EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

US
MNI FED: Williams Defends Fed's Unconventional Policy Tools
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on Friday said central banks must have the appropriate tools to carry out their mandates and that includes so-called unconventional policies, beyond just the setting of the short-term interest rate. "It is not enough to be accountable and independent: central banks must have the appropriate tools to carry out their mandates," Williams said in prepared remarks for a speech at the Dutch National Bank in Amsterdam.
MNI US: Speaker Johnson Rules Out Putting Bipartisan Funding Bill On House Floor
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has told Nathaniel Reed at Scripps News that he is "right now" ruling out putting any future bipartisan Senate compromise to reopen the government on the House floor. Johnson's comments throw cold water on the prospect that the House could enter into compromise negotiations with the Senate when it returns to session on Monday.
NEWS
MNI US-CHINA: China Considering US Investment Package To Ease Curbs - Bloomberg
Bloomberg reporting that, “China is pushing the Trump administration to roll back national-security restrictions on Chinese deals in the US, dangling the prospect of a massive investment package as part of a proposal that would upend a decade of policy.” According to Bloomberg sources, “The demands from President Xi Jinping’s negotiators also include lowering tariffs on imported inputs from the world’s No. 2 economy used by any Chinese factories built in the US as a result.” Bloomberg notes, “The Chinese floated a figure of $1 trillion earlier this year... but the size of the potential investment being discussed now is unclear.”
MNI US DATA: Labor Secretary Wants NFP Report Publication "As Soon As" Gov't Reopens
Following the non-release of September's nonfarm payrolls data, Labor Sec Chavez-Deremer in a Fox Business appearance didn't directly answer the host's initial question about whether the report would be released after the gov't reopens ("certainly what we want to see at BLS is to have those numbers out"). Then the host followed up, directly asking: "just to be clear, when would you expect to release the September jobs numbers"
MNI JAPAN: Post-LDP Election, Focus Will Turn To Parliamentary Support
By the evening of Saturday, 4 October, the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will have a new president. The winner of the election will also become prime minister-designate. This comes ahead of a vote in the National Diet to confirm the new LDP president as outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba's successor, expected on 15 October. However, in the intervening 11 days, the new LDP leader will have to gain the backing of at least one opposition party in order to secure a majority in both chambers of parliament.
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Tsys Extend Late Session Lows, Gov Remains Closed, Data Suspended
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: ISM Services Activity Resumes Broader Downtrend
September's ISM Services report showed slower activity vs August, with unexpectedly stubborn price pressures. As the report notes, the September numbers look similar to May-July, suggesting that the August pickup was fleeting. The overall trend in the survey remains toward softer activity, though the 0.4% annualized real GDP that this implies for the month (per the ISM) looks like an underestimate of underlying growth.

MNI US DATA: Services PMI Solidity Continues To Contrast With ISM Weakness
The final S&P Global US Services PMI was revised up 0.3 points from the flash estimate, at 54.2. That's a slightly smaller slowdown than previously estimated vs August's 54.4, and showed much stronger services sector activity than the ISM Services indicator (which fell to 50.0 vs 51.7 expected, 52.0 prior).

MNI US DATA: MNI Estimates Uptick In Initial Claims To 223-225k Last Week
Based on state-by-state data released by the Department of Labor, MNI estimates a seasonally-adjusted 223-225k initial jobless claims in the week of September 27. This would represent a 5-7k uptick from the prior week's 218k (unrevised). That would still bring the 4-week moving average down, to 235k (if it's 225k claims for the week) vs 237k prior, for a 4-week low.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 298.51 points (0.64%) at 46819.32
S&P E-Mini Future up 5 points (0.07%) at 6771.75
Nasdaq down 50.4 points (-0.2%) at 22793.97
US 10-Yr yield is up 3.7 bps at 4.1192%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are down 8.5/32 at 112-21
EURUSD up 0.0026 (0.22%) at 1.174
USDJPY up 0.23 (0.16%) at 147.5
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.37 (0.61%) at $60.85
Gold is up $30.9 (0.8%) at $3887.10
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 5.9 points (0.1%) at 5651.71
FTSE 100 up 63.52 points (0.67%) at 9491.25
German DAX down 43.76 points (-0.18%) at 24378.8
French CAC 40 up 24.91 points (0.31%) at 8081.54
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +3.263, 16.053 (L: 12.065 / H: 16.377)
2Y10Y +0.354, 54.536 (L: 53.149 / H: 54.768)
2Y30Y -0.866, 113.859 (L: 112.805 / H: 115.481)
5Y30Y -1.731, 99.92 (L: 99.823 / H: 102.32)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures down 1.75/32 at 104-7.875 (L: 104-07.625 / H: 104-10.125)
Dec 5-Yr futures down 5.75/32 at 109-8.5 (L: 109-08.5 / H: 109-15.25)
Dec 10-Yr futures down 9/32 at 112-20.5 (L: 112-20.5 / H: 112-31.5)
Dec 30-Yr futures down 12/32 at 116-29 (L: 116-27 / H: 117-16)
Dec Ultra futures down 10/32 at 120-14 (L: 120-12 / H: 121-06)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
Treasuries bounced Wednesday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-12, has been pierced but remains intact. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 -0.015 at 96.335
Mar 26 -0.025 at 96.540
Jun 26 -0.035 at 96.750
Sep 26 -0.030 at 96.890
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.035 to -0.025
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) -0.04 to -0.03
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.035 to -0.03
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.03 to -0.025
REFERENCE RATES (PRIOR SESSION)
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $25.392B with 14 counterparties this afternoon, after falling to the lowest level since early April 2021 yesterday with: $8.436B. Compares to the year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Core Curves Bull Flatten For The Week
Gilts outperformed Bunds Friday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
MNI FOREX: Shutdown Persists, But Market Taking in Stride
MONDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 06/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | HCOB France Construction PMI | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ECB de Guindos Speech at Diario Expansion | ||
| 06/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ECB Lane Keynote at ECB MonPol Conference | ||
| 06/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EZ Retail Sales | |
| 06/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 06/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 06/10/2025 | 1700/1900 | ECB Lagarde at ECON Hearing, European Parliament | ||
| 06/10/2025 | 1730/1830 | BOE Bailey Keynote at Scotland Global Investment Summit | ||
| 07/10/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | Household spending |