EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Australian Q2 GDP Stronger Than Forecast

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
UK
ENERGY (BBG): “Offshore Energies UK warns that without a competitive fiscal regime, the UK will face a strategic exodus of critical supply chain capability as companies invest overseas.”
EU
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (RTRS): “Moscow expects talks between Russia and Ukraine to continue but "new territorial realities" must be recognised and new systems of security guarantees formed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in remarks published on Wednesday.”
TRADE (MNI): The European Union’s trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc looks likely to be approved by both member states and the European Parliament, as dissatisfaction with a deal struck with the U.S. fuels support for a counter-balancing arrangement with South America , EU trade sources told MNI.
TRADE (POLITICO): “EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič on Monday made an 11th-hour intervention to stop the European Commission from issuing a penalty against American tech giant Google for its search advertising practices, amid continued trade threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.”
POLAND (DW): “On Wednesday, Nawrocki will return to Washington, this time as Poland's president. Wednesday's visit will be about more than just photo ops and a political show for the cameras. This time, the focus will be on policies — in particular security policy, said Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the chancellery of the Polish president.”
ECB (BBG): " European Central Bank interest rates are firmly on hold for now and the next step could be a cut or hike, according to Primoz Dolenc, acting governor of Slovenia’s central bank."
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): US District Judge Jia Cobb on Tuesday gave the Department of Justice until Thursday to file another brief opposing Lisa Cook’s request for immediate court action stopping the Federal Reserve from carrying out Trump’s directive firing her.
FED (WSJ): “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is planning to start a blitz of interviews on Friday in search of a candidate to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter. The interview process would continue next week, the people said, adding that Bessent would talk to candidates either in person or by video conference.”
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): U.S. manufacturing will remain in contraction with high prices and a declining workforce, and an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its September meeting is unlikely to help, Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Susan Spence told MNI.
TARIFFS (BBG): “ President Donald Trump said his administration would ask the Supreme Court for an expedited ruling in hopes of overturning a federal court decision that many of his tariffs were illegally imposed, arguing it is essential to keep his trade policy intact.”
TECH (BBG): “ Alphabet Inc.’s Google will be required to share online search data with rivals while avoiding harsher penalties, including the forced sale of its Chrome business, a judge ruled in the biggest US antitrust case in almost three decades.”
OTHER
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Australia’s economy grew 0.6% q/q in Q2, 10 basis points above expectations and up from 0.3% in Q1, while unit labour costs rose 0.7%, according to National Accounts data released Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. GDP per hour worked, a measure of productivity, increased 0.3% q/q and 0.2% y/y.
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): “S&P Global Ratings is “comfortable” with New Zealand’s sovereign rating outlook, though it’s closely watching the nation’s current account and budget deficits.”
JAPAN (BBG): "Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to exchange views on the economy and financial markets including currencies, after the yen weakened amid rising pressure on Ishiba to resign."
CHINA
SERVICES (BBG): “China’s services activity expanded at the fastest pace in over a year in August, a private survey showed, as the summer travel season powered demand during what has otherwise been a relatively weak stretch for domestic consumption.”
SOUTHBOUND FLOWS (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): "The net inflow of southbound funds, an important driver for the Hong Kong stock market rebound, has exceeded the HKD1 trillion-mark to set a historical high as of Sept 2 this year, Shanghai Securities News reported."
FISCAL (YICAI): "China has transferred part of its state-owned capital to replenish the social security fund, and introduced tax exemption to support the transfer, Yicai.com reported."
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY229.1 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY150.8 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY379.9 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1108 Weds; -0.46% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1108 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1089 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1494 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA Q2 GDP +0.6% Q/Q; EST. 0.5%; Q1 +0.3%
AUSTRALIA Q2 GDP +1.8% Y/Y; EST. 1.6%; Q1 +1.4%
AUSTRALIA Q2 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE +0.9% Q/Q; Q1 +0.4%
AUSTRALIA Q2 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE -0.8% Q/Q; Q1 -0.1%
AUSTRALIA Q2 HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATIO FELL TO 4.2%; Q1 5.2%
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL AUG. F COMPOSITE PMI 55.5; JUL. 53.8
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL AUG. F SERVICES PMI 55.8; JUL. 54.1
NEW ZEALAND ANZ COMMODITY PRICES AUG. +0.7% M/M; JULY -1.8%
JAPAN S&P GLOBAL AUG. F SERVICES PMI 53.1; JUL. 53.6
JAPAN S&P GLOBAL AUG. F COMPOSITE PMI 52; JUL. 51.6
CHINA RATINGDOG PMI COMPOSITE AUG. 51.9; JUL. 50.8
CHINA RATINGDOG PMI SERVICES AUG. 53.0; EST. 52.5; JUL. 52.6
S. KOREA Q2 GDP +0.6% Y/Y, REVISED FROM +0.5%; Q1 0.0%
S. KOREA Q2 GDP +0.7% Q/Q, REVISED FROM +0.6%; Q1 -0.2%
S. KOREA AUG. FOREIGN RESERVES $416.29B; JUL. $411.33B
MARKETS
The TYZ5 range has been 112-03 to 112-08+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-04, down 0-00+ from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Back End Yields Higher, But Away From Best Levels, 30yr Auction Tomorrow
JGB futures have maintained a negative bias, with the Sep future last near 137.34, -.18 versus settlement levels. We haven't tested sub 137.20 so far (session lows rest at 137.23). Broader trends have been skewed towards weaker futures with US 10yr futures back to flat after initially opening firmer. Aussie bond futures are down sharply, aided by a better Q2 GDP outcome.
