ECB: Analyst 2026-27 Rate Path Views Ahead Of Tomorrow's ECB Decision
Feb-04 19:03
- The ECB is unanimously expected to leave rates on hold at tomorrow's ECB decision.
- There is a minor easing bias priced in for 2026 as a whole but rate cut calls remain few and far between across analysts, with only BofA and Morgan Stanley formally looking for cuts amongst the 27 views reviewed below.
- There are widespread expectations of rates on hold through 2026, with the exception being SocGen and TD Securities looking for a 25bp hike at the end of the year.
- Of those specifying rate hike views, most expect them to start in the middle to second half of 2027.
- See the full MNI ECB Preview here (Hidden PDF).
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EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
Jan-05 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
- RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 0.8747/97 50-day EMA / High Dec 17 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 0.8658 @ 17:06 GMT Jan 5
- SUP 1: 0.8658 Low Jan 5
- SUP 2: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 4: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
The bear cycle that started Nov 14 in EURGBP remains intact. 0.8706, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg, has been cleared. The break of it strengthens the current bear theme and opens 0.8656, the Oct 8 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.8744, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8797, the Dec 17 high.
BONDS: BTPs And Gilts In Long Territory, OATs Stay Short (2/2)
Jan-05 18:54
In non-German contracts in Europe Pi:
- OAT: OAT structural positioning remains short (having flipped in December from long previously). Last week's trade was indicative of short-setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning has jumped to very long after months in relatively flat territory. The latest week saw some longs set.
- BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in long territory. Trade indicative of long reduction was seen last week.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $9B Mexico 3Pt Leads US$ Issuance
Jan-05 18:45
Mexico leads with $9B 3pt debt on a crowded US$ issuance docket:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/05 $9B #United Mexican States $3B 8Y +175, $4B 12Y +200, $2B 30Y +200
- 01/05 $3.5B #Credit Agricole $1.75B 6NC5 +95, $1.75B 11NC10 +110
- 01/05 $3B #UBS $1.5B PerpNC5 6.625% yld, $1.52B PerpNC10 7% yld
- 01/05 $2.75B #Williams Cos $500M 7Y +72, $1.25B 10Y +100, $1B 30Y +112.5
- 01/05 $2.75B #Constellation Energy $900M 2Y +48, $300M 2Y SOFR+60, $750M 5Y +73, $800M 40Y +112.5
- 01/05 $2.75B #Hyundai $900M 3Y +73, $350M 3Y SOFR+89, $700M 5Y +85, $300M 5Y SOFR+107, $500M 7Y +92
- 01/05 $2.5B #Ford Motor Cr $1.5B 3Y +145, $1B 3Y SOFR+183, 7Y leg dropped
- 01/05 $1.75B #Caterpillar $500M 2Y +27, $750M 2Y SOFR+40, $500M 5Y +45
- 01/05 $1.5B #General Motors Financial $900M 5Y +90, $600M 10Y +130
- 01/05 $1B *Export/Import Bank of India $500M 10Y +85, $500M 30Y +95
- 01/05 $1B #Entergy Arkansas $500M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +93
- 01/05 $1B #PSEG $500M 5Y +52, $500M 30Y +80
- 01/05 $750M #Ares Capital +5Y +180
- 01/05 $500M #Pricoa Global Funding 7Y +77
- 01/05 $Benchmark MUFG 6NC5 +80, 6NC5 SOFR+102, 11NC10 +90
- 01/05 $Benchmark SFMG 3Y +60, 3Y SOFR+76, 6NC5 +80, 6NC5 SOFR+102, 11NC10 +90, 21NC20 +80
- 01/05 $Benchmark Societe Generale 4.25NC3.25 +95, 4.25NC3.25 SOFR, 11.25NC10.25 +128
- 01/05 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +95a, 5Y +100a, 10Y +110a, 30Y +140a
- 01/05 $Benchmark Blackstone Private Cr Fund 5Y +190
- 01/05 $Benchmark New York Life 5Y +58
- 01/05 $Benchmark ADB 10Y SOFR+48a
- 01/05 $Benchmark EIB 5Y SOFR+35a
- 01/05 $Benchmark MetLife 5Y +65
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