SECURITY: Russia's Position Unchanged Ahead Of 2nd Round Of UAE Talks - Kremlin
Feb-04 10:54
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said that Russia's position remains "unchanged", ahead of a second round of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi today, per Reuters. Peskov added Russian troops would keep fighting until Kyiv made "decisions" that could bring the war to an end.
- Optimism for a breakthrough in the UAE is low, with little to indicate Moscow will moderate maximalist demands to end the war, including Russian sovereignty over parts of Eastern Ukraine controlled by Kyiv, limits on Ukraine’s military, and rejection of European troops in the country as part of a post-war security guarantee.
- However, Politico reports some insiders believe current negotiations may be more promising than widely credited, noting Russians “are taking these talks more seriously.” The Guardian reports Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out ceding territory but “is willing to consider alternative arrangements, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops [and] establishment of a demilitarised zone [in the east].”
- Peskov added the Kremlin has not seen any new developments on India and Russian oil, following US President Donald Trump's announcement that India agreed to halt Russian oil purchases as part of a new trade deal. The White House is yet to issue an official statement on the US-India deal, with the details likely to be ironed out in the coming days as Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar continues diplomatic engagements in Washington.
- Peskov said that there "no confirmation of plans for high-level contacts" with France, in response to reports French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to resume dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yesterday, Macron told reporters discussions are taking place for talks with Putin, but conceded, “I don't think Russia is currently willing to conclude a peace agreement (with Ukraine) in the coming days or weeks."
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DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6-Month DTCs
Jan-05 10:49
| Type | 3-month DTC | 6-month DTC |
| Maturity | Mar 30, 2026 | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.5bln | E1.26bln |
| Target | E1.0-2.0bln | E1.0-2.0bln |
| Previous | E2bln | E1.09bln |
| Avg yield | 1.992% | 2.000% |
| Previous | 1.934% | 1.990% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.88x | 2.19x |
| Previous | 2.14x | 1.31x |
| Previous date | Oct 20, 2025 | Dec 01, 2025 |
FOREX: USD Tilts Higher Amid Venezuela Uncertainty, Oil Tied FX Pressured
Jan-05 10:48
- The fallout from Venezuela remains difficult to parse for G10 FX, which are instead following cross-market cues via higher precious metals and rallying equities (IT and industrials outperform thanks to tech strength in Asia as well as ASML's 3.5% rally on a Bernstein upgrade).
- The USD's continued recovery off the late December lows nicely coincides with the formation of a golden cross (50-dma > 200-dma), pointing to potential corrective activity in the USD Index's 1% rally since Christmas.
- We noted the distinct pressure on front-end implied vols across G10 FX in the lead-up to Christmas (even when seasonals were accounted for), and little has changed. EUR 3m vols remain trending lower, with JPY the sole standout in vol space.
- Oil-sensitive FX is underperforming as crude softens despite the significant uncertainty over Venezuela’s oil production capability after the capture of Maduro.
- As such, USDCAD upward pressure comes via both legs of the trade, making light work of its 20-day EMA, narrowing the gap to the 1.3806 December 19 high. From a technical perspective, a bear theme remains intact for now, with key short term support at 1.3643 but short-term the corrective bounce may extend.
- USDNOK expectedly also sees gains this morning but remains within its December range, with resistance at 10.2429, the December 18 high.
- Key focus is on any cues if the US will be able to secure power over Venezuela and if further intervention may be needed to achieve that given some question marks on now acting president Delcy Rodriguez.
- Elsewhere, ISM Manufacturing highlights the data calendar for today while markets await Friday's December employment report. This will be the last NFP release before the FOMC's end-January meeting, at which participants would probably require substantially weaker-than-expected figures to spur even consideration of a another 25bp cut.
EGB SYNDICATION: Slovenia 10-year: Revised Guidance
Jan-05 10:43
- EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (March 12, 2036) MS+40 Area (Guidance was MS+45)
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA, long first
- Books above EU6.4b (including JLM interest): Leads
- Size: MNI expects E1.5bln
- Settlement: Jan. 12, 2026 (t+5)
- ISIN: SI0002105227
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), DZ Bank, HSBC, JPM, OTPBSI, RBI
- Timing: May price today.
Details as per Bloomberg, with MNI colour.
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