FOREX: Shutdown Persists, But Market Taking in Stride

• RES 4: 113-06   2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 113-00   Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing  
• RES 1: 112-19/20+ High Sep 3 / Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-18 @ 16:58 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 111-31+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-19   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The trend outlook in Treasury futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Recent gains delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals scope for an extension towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing a bull theme. First support to watch is 111-31+, the 20-day EMA. 

The Elysee confirmed that French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and ‘several other heads of state’ will speak with President Donald Trump at 08:00 ET 13:00 BST tomorrow, after a meeting of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ in Paris.

• Trump said alongside Polish President Karol Nawrocki in the Oval Office that roughly 10,000 US soldiers will remain deployed in Poland, adding that number could be increased "if they want".
• Zelenskyy confirmed a short time ago that he discussed a US backstop to security guarantees w/EU counterparts in Copenhagen today: “We have signals from the US of a possible backstop [and] the role of EU membership in this holistic system of security guarantees...”
• Trump reiterated to reporters yesterday that there will be “consequences” for Putin slow-walking a meeting with Zelenskyy. He added: “I had actually a very good meeting with [Putin] a couple of weeks ago. We'll see if anything comes out of it. If it doesn't, we'll take a different stance.”
• It is unlikely Putin's recent concessions on a meeting will be seen by the White House as sufficient progress. See SECURITY: Putin Offers To Meet Zelenskyy And Trump In Moscow
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox on Monday that “all options are on the table” for further sanctions on Russia, adding “we’ll be examining those very closely this week.”
• Bessent and White House officials said EU countries need to align with the US on halting Russian oil purchases, but have equivocated on pursuing a similar secondary oil tariff on China to the one imposed on India.
• US Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, told Bloomberg yesterday that the US has refrained from imposing secondary sanctions on China because of ongoing trade negotiations.

Long 10-year:

• Reoffer: 99.698 to yield 3.662%
• Spread set at MS + 95bp (Guidance was MS+105bp area and revised to MS + 95-100bp (WPIR))
• Size: E1.0bln (in line with MNI estimate)
• Books closed in excess of E1.9bln (ex JLM interest)
• Maturity: 10 March 2036
• Coupon: 3.625%, Short first
• HR 100% vs 2.60% Aug-35 Bund. Spot ref 98.76 / + 91.9bp
• ISIN: XS3175946071

20-year:

• Spread set earlier at MS +140bp (guidance was MS+145bp area)
• Size: E750mln (MNI pencilled in E1bln)
• Books closed in excess of E1.6bln (ex JLM interest)
• Maturity: 10 September 2045
• Coupon: 4.25%
• HR 99% vs 2.50% July-44 Bund. Spot ref 90.23 / + 116.5bp
• ISIN: XS3175947046

For both:

• Bookrunners: Erste Group (B&D), HSBC and Societe Generale
• Settlement Date: 10 September 2025 (T+5)
• Timing: TOE: 16:24 BST /17:24 CET. FTT immediately.

From market source / MNI colour