MNI ASIA OPEN: Thai Election, BOE/ECB Policy & US Data Ahead

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI THAILAND: MNI Publishes Election Preview
• MNI ECB: Analyst 2026-27 Rate Path Views Ahead Of Tomorrow's ECB Decision
• MNI US DATA: BLS Reschedules JOLTS For Thursday, NFPs/CPI Delayed A Few Days
• MNI US: Trump Posts on "Excellent Telephone Conversation" With China's Xi
• MNI SECURITY: Russia's Position Unchanged Ahead Of 2nd Round Of UAE Talks - Kremlin
• MNI US DATA: ISM Services Opens 2026 On Firm Ground, But So Do Price Pressures
• MNI US DATA: ADP Employment Sees Modest Miss and Large Downward Revisions On QCEW

US

MNI US DATA: BLS Reschedules JOLTS For Thursday, NFPs/CPI Delayed A Few Days

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has rescheduled the following releases following the government-shutdown related delay - link 

• JOLTS to Thu Feb 5 (was Feb 3) at 1000ET
• Nonfarm payrolls to Wed Feb 11 (was Feb 6) at 0830ET
• CPI (and Real Earnings) to Fri Feb 13 (was Feb 11) at 0830ET
• Presumably they both need a little more time to compile CPI - and in any case wouldn't have wanted the inflation and rescheduled Employment Situation report to clash.
• We also expect weekly jobless claims data to be published Thursday as usual.

NEWS

MNI ECB: Analyst 2026-27 Rate Path Views Ahead Of Tomorrow's ECB Decision

• The ECB is unanimously expected to leave rates on hold at tomorrow's ECB decision.
• There is a minor easing bias priced in for 2026 as a whole but rate cut calls remain few and far between across analysts, with only BofA and Morgan Stanley formally looking for cuts amongst the 27 views reviewed below.
• There are widespread expectations of rates on hold through 2026, with the exception being SocGen and TD Securities looking for a 25bp hike at the end of the year.
• Of those specifying rate hike views, most expect them to start in the middle to second half of 2027.
• See the full MNI ECB Preview here (link). 

MNI THAILAND: MNI Publishes Election Preview

Thailand holds a snap general election on Sunday, 8 February, to elect all 500 members of the House of Representatives. This follows a chaotic period in Thai politics after the 2023 election. Since that election, two prime ministers from the populist Pheu Thai party have been forced from office by the courts, a hot war with Cambodia broke out over long-running border disputes, and the conservative Bhumjaithai Party formed a minority government, which for the first time saw the progressive People’s Party provide support to an incumbent administration. 

MNI US: Trump Posts on "Excellent Telephone Conversation" With China's Xi

US President Trump posts the following on Truth Social: "I have just completed an excellent telephone conversation with President Xi, of China. It was a long and thorough call, where many important subjects were discussed, including Trade, Military, the April trip that I will be making to China (which I very much look forward to!), Taiwan, the War between Russia/Ukraine, the current situation with Iran, the purchase of Oil and Gas by China from the United States, the consideration by China of the purchase of additional Agricultural products including lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!), Airplane engine deliveries, and numerous other subjects, all very positive! The relationship with China, and my personal relationship with President Xi, is an extremely good one, and we both realize how important it is to keep it that way. I believe that there will be many positive results achieved over the next three years of my Presidency having to do with President Xi, and the People’s Republic of China! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

MNI CHINA-RUSSIA: Putin Advisor-Putin & Xi Reaffirmed Close Cooperation In Call

Russian state-run Tass reports comments from President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushako,v following Putin's call with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier today. Ushakov says that during the 1hr25mins call, the two leaders reaffirmed that "Russia and China can rely on each other." Says they "exchanged opinions on global events amid a very tense and explosive situation in several regions of the world." 

MNI SECURITY: Russia's Position Unchanged Ahead Of 2nd Round Of UAE Talks - Kremlin

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said that Russia's position remains "unchanged", ahead of a second round of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi today, per Reuters. Peskov added Russian troops would keep fighting until Kyiv made "decisions" that could bring the war to an end. 

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Modest Late Day Reversal W/ US/Iran Talks "Back On", Domestic Data Resumes

• Treasuries see-sawed back in range late Monday, curves twisting steeper with the short end outperforming after the bell (2s10s +2.227 at 71.610).
• Currently, TYH6 trades -.5 at 111-18.5 (111-15.5 low / 111-23.5 high), gains are considered corrective and for bears, sights are on key support at 111-09, the Jan 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• Risk-off to risk-on (less off): midday support for Tsys, equities weaker after Axios story making the rounds that plans for US/Iran talks on Friday are collapsing w/subject of nuclear weapons, missile program a non-starter.
• The geopol risk narrative cooled late: US Iran talks "back on" according to Barak Ravid posts on X - crude retreated from earlier highs, WTO appr 64.50 vs. 65.53 high. Stocks reacting positively (Nasdaq still underperforming with chip and software services stocks underperforming).
• Economic data to resume with stop-gap funding bill through September signed by Pres Trump late Tuesday, JOLTS expected Thursday at 1000ET, NFP on Feb 11, CPI pushed to Feb 13. Both the BOE and ECB decisions expected too.
• The USD index has matched the most recent recovery highs at 97.73 and has weighed on the precious metals space, with spot gold briefly extending an impressive intraday pullback to print around $4,850 after reaching a $5,091 high overnight.
• Meanwhile earnings expected after the close include: Allstate Corp, McKesson Corp, Alphabet Inc, O'Reilly Automotive, Coherent Corp, Snap Inc and QUALCOMM.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: ISM Services Opens 2026 On Firm Ground, But So Do Price Pressures

January's ISM Services report was solid overall, with some mixed dynamics beneath the surface including continued persistence in price pressures. Overall it shouldn't change perceptions of activity in the services sector, which entered 2026 on solid footing and appears to be maintaining that momentum.

