US DATA: ADP Employment Sees Modest Miss and Large Downard Revisions On QCEW
Feb-04 15:59
ADP employment was a little softer than weekly tracking had implied with a larger miss against Bloomberg consensus. It was part of a release that was clouded by some large annual revisions, negative across 2025 as a whole but with a small net upward revision to Q4.
- ADP private employment was softer than Bloomberg consensus in January, rising 22k vs 45k expected, with the latest weekly series’ 31k monthly equivalent having hinted at risk of a downward surprise as we had flagged.
- However, the fact it was broadly close to consensus seems down to luck as much as anything following large annual revisions.
- Cumulative private sector jobs growth now stands at 398k across 2025 vs the 614k seen after last month’s update.
- These downward revisions were concentrated in the first half of 2025 whilst more recently there were net upward revisions in Q4 owing to a large change to Nov (+74k vs -29k). It leaves the latest three-month rate at 44k, unchanged from 44k in December vs what was originally 20k.
- The monthly profile now shows what was a much more aggressive slowdown in job creation back in March, with a particularly large downward revision to -53k vs +147k shown in last month’s vintage (linked to QCEW revisions – more on this below). March also coincided with an increased touting of tariff threats before the Liberation Day announcements in April and indeed the three-month average has for now bottomed at -33k in May before recovering in 2H25.
- On today’s revisions: “The January 2026 report reflects a scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report. The data series has been reweighted to match the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data through March 2025.”
- “Beginning this month, in addition to the annual benchmark revision, the ADP National Employment Report also will reflect data from the most recent QCEW release.”
- Recall that these QCEW data have been pointing to significant downawrd revisions to the level of nonfarm payrolls to March 2025. Fed Chair Powell has previously estimated a hit worth circa 60k/month.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Move Away From Longs Continues (Gilts Excepted)
Jan-05 15:57
We've just published our latest Europe Pi positioning analysis - Download Full Document Here
- The recent move away from long-leaning structural positioning broadly continued through the recent holiday-interrupted period.
- 5 of 7 contracts are in outright "short" territory (it was 4 of 7 in our last biweekly update), with trade in the most recent week largely indicative of further short-setting and long reduction.
- The two exceptions in terms of positioning are Gilt and BTP which are long-leaning.
UK: DMO Launch TBill Consultation, Meeting Budget '25 Commitment
Jan-05 15:44
UK government launch a consultation on the UK Treasury bill market: https://www.dmo.gov.uk/media/nrgnywtz/pr050126.pdf
- This is as announced at the Budget last year: "Budget 2025 on 26 November 2025, the government announced that it would launch a consultation on expanding and deepening the UK Treasury bill (“T-bill”) market."
- They're looking to explore options to promote participation and help develop a more active and liquid secondary market.
UN: Sec-Gen Raises Concern About Precedent Set By US' Venezuela Operation
Jan-05 15:31
In a statement to a meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says that the UN is "concerned about the possible intensification of instability in Venezuela" following the US operation that saw President Nicolas Maduro captured and transported to the US to face narco-trafficking charges. Guterres says there are also concerns regarding the precedent the operation may set for how relations among states are conducted, and whether the op respected the rules of international law.
- Guterres calls on all Venezuelan actors to "engage in an inclusive, democratic dialogue", and says the UN is ready to support all efforts aimed at assisting Venezuelans in finding a peaceful way forward.
- It is unclear if a resolution will be put to a vote to condemn the US's actions in Venezuela. Even if a resolution is passed, it is unlikely to have any impact on the future actions of the Trump administration vis-a-vis the immediate control of Venezuela, and its interactions with the newly inaugurated interim president, Delcy Rodriguez.
- The precedent set by the US's actions are being closely followed in other NATO states following President Trump's comments after the Maduro operation regarding future control of Greenland. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen said a short time ago that she believes Trump is "serious about wanting to take over Greenland", but that both Denmark and Greenland have said no. Adds that any US attempt to seize Greenland will see "everything stop" with regards to NATO cooperation.
Trending Top
Jun-25 06:23
