MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Asia Pac Equities On The Front Foot
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- BESSENT HINTS FED SHOULD BE OPEN TO A HALF-POINT RATE CUT - BBG
- TRUMP ADVISERS CONSIDER CHANGES TO HOW GOVERNMENT COLLECTS JOBS DATA - WSJ
- JAPAN JULY CGPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; IMPORT PRICE DROPS - MNI BRIEF
- AUSSIE WAGES RISE 0.8% Q/Q IN Q2 - MNI BRIEF
Fig 1: Australia wages ex bonuses y/y%
EU
UKRAINE (BBG): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he won’t cede the eastern region of Donbas to Russia and pushed for Kyiv to be included in talks as the US and Russian leaders prepare to meet on Friday.”
US/RUSSIA (BBG): “Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to prepare for Friday’s summit between the two countries’ presidents, even as he reiterated the meeting may not lead to a breakthrough in the Ukraine conflict.”
UKRAINE (TIMES & STAR): “Sir Keir will join a virtual call at midday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. They will then be joined by Mr Trump and US vice president JD Vance. Later, the Prime Minister will co-chair a Coalition of the Willing meeting to update wider partners on the day’s discussions.”
GERMANY (POLITICO): “If a national election were now held, 26 percent of Germans would vote for the AfD, according to a poll carried out by the Forsa Institute for Social Research and Statistical Analysis. That result puts the far-right party ahead of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s mainstream conservative bloc, which slid to second with 24 percent support in the poll.”
NORWAY (MNI NORGES WATCH): Norges Bank is expected to leave its key policy rate on hold at 4.25% in August, following up its June cut by sitting tight this month, with market expectations for a couple more cuts later in the year.
US
FED (BBG): “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Federal Reserve ought to be open to a bigger, 50 basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate next month, after having skipped a move at the last meeting.”
FED (MNI): Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being and interest rate cuts could be counterproductive, with an economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation stuck above target.
FED (MNI BRIEF): The Federal Reserve is well-placed to either weaker growth or higher inflation emanating from tariffs and other factors, though a softer economic backdrop appears to have become a predominant concern as tariff inflation fails to materialize, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday.
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): U.S. CPI headline and core inflation cooled to 0.197% and 0.322% in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The 12-month rate for headline inflation was a tenth below expectations at 2.7% and core CPI was a tenth above at 3.1%.
JOBS (WSJ): “The Trump administration is considering changes to how the federal government collects and reports jobs data, according to White House officials, following President Trump's decision to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner earlier this month in the aftermath of weak employment numbers.”
JOBS (MNI BRIEF): The White House on Tuesday said it expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to continue to produce monthly jobs reports and going forward it will assess new means and methods for gathering key data that Wall Street so carefully analyzes.
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.6% y/y in July, easing from June’s unrevised 2.9%, while import prices posted a sixth straight decline, Bank of Japan data showed Wednesday.
JAPAN (BBG): " Japan’s chief trade negotiator and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s right hand man said he’ll support Ishiba if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party calls an early leadership race."
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): The Wage Price Index rose 0.8% q/q in Q2, in line with expectations, and 3.4% y/y – 10 basis points above market forecasts and unchanged from Q1, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday.
SOUTH KOREA (BBG): "South Korea unveiled a 210 trillion won ($152 billion) fiscal plan for 2026-2030 to support President Lee Jae Myung’s core pledges, with funding to be drawn from enhanced revenue measures and greater spending efficiency. "
CHINA
CONSUMER (BBG): “China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities.”
CONSMER (YICAI): "Consumers can receive an interest subsidy of 1% on loans for single purchases of no more than CNY50,000 for goods including vehicles and home furnishing, Yicai.com reported citing a statement by the Ministry of Finance and other departments."
