SECURITY: Russia's Position Unchanged Ahead Of 2nd Round Of UAE Talks - Kremlin

• The fallout from Venezuela remains difficult to parse for G10 FX, which are instead following cross-market cues via higher precious metals and rallying equities (IT and industrials outperform thanks to tech strength in Asia as well as ASML's 3.5% rally on a Bernstein upgrade).
• The USD's continued recovery off the late December lows nicely coincides with the formation of a golden cross (50-dma > 200-dma), pointing to potential corrective activity in the USD Index's 1% rally since Christmas.
• We noted the distinct pressure on front-end implied vols across G10 FX in the lead-up to Christmas (even when seasonals were accounted for), and little has changed. EUR 3m vols remain trending lower, with JPY the sole standout in vol space.
• Oil-sensitive FX is underperforming as crude softens despite the significant uncertainty over Venezuela’s oil production capability after the capture of Maduro.
• As such, USDCAD upward pressure comes via both legs of the trade, making light work of its 20-day EMA, narrowing the gap to the 1.3806 December 19 high. From a technical perspective, a bear theme remains intact for now, with key short term support at 1.3643 but short-term the corrective bounce may extend.
• USDNOK expectedly also sees gains this morning but remains within its December range, with resistance at 10.2429, the December 18 high.
• Key focus is on any cues if the US will be able to secure power over Venezuela and if further intervention may be needed to achieve that given some question marks on now acting president Delcy Rodriguez.
• Elsewhere, ISM Manufacturing highlights the data calendar for today while markets await Friday's December employment report. This will be the last NFP release before the FOMC's end-January meeting, at which participants would probably require substantially weaker-than-expected figures to spur even consideration of a another 25bp cut.

• EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (March 12, 2036) MS+40 Area (Guidance was MS+45)
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA, long first
• Books above EU6.4b (including JLM interest): Leads
• Size: MNI expects E1.5bln
• Settlement: Jan. 12, 2026 (t+5)
• ISIN: SI0002105227
• Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), DZ Bank, HSBC, JPM, OTPBSI, RBI
• Timing: May price today.

Details as per Bloomberg, with MNI colour.