US DATA: ADP Revisions See Healthcare As A Major Driver, Echoing Payrolls
The wide-ranging revisions have seen the education & healthcare sector provide a much larger contribution, more closely reflecting trends in BLS private sector job creation.
- Education & healthcare jobs increased a cumulative 642k over 2025 vs the 28k previously estimated.
- This net revision of +614k across 2025 was in stark contrast to most industries considering the cumulative revision of -216k. The next largest positive revision was other services at +39k whilst the largest downward revision was trade, transportation & utilities at -325k.
- The BLS private payrolls data have for some time shown a large contribution from health & social assistance, rising 49k on average in the three months to December vs -19k for all other private industries.
- The broader ADP category of education & healthcare has now increased an average of 58k per month in the three months to January vs -13k for other industries.
- This reliance on healthcare has received plenty of attention, including Governor Bowman on Jan 30 (link): "Despite some tentative signs of the unemployment rate leveling off, it seems too early to say that the labor market has stabilized,... Job gains have been concentrated in just a few nonbusiness service industries that are less cyclically sensitive, with health care accounting for all private job gains last quarter."
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BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Move Away From Longs Continues (Gilts Excepted)
We've just published our latest Europe Pi positioning analysis - Download Full Document Here
- The recent move away from long-leaning structural positioning broadly continued through the recent holiday-interrupted period.
- 5 of 7 contracts are in outright "short" territory (it was 4 of 7 in our last biweekly update), with trade in the most recent week largely indicative of further short-setting and long reduction.
- The two exceptions in terms of positioning are Gilt and BTP which are long-leaning.
UK: DMO Launch TBill Consultation, Meeting Budget '25 Commitment
UK government launch a consultation on the UK Treasury bill market: https://www.dmo.gov.uk/media/nrgnywtz/pr050126.pdf
- This is as announced at the Budget last year: "Budget 2025 on 26 November 2025, the government announced that it would launch a consultation on expanding and deepening the UK Treasury bill (“T-bill”) market."
- They're looking to explore options to promote participation and help develop a more active and liquid secondary market.
UN: Sec-Gen Raises Concern About Precedent Set By US' Venezuela Operation
In a statement to a meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says that the UN is "concerned about the possible intensification of instability in Venezuela" following the US operation that saw President Nicolas Maduro captured and transported to the US to face narco-trafficking charges. Guterres says there are also concerns regarding the precedent the operation may set for how relations among states are conducted, and whether the op respected the rules of international law.
- Guterres calls on all Venezuelan actors to "engage in an inclusive, democratic dialogue", and says the UN is ready to support all efforts aimed at assisting Venezuelans in finding a peaceful way forward.
- It is unclear if a resolution will be put to a vote to condemn the US's actions in Venezuela. Even if a resolution is passed, it is unlikely to have any impact on the future actions of the Trump administration vis-a-vis the immediate control of Venezuela, and its interactions with the newly inaugurated interim president, Delcy Rodriguez.
- The precedent set by the US's actions are being closely followed in other NATO states following President Trump's comments after the Maduro operation regarding future control of Greenland. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen said a short time ago that she believes Trump is "serious about wanting to take over Greenland", but that both Denmark and Greenland have said no. Adds that any US attempt to seize Greenland will see "everything stop" with regards to NATO cooperation.