E-COMMERCE (CFLP): "China's e-commerce logistics index was 112.0 points in July, up 0.2 from June, setting a new high for the year, Securities Daily reported citing data by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing. "
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY20 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY118.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY20 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY138.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4198% at 09:35 am local time from the close of 1.4444% on Tuesday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 47 on Tuesday, the same as the close on Monday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1350 Weds; -0.73% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1350 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1418 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1768 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND JULY RETAIL CARD SPENDING +0.2% M/M; JUNE +0.5%
NEW ZEALAND JULY TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.6% M/M; JUNE -0.1%
AUSTRALIA Q2 WAGE PRICE INDEX +0.8% Q/Q; EST. 0.8%; Q1 +0.9%
AUSTRALIA Q2 WAGE PRICE INDEX +3.4% Y/Y; EST. 3.3%; Q1 +3.4%
AUSTRALIA Q2 HOME LOANS +2.0% Q/Q; EST. 2.0%; Q1 -1.2%
AUSTRALIA Q2 OWNER-OCCUPIER LOANS +2.4%; Q1 -1.8%
AUSTRALIA Q2 INVESTOR LOANS +1.4%; Q1 -0.1%
JAPAN JULY PRODUCER PRICES +2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%; JUNE 2.9%
JAPAN JULY PRODUCER PRICES +0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%; JUNE -0.1%
S.KOREA'S JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE S/ADJ 2.5%; EST. 2.6%; JUNE 2.6%
S.KOREA'S JULY EMPLOYED +171K Y/Y; JUNE +183K Y/Y
S.KOREA MONEY SUPPLY L SA JUNE +0.5% M/M; MAY +0.5%
S.KOREA MONEY SUPPLY M2 SA JUNE +0.6% M/M; MAY +1.1%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Yield Moves Muted In A Quiet Session
The TYU5 range has been 111-23 to 111-27 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 111-27, up 0-01 from the previous close.
- The US 2-year yield is trading around 3.73%, unchanged from its close.
- The US 10-year yield has edged slightly lower trading around 4.285%.
- Price action in the long-end is a little disconcerting for the bulls though the 10-Year yield still trades below its 4.30/35%% pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%. There should still be buyers of treasuries on bounces back towards 4.30/35%, looking to initially test the 4.10% area.
- Ben Hunt(Epsilon Theory) on X: “If we’re gonna cut in Sept (90% mkt odds as I write this) with core at 3.1% and rising, wages at 3.9% and rising, stocks and home prices at all-time highs … Can we at least stop talking about the Fed’s 2% inflation ‘target’? It’s just insulting to continue this charade.”
- Jim Bianco on X: “YoY Core CPI, 3.1%. Up 0.3% in the last 3-months. In the last 40 YEARS, only once has the Fed CUT rates when core was above 3% AND the 3m chg was >0.3%, Oct 1990 to Mar 1991. Agree with @EpsilonTheory, the 2% inflation target is dead. We are accepting a higher inflation world.”
- Data/Events: MBA Mortgage Applications
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Cheaper After Poor 5Y Auction
JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -26 compared to settlement levels, after today’s disappointing 5-year auction.
- Today’s 5-year JGB auction showed poor signals on demand. The low price came in line with expectations at 99.72, and the bid-to-cover ratio declined to 2.9616x from 3.5411x. Meanwhile the tail widened slightly to 0.03 from 0.02. The result aligns with the poor demand signals seen at this month’s 10-year auction. With yields higher and the 2s/5s curve steeper than last month, today’s outcome represents a deterioration in overall demand conditions.
- "JAPAN'S AKAZAWA: NOT BAD IF TRUMP EXEC ORDER COMES BY MID SEPT, US CAN'T GET INVESTMENT HELP IF PROMISES NOT KEPT. JAPAN COULD INCREASE ACTUAL US INVESTMENT PERCENTAGE, 1-2%, INVESTMENT FOLLOWS PAST CASES, COULD BE HIGHER" - BBG
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's twist-steepener.
- Cash JGBs are showing a twist-flattening, with benchmark yields 3bps higher to 2bps lower. The benchmark 5-year yield is 2.6bps higher at 1.069% versus the cycle high of 1.19%.
- Swaps rates flat to 1bp higher, with swap spreads tighter out to the 20-year.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty ahead of Q2 GDP on Friday.
AUSSIE BONDS: Bull-Flattener Ahead Of Employment Data Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +1.5 & XM flat) are slightly stronger after today’s wages data.
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-steepener.