AUSSIE BONDS: Yields Surge, Led By Front End, Q2 GDP Beats, RBA Gov Speaks Later
ACGB yields are higher across the benchmarks. The move started with the back end when onshore markets opened, which was consistent with global developments. However, as the session progressed, front end yields have outperformed, aided by the Q2 GDP beat. A better China services PMI read has also likely aided these moves.
Fig 1: RBA Dated OIS Higher Post Q2 GDP

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
BONDS: NZGBS: Back End Yields Notably Higher, 2/10s Curve At +148bps
NZGB yields are flat to 6bps higher, led by the back end of the curve. The steepening theme evident globally has been seen strongly today in NZGB markets. The 2yr yield is barely changed and anchored sub 3.0% at this stage. The 10yr yield is up close to 6bps, last at 4.46% and closing the gap with pre RBNZ highs from August close to 4.50%. These moves leave the NZGB 2/10s curve at +148bps, closing in on April highs near +154bps.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Shorts Being Pared Back Into NFP ?
The BBDXY has had a range of 1206.85 - 1208.92 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1208, +0.10%. The USD has again found some solid demand around the 1200 area and is again attempting to bounce higher off this base. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. The USD is looking comfortable for the moment above this support, not sure we get any clear direction though until the market sees what the NFP print is.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Back To Overnight Highs On A Potential Early Election
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 148.36-148.92, Asia is currently trading around 148.85, +0.32%. USD/JPY was bid all session moving back toward the overnight highs on a potential early election and 30-Year JGB’s blowing out to 3.28%. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. The price action looks pretty constructive but I would not be expecting any major extensions until the market has had a look at the NFP on Friday unless we get some other catalyst, could an early election be that ?
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Fails To Push Higher On GDP
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6513 - 0.6525 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6520, +0.02%. The AUD tried to bounce on the better GDP data but could not follow through and has drifted back to its open. The AUD finds itself firmly back in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 with little clear long-term direction. The market will be looking towards NFP at the end of the week to hopefully be a catalyst.
Fig 1: AUD/JPY spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Drifts Lower After Rejecting 0.5900
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5854 - 0.5867 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5860, -0.12%. The NZD topped out above 0.5900 and moved lower with risk overnight. The NZD sellers should continue to be around looking to fade any bounce back towards the 0.5950 area initially. The USD finding some demand finally has helped put a top in above 0.5900 for now, though NFP on Friday will have a say in if that remains the case.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Weak Day for China as Others Trend Sideways
The NIKKEI in Japan declined today as political uncertainty increased after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s key power broker announced his intention to resign with local media suggesting other key power brokers within the LDP are intending to quit. The move higher in developed market bond yields has seen a cautious day in Asia with China down across major bourses, whilst the bounce back in Jakarta continues.
Oil Lower But In A Narrow Range, Supply Events Remain Focus
Oil prices are moderately lower during today’s APAC session after rising around 1.5% on Tuesday as risk sentiment is weaker. WTI is down 0.3% to $65.41/bbl after rising to $65.72 earlier then falling to $65.35, a narrow range. Brent is 0.3% lower at $68.92/bbl following a peak of $69.24 and trough of $68.87. The USD index is up 0.1%.
Gold Retreats From New Record, Benefiting From Risk Appetite Pullback
Gold prices reached a new record high of $3546.96/oz during today’s APAC trading as risk appetite deteriorated. They usually move in the opposite direction to the US dollar but today (BBDXY +0.1%) and yesterday (BBDXY +0.5%) they have rallied despite USD strength. Expectations of Fed easing and concerns over attacks on central bank independence from the US administration have driven bullion higher, while the greenback appears to be normalising with its risk premium declining (calculated by Bloomberg).
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/09/2025 | 0700/0300 | * | Turkey CPI | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ECB Lagarde Speaks at ESRB Conference | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 0730/0830 | BOE Mann at Signum's London Westminster Day roundtable | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0815/0915 | BOE Breeden at Innovation in Money and Payments Conference | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EZ PPI | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 03/09/2025 | - | *** | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 1315/1415 | BOE testify at TSC: Bailey, Greene, Lombardelli, Taylor | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS quits Rate | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1730/1330 | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | ||
| 03/09/2025 | 1800/1400 | Fed Beige Book | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | Decision Maker Panel data | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EZ Retail Sales | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0930/1130 | ECB Cipollone Speaks at Digital Euro Hearing, European Parliament | ||
| 04/09/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | ADP Employment Report | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Non-Farm Productivity (f) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |