THAILAND: MNI Publishes Election Preview
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Thailand holds a snap general election on Sunday, 8 February, to elect all 500 members of the House of Representatives. This follows a chaotic period in Thai politics after the 2023 election. Since that election, two prime ministers from the populist Pheu Thai party have been forced from office by the courts, a hot war with Cambodia broke out over long-running border disputes, and the conservative Bhumjaithai Party formed a minority government, which for the first time saw the progressive People’s Party provide support to an incumbent administration.
Interim PM Anutin Charnvirakul asked the King to issue a royal decree on 12 December 2025, dissolving parliament and calling a snap election amid renewed fighting with Cambodian forces (despite the peace deal agreed months earlier), and criticism for the government’s response to widespread flooding in the south of the country that left hundreds dead. The People’s Party was set to call a no-confidence vote in Anutin, with the PM calling the election early to avoid such an outcome.
In this election preview, we outline the electoral system for the House of Representatives and the main parties contesting the vote, provide analysis of potential post-election scenarios, analyse the potential impact of the election on Thai assets, the country’s macro outlook, and the credit environment, put together a chart pack of relevant opinion polling and prediction market implied probabilities, and summarise sell-side analyst views.
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US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate Downgraded After Soft ISM Manufacturing
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 has been marked down to 2.7% Q/Q SAAR (2.68% unrounded) from 3.0% in its prior update on Dec 23 (2.97% unrounded) and 4.3% in Q3.
- The major data development between then and now was today's relatively soft ISM Manufacturing index, which saw the growth forecast for equipment investment downgraded to -3.2% Q/Q SAAR from -2.4% (and +5.4% in Q3), while personal consumption expenditures were downgraded to 2.4% from 2.7% (3.5% in Q3).
- Combined, those two downgrades shaved off 0.26pp from the overall GDP estimate.
- We get the next GDPNow update on Thursday, after the publication of ISM Services, international trade, and wholesale trade among other data points.
FOREX: Dollar Holds ISM Losses, But Major Pairs Still Rangebound
Headed through the London close, the USD Index trades close to the lowest levels of the day, leaving markets holding close to the entirety of the ISM-triggered move. This keeps EURUSD above 1.17 and GBPUSD above 1.35 through the close. Despite the impressive intraday reversal, both pairs are still well inside the recent range, however, leaving notable resistance levels untroubled for now.
- For some, today marks the first full trading session of the year, and it is worth noting the somewhat erratic price action in GBPUSD headed through the WMR fix both today, Friday and (to a lesser extent) on December 31st, all of which saw a sizeable bid in GBP (excepting Dec31, where GBP was sold) through the fix, before a partial reversal.
- AUDUSD's clearance of 0.67 ahead of the close today keeps the short-term outlook bullish to keep focus on the bull trigger into 0.6728, the Dec 29 and range high. CPI data due Wednesday should prove influential here, marking the new monthly series and a direct input into the February 3rd RBA decision.
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.540%(ALLOT 77.13%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.540%(ALLOT 77.13%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 39.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.86% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.63% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.84