- With May and June employment gains disappointing, tomorrow’s July data will be monitored closely for signs that the labour market has turned. Q2 employment averaged 28.8k/month up from Q1’s 1.4k but slightly lower than Q2 2024’s 32.2k. Bloomberg consensus expects a 25k gain in July after June’s +2k, slightly below the Q2 average. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline 0.1pp to 4.2%, returning to the Q2 average.
- In its updated staff projections on Tuesday, the RBA continued to expect the Q4 2025 unemployment rate to be 4.3% and then stay there. Employment growth was revised up to 1.6% from 1.4% in Q4 2025 and it then slows to 1.4% and remains there over the rest of the forecast horizon.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer with a steeper 3/10 curve and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -5bps.
- The bills strip is flat to +2.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in September is given a 42% probability, with a cumulative 40bps of easing priced by year-end.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 2.75% 2 1 November 2029 bond on Friday.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Modest Bull-Steepener
NZGBs closed showing a bull-steepener, with benchmark yields 2bps lower to 1bp higher.
- The NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed flat and 2bps wider, respectively.
- July NZ card transactions rose 0.6% m/m, the highest monthly increase this year, but the annual rate is still down 1.0%. Retail spending was up 0.2% m/m rising 1.2% y/y, signalling a gradual recovery in nominal consumption. It has been trending higher since the March trough at -1.8% y/y. The RBNZ is likely to cut rates on August 20 as inflation is in the band and the economic recovery remains subdued, and the July card data was consistent with this.
- Swap rates closed 1-2bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly softer across meetings. 23bps of easing is priced for August, with a cumulative 41bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty ahead of the July BNZ manufacturing PMI Index and July monthly price series on Friday.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$250mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
FOREX: Asia Wrap - USD Bears Back In Charge ?
The BBDXY has had a range of 1202.63 - 1204.07 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1203, -0.02%. The USD collapsed in the N/Y Session as the market rushed to re-enter or add to USD shorts. This is clearly the side the market is more comfortable trading and a sustained break below 1197 could see the move lower regain momentum and a retest of the year's lows.
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1670 - 1.1688, Asia is currently trading 1.1685. The market moved very quickly back to 1.1700 where it stalled on its first attempt to challenge this area. Will this second attempt have the impetus to break through.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3493 - 1.3508, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3505. The pair bounced nicely off the 1.3100/1.3200 support area. Like a few other G10 currencies the reasons to fade this initial impulse higher don’t look as strong, as the USD begins to look vulnerable again.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1817 - 7.1883, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1350, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1830. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
- Cross asset : SPX +0.05%, Gold $3350, US 10-Year 4.287%, BBDXY 1203, Crude Oil $63.23
- Data/Events : Germany Wholesale Price Index/CPI, Spain CPI
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Finds Demand Sub 148.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.70 - 148.17, Asia is currently trading around 148.05, +0.15%. USD/JPY’s gains going into the US CPI were quickly reversed after the print. Price is currently still holding above the support area between 146.00/147.00, a sustained move below this support is needed to turn the momentum potentially lower again. Until then, the recent range of 146.50-148.50 will continue to dominate. Decent demand seen below 148.00 in our session.
- JAPAN DATA July PPI In Line, Suggests Further Moderation In Headline Y/Y CPI: Japan's July PPI was close to expectations. The m/m outcome printed at +0.2%, in line with expectations, while the June outcome was revised to 0.1%m/m (originally reported as -0.2%). In y/y terms we printed at 2.6%, versus 2.5% forecast and 2.9% prior.
- JAPAN DATA Import Prices Up For First Month Since Jan, Y/Y Still Negative : For July, export and import prices both rose in m/m terms. Export prices were up 1.6%, while import prices were up 2.4%m/m. For import prices this was the first m/m rise since January of this year. In y/y terms, both export and import prices were still in negative territory, but up from the June levels. Export prices were -5.4%y/y, while imports were -10.4%.