• The headline PMI came in at 53.8 for a joint-15 month high. This was a steady reading vs December's 53.8, revised down from 54.4 as part of the annual seasonal adjustment revisions; it's unclear whether the consensus for a drop to 53.5 considered this revision.

MNI US DATA: Services PMI Follows Manufacturing With Upward Revision In January

The services PMI was revised up 0.2pp to 52.7 in the final January release after Monday's more sizeable 0.5pp upward revision to the final manufacturing release to 52.4. It left the composite PMI at 53.0 in January after 52.7 in December although it has still moderated from the 54.5 averaged through Jul-Nov 2025. 

• S&P Global US Services PMI:  52.7 (cons & flash 52.5) in Jan final after 52.5 in Dec and 54.1 in Nov
• S&P Global US Composite PMI: 53.0 (cons 52.9, flash 52.8) in Jan final after 52.7 in Dec and 54.2 in Nov

MNI US DATA: ADP Revisions See Healthcare As A Major Driver, Echoing Payrolls

The wide-ranging revisions have seen the education & healthcare sector provide a much larger contribution, more closely reflecting trends in BLS private sector job creation. Education & healthcare jobs increased a cumulative 642k over 2025 vs the 28k previously estimated.

• This net revision of +614k across 2025 was in stark contrast to most industries considering the cumulative revision of -216k. The next largest positive revision was other services at +39k whilst the largest downward revision was trade, transportation & utilities at -325k.  

MNI US DATA: ADP Employment Sees Modest Miss and Large Downward Revisions On QCEW

ADP employment was a little softer than weekly tracking had implied with a larger miss against Bloomberg consensus. It was part of a release that was clouded by some large annual revisions, negative across 2025 as a whole but with a small net upward revision to Q4. 

• ADP private employment was softer than Bloomberg consensus in January, rising 22k vs 45k expected, with the latest weekly series’ 31k monthly equivalent having hinted at risk of a downward surprise as we had flagged.

MNI US TSYS/SUPPLY: Feb Refunding: Coupon Guidance Tweak, Monitoring Bills Demand

Treasury tweaked slightly its policy statement's guidance on future auction size increases, adhering to keeping coupon and FRN auction sizes for "at least the next several quarter" and noting it "continues to evaluate" potential future increases. It added a sentence saying "Treasury is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector," a hint that future upsizing may be led by short-end increases. MNI expects the next upsizing to be in November and consensus is fairly split between November and February 2027.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 298.57 points (0.61%) at 49538.68
S&P E-Mini Future down 26 points (-0.37%) at 6916.75
Nasdaq down 315.8 points (-1.4%) at 22946.66
US 10-Yr yield is up 1 bps at 4.2755%
US Mar 10-Yr futures are down 0.5/32 at 111-18.5
EURUSD down 0.0014 (-0.12%) at 1.1805
USDJPY up 1.18 (0.76%) at 156.93
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $1.29 (2.04%) at $64.49
Gold is up $1.87 (0.04%) at $4946.67

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 24.88 points (-0.42%) at 5970.47
FTSE 100 up 87.75 points (0.85%) at 10402.34
German DAX down 177.75 points (-0.72%) at 24603.04
French CAC 40 up 82.66 points (1.01%) at 8262.16

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update:
3M10Y +0.526, 58.942 (L: 57.086 / H: 60.141)
2Y10Y +2.027, 71.41 (L: 68.149 / H: 71.839)
2Y30Y +2.993, 135.244 (L: 130.909 / H: 136.272)
5Y30Y +1.968, 107.888 (L: 104.81 / H: 109.314)
Current futures levels:
Mar 2-Yr futures up 0.75/32 at 104-5.875 (L: 104-04.125 / H: 104-06.5)
Mar 5-Yr futures steady at at 108-23.75 (L: 108-21 / H: 108-26.75)
Mar 10-Yr futures steady at at 111-19 (L: 111-15.5 / H: 111-23.5)
Mar 30-Yr futures down 2/32 at 114-17 (L: 114-11 / H: 114-27)
Mar Ultra futures down 6/32 at 116-20 (L: 116-16 / H: 117-04)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 112-31   High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 112-22   High Jan 7
• RES 2: 112-07   50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112-02   High Feb 02
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-20 @ 1210 ET Feb 04
• SUP 1: 111-09   Low Jan 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111-00   Round number support
• SUP 3: 110-30+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing 
• SUP 4: 110-22+ 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing

Treasuries continue to trade below Monday’s high and a bearish theme remains intact. Resistance to watch is 112-07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. Until then, gains are considered corrective and for bears, sights are on key support at 111-09, the Jan 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Mar 26-Dec 26):
Mar 26 +0.005 at 96.370
Jun 26 +0.005 at 96.535
Sep 26 +0.005 at 96.715
Dec 26 +0.010 at 96.785
Red Pack (Mar 27-Dec 27) +0.005 to +0.010
Green Pack (Mar 28-Dec 28) steady
Blue Pack (Mar 29-Dec 29) steady
Gold Pack (Mar 30-Dec 30) -0.005 to steady

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.69% (+0.00), volume: $3.268T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.66% (+0.00), volume: $1.334T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.66% (+0.00), volume: $1.297T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.64% (+0.00), volume: $107B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.64% (+0.00), volume: $188B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage inches up to $2.414B with 18 counterparties this afternoon vs. $1.785B Tuesday. Compares to December 12 low of $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021); this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Black Pearl Debt Launched, $1.5B NRW Priced

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/04 $2B #Black Pearl Compute 5NC2 6.125%
• 02/04 $1.5B *NRW Bank 5Y SOFR+34
• 02/04 $1B Howard Hughes 6NC2.5, 8NC3
• 02/04 $500M *CoE Development Bank 4Y SOFR+26
• 02/04 $500M Liverpool WNG 12Y +175a
• 02/04 $Benchmark Zions 3NC2 +120a
• 02/04 $Benchmark Republic of Korea investor calls

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform On Heightened Pol Risk Concerns

Gilts badly lagged across the European government bond space Wednesday on a perceived heightening in political risk.

• The prediction-market implied probability rose that UK Prime Minister Starmer would leave office prematurely amid a scandal involving his appointee as US ambassador (Mandelson). In turn this heightened concerns over the UK fiscal trajectory, seeing the Gilt curve bear steepen.
• Earlier in the session, Eurozone flash January headline HICP was in line with consensus, with some variation in subcomponents; Italian flash inflation printed stronger than expected. Overall data had little impact on EGBs.
• The German curve bull flattened on the day, boosted by a pullback in European equities, with periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widening as part of a risk-off move.
• Industrial data is of some interest Thursday including German Factory Orders, but the clear focus will be central bank decisions.
• Those are of course the BOE (MNI preview) and ECB (MNI preview).

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.9bps at 2.094%, 5-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.431%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.859%, and 30-Yr is down 2.6bps at 3.524%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.7bps at 3.715%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 3.966%, 10-Yr is up 2.9bps at 4.546%, and 30-Yr is up 4.4bps at 5.332%.
• Italian BTP spread up 0.4bps at 61.1bps / French OAT up 1.2bps at 58.8bps

MNI FOREX: US Dollar Maintains Constructive Tone, NZD and SEK Underperform

• The US dollar has traded with a supportive tone on Wednesday, assisted by bouts of risk off sentiment prompting equity weakness and oil strength. Late headlines from Axios suggesting that plans for Iran nuclear talks are collapsing has exacerbated this dynamic.
• The USD index has matched the most recent recovery highs at 97.73 and has weighed on the precious metals space, with spot gold briefly extending an impressive intraday pullback to print around $4,850 after reaching a $5,091 high overnight.
• AUD, NZD and JPY are among the worst performing majors, while the Swedish krona is at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard following some dovish innovations within the latest Riksbank minutes.
• NZDUSD has extended Wednesday’s decline to around 0.9%, slipping back below 0.6000 in the process. This follows a mixed set of Q4 employment data, failing to sustain the Kiwi’s recent bullish momentum. Support levels to note for the pair intersect at 0.5930 (20-day EMA) before more meaningful support at the prior break level around 0.5850.
• USDJPY has consolidated above 156.50 today, extending the recovery from last week’s lows to 3% at its peak. The move back above the 50-day EMA, intersecting at 155.75, undermines the recent bear theme and highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. The next topside target is 157.72 as we approach this weekend’s election in Japan.
• The BLS have rescheduled the December JOLTS for Thursday, which will be the data highlight alongside both the BOE and ECB decisions.

THURSDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
05/02/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	Manufacturing Orders
05/02/2026	0745/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
05/02/2026	0830/0930	**	EU	S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
05/02/2026	0900/1000	*	IT	Retail Sales
05/02/2026	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
05/02/2026	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Retail Sales
05/02/2026	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
05/02/2026	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
05/02/2026	1230/1230		GB	BOE Press Conference
05/02/2026	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
05/02/2026	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
05/02/2026	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
05/02/2026	1345/1445		EU	ECB Press Conference
05/02/2026	1400/1400	***	GB	BOE Decision Making Panel
05/02/2026	1500/1000		US	Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
05/02/2026	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
05/02/2026	1550/1050		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
05/02/2026	1630/1130	*	US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
05/02/2026	1630/1130	**	US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
05/02/2026	1725/1225		CA	BOC Governor Macklem speech in Toronto, release time TBC.
05/02/2026	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
06/02/2026	2330/0830	**	JP	Household spending