- "JAPAN'S AKAZAWA: NOT BAD IF TRUMP EXEC ORDER COMES BY MID SEPT, US CAN'T GET INVESTMENT HELP IF PROMISES NOT KEPT. JAPAN COULD INCREASE ACTUAL US INVESTMENT PERCENTAGE, 1-2%, INVESTMENT FOLLOWS PAST CASES, COULD BE HIGHER" - BBG
- "AKAZAWA: WILL SUPPORT ISHIBA IF HE RUNS AGAIN FOR LDP HEAD" - BBG
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 147.00($1.06b), 146.85($751m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 149.00($1.15b Aug 14) - BBG.
- CFTC data shows asset managers reduced their JPY longs +60532( Last +75119), leveraged funds slightly reduced their newly built short JPY position -29308(Last -31280).
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Consolidates Back Above 0.6500
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6517 - 0.6532 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6530, +0.02%. US equities roared higher as the market gets ready for more rate cuts, the slight reprieve for the USD going into the print was quickly reversed. The more cuts being priced in increases the pressure on an already bearish USD market. I felt the bounce back towards 0.6550 offered a good risk/reward to fade initially but if the US starts pricing in more aggressive cuts can the AUD ignore it? The Price remains firmly in the 0.6350-0.6650 range, if the USD extends lower can it test the top end?
- MNI AUSTRALIA: Consensus Expects Some Normalisation In July Labour Data. With May and June employment gains disappointing, the July data will be monitored closely for signs that the labour market has turned. Q2 employment averaged 28.8k/month up from Q1’s 1.4k but slightly lower than Q2 2024’s 32.2k. Bloomberg consensus expects a 25k gain in July after June’s +2k, slightly below the Q2 average. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline 0.1pp to 4.2%, returning to the Q2 average.
- MNI AU DATA: Public Pay Growth Outpacing Private Sector. The Q2 WPI rose 0.8% q/q leaving annual inflation at 3.4% y/y after a recent trough at 3.2% in Q4 2024 and 4.1% in Q2 2024. Public sector quarterly wage gains outpaced the private sector for the third consecutive quarter at 1.0% q/q compared with 0.8%. Public wage growth is now up 0.1pp to 3.7% y/y, while private was 3.4% y/y. The RBA had forecast 3.3% for Q2 and in its August projections is expecting the WPI to trend lower to around 3% by Q2 2026. 2025 to date is showing some stabilisation in wage inflation.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6575(AUD746m), 0.6550(AUD597m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD1.25b Aug 14), 0.6690(AUD583m Aug 14), 0.6523(AUD562m Aug15) - BBG
- AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 96.40 - 96.70, Asia is trading around 96.70. The pair has bounced and is testing its first resistance around the 96.50/97.00 area. There should be sellers around here initially, but a break above 97.50 though would negate this and reinstate the momentum higher.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Slightly Higher As USD Bears Wrestle Back Control
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5945 - 0.5961 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5960, +0.08%. US equities roared higher as the market got ready for more rate cuts, the slight reprieve for the USD going into the print was quickly reversed and more cuts being priced in will increase the pressure on an already bearish USD market. Risk has ben pretty mute today, E-minis +0.05%, NQU5 +0.09%. The NZD/USD is still firmly within its 0.5850-0.6150 range, the CPI print last night will probably give pause to those wanting to fade the bounce, can it give it the boost it needs to regain upward momentum though, time will tell.
- MNI NZ: Gradual Recovery In Retail Card Spending. July NZ card transactions rose 0.6% m/m, the highest monthly increase this year, but the annual rate is still down 1.0%. Retail spending was up 0.2% m/m rising 1.2% y/y, signalling a gradual recovery in nominal consumption. It has been trending higher since the March trough at -1.8% y/y. The RBNZ is likely to cut rates on August 20 as inflation is in the band and the economic recovery remains subdued, and the July card data was consistent with this.
- (Bloomberg) - "China Consumer Loan Subsidy Expected to Drive Lending Recovery. China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities." BBG
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5825(NZD300m Aug 14). - BBG
- CFTC Data shows Asset Managers have cut their longs completely and started to rebuild a short in the NZD -1811(Last +3903), the Leveraged community added to their shorts slightly -6778(Last -6250).
- AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0955 - 1.0969, currently trading 1.0960. The Cross continues to trade sideways after stalling towards the 1.1000 area once more. The range looks to be 1.0850-1.1000 for now.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Mostly A Sea Of Green Following US Lead, Aust Lags
Asian stocks markets are nearly higher across the board (with the ASX 200 and Philippines bourse the main outliers at this stage). After very strong gains in cash Tuesday trade, as speculation grew for Fed easing after the US CPI print), US futures are close to unchanged so far in Wednesday trade. Nevertheless, the positive spillover is evident for most parts of the region.
- Japan markets continue to rally, the NKY 225, up around +1.4% and above 43300, which is a fresh record high. The Topix is up +0.90%, while a poor 5yr debt auction has impacted sentiment at this stage. Positive spill over from US moves have been cited as a major driver so far today.
- In US trade on Tuesday, the SOX index rose nearly 3.0%. The Taiex, in Taiwan, was up in the first part of trade, tracking to a fresh record high, but is now back around flat. South Korea's Kospi is up 0.65%, back above the 3200 level. Foreign investors have been net buyers so far today (per NBUY on BBG), while onshore institutional and retail investors have been net sellers.
- China and Hong Kong markets are also higher. The CSI 300 last around +0.90%. Earlier we heard from the authorities who outlined plans on consumption subsidies (via subsidizing personal loans) to boost consumption. The HSI is up around +1.90%, with the tech sub index +2.35%.
- In South East Asia, Thailand markets have returned from a two-day break and are higher by 0.75%. We have the BoT later, which is expected to cut, albeit as a close call. Malaysia and Indonesia are both up over 1%, but the Philippines is lagging.
- In Australia, the ASX 200 is struggling, last down around 0.50%. Reported profit taking on CBA (after it posted results) is weighing on financial related stocks.
OIL: Crude Range Trading, EIA US Stock Data & IEA Report Out Later
After falling around a percent on Tuesday, oil prices are little changed during APAC trading as the market waits for today’s IEA monthly report and US EIA inventory data, as well as the outcome of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. Ahead of this European and US leaders are holding a virtual meeting Wednesday to discuss Ukraine while President Zelenskyy has said they won’t cede the Donbas region. A truce is going to be difficult to reach thus making an easing of sanctions on Russia a distant prospect.
- WTI is slightly higher at around $63.23/bbl, close to the intraday high of $63.26. Brent is 0.2% higher at $66.23/bbl after rising to $66.24. Holiday-affected trading is resulting in lower volumes.
- The US EIA revised higher its global excess supply expectations for 2026 in its August report, while OPEC projected a tighter market (it tends to be the most optimistic of the three organisations). The IEA publishes later today and its output projections are likely to be monitored given ongoing excess supply concerns, which weigh on oil prices when geopolitical risks are in the background.
- Bloomberg reported that US oil inventories grew 1.5mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. In term of products, there was a gasoline drawdown of 1.8mn but distillate rose 300k. The official EIA data is out later Wednesday.
- Today the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bostic speak. Apart from July updates for German & Spanish CPI, there are no data of note.
Gold Range Trading Post-US CPI Data, Fed Speakers Later
Gold prices have been moving in a narrow range during today’s APAC session with few drivers after rising 0.2% to $3348.26/oz on Tuesday as the market priced in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut in September, now around 95%, following July US CPI data showing subdued goods inflation despite higher import duties.
- Bullion fell to a low of $3342.78 before rising to $3354.35 to be 0.1% higher today at $3351.1. It is trading between initial resistance at $3409.2, 8 August high, and support at $3268.2, 30 July low. The US dollar and yields are also steady.
- Silver has outperformed today rising 0.7% to $38.193, close to the intraday high. It fell to $37.85 early in the session. The technical trend remains bullish with initial resistance at $39.655. Initial support is at $36.216, 31 July low.
- Equities are generally stronger with the Hang Seng up 1.9% and Nikkei +1.6% but S&P e-mini flat and ASX down 0.5%. Oil prices are flat with WTI around $63.18/bbl. Copper is down 0.3%.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bostic speak. Apart from July updates for German & Spanish CPI, there are no data of note.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 13/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 13/08/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 13/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 13/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 13/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 13/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 13/08/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 14/08/2025 | - |  NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 14/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | GDP First Estimate |
| 14/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 14/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | Industrial Production |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (p) |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Employment |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
