EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

US
MNI: Fed Biased To Ease With Focus On Jobs - Ex-Officials
The Federal Reserve is still inclined to keep cutting interest rates as policymakers worry predominantly about employment weakness, even if the bar for additional easing is higher with borrowing costs closer to neutral, former central bank officials and staffers told MNI. “I read the direction of travel as dovish. While the SEP highlighted the hawkish disagreement around the table, the chair's comments clearly placed more weight on the cooling labor market dynamics than inflation,” said former Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Schmid-Dissented On Strong Growth, Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said Friday he dissented against a quarter-point rate cut this week for the same reasons that he did so in October: inflation remains too high and the labor market is still in balance. "I have not fundamentally changed my views on the economy relative to October. Inflation remains too high, the economy shows continued momentum, and the labor market — though cooling — remains largely in balance," he said in a statement. "I view the current stance of monetary policy as being only modestly, if at all, restrictive."
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Hammack Says Inflation Has Been Too High
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack on Friday said inflation has been too high, and noted the importance of achieving price stability over the longer term in a way that will support the labor market. "Inflation has been too high, and it's been holding there at those levels for some time, but we are seeing some softening on the labor side of the economy," she said in Q&A at an University of Cincinnati event. "I am truly committed to the 2% objective. I think it's critically important that we do bring inflation back down towards our target."
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Paulson More Concerned About Jobs Than Prices
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said Friday job market weakness warrants slightly more concern than inflation, which is likely headed lower next year as the effects of tariffs pass through prices and restrictive interest rates continue to pull down price growth. "On net, I am still a little more concerned about labor market weakness than about upside risks to inflation. That’s partly because I see a decent chance that inflation will come down as we go through next year," she said in remarks prepared for the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce. Tariff effects should dissipate by mid-2026, leaving inflation around 2.5%.
MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee-Need More Inflation Data To Cut
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he dissented against this week's FOMC decision to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point because he is seeking more confirmation that inflation is easing. "While I voted to lower rates at the September and October meetings, I believe we should have waited to get more data, especially about inflation, before lowering rates further," Goolsbee said in a statement.
MNI FED: Trump Tells WSJ: Leaning To Warsh Or Hassett As Fed Chair
President Trump has told the Wall Street Journal in an interview Friday that he was leaning toward either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as his pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh's probability of becoming Fed chair is spiking (40%, up 25pp on Kalshi in the last few minutes) on prediction markets with the interview suggesting the ex-Fed governor is neck-and-neck with previously presumptive favorite Hassett (57%).
NEWS
MNI EU-RUSSIA: EU Set To Pass Workaround To Freeze Russian Assets Long-Term
Reuters reporting comments from European Commission Exec VP Valdis Dombrovskis regarding the EU's efforts to use frozen Russian assets held in the Union to fund Ukraine's reconstruction. On the Russian Central Bank's claims that the use of the frozen funds would be illegal, Dombrovskis says that EU financial institutions holding the assets are 'fully protected from legal proceedings", and that "under the current EU sanctions regime, central securities depositories like Euroclear [in Belgium, where the bulk of the assets are held] can offset any seizure of their assets in Russia with immobilised Russian assets in the EU."
MNI CANADA: PM Homes In On Improbable Majority After Another Conservative Defection
The defection of Greater Toronto Area MP Michael Ma from the Conservatives to the Liberals late on 11 December leaves PM Mark Carney's gov't just one seat short of an overall majority in the House of Commons. This scenario would have been viewed as improbable following the hung parliament delivered in the April federal election. Ma represents the Markham-Unionville riding, which has flipped between the Liberals and Conservatives in recent electoral cycles.
MNI UKRAINE: Germany To Host Leaders Summit 15 Dec, No Assurance Of US Attendance
A statement from the German gov't has confirmed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be in Berlin on Monday, 15 December, for talks with Chancellor Friedrich Merz for 'economic talks' and to discuss the nascent peace framework. Afterwards, 'numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the top representatives of the EU and NATO, will join the discussions.'
MNI THAILAND: Caretaker PM: Trump Not Likely To Link Conflict To Tariffs
Comments from caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul following his call with US President Donald Trump. Says that the talk took place in a "good atmosphere", and that Trump was "concerned about the fighting with Cambodia" and "wants to return to the ceasefire". Anutin says that he "explained to Trump that Thailand must protect its sovereignty and people", also confirming that there is no ceasefire currently in place.
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Fed Returns From Blackout, Curves Bear Steepen, 2s10s Near 4Y Highs
OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Primary Dealers Look For 50k Nov Payroll Gains, U/E Tickup
We'll be publishing our full nonfarm payrolls preview on Monday ahead of the combined November/October release out Tuesday. Our early survey of primary dealer analyst expectations shows a median expectation of 50k gains in November after a drop of 40k in October (which follows +119k in September) - we will round this out with additional surveys on Monday.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 286.51 points (-0.59%) at 48417.35
S&P E-Mini Future down 86 points (-1.25%) at 6821.5
Nasdaq down 429.2 points (-1.8%) at 23164.53
US 10-Yr yield is up 3.5 bps at 4.1919%
US Mar 10-Yr futures are down 9/32 at 112-5.5
EURUSD up 0.0005 (0.04%) at 1.1742
USDJPY up 0.24 (0.15%) at 155.83
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.23 (-0.4%) at $57.38
Gold is up $17.21 (0.4%) at $4297.13
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 33.25 points (-0.58%) at 5720.71
FTSE 100 down 54.13 points (-0.56%) at 9649.03
German DAX down 108.12 points (-0.45%) at 24186.49
French CAC 40 down 17.14 points (-0.21%) at 8068.62
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
Curve update:
3M10Y +6.992, 56.918 (L: 47.66 / H: 57.691)
2Y10Y +4.723, 66.137 (L: 61.685 / H: 66.763)
2Y30Y +6.887, 132.729 (L: 126.281 / H: 133.559)
5Y30Y +4.26, 110.735 (L: 107.066 / H: 111.802)
Current futures levels:
Mar 2-Yr futures down 0.125/32 at 104-9.75 (L: 104-08.25 / H: 104-10.375)
Mar 5-Yr futures down 4.25/32 at 109-3 (L: 109-01.5 / H: 109-07)
Mar 10-Yr futures down 9/32 at 112-5.5 (L: 112-03.5 / H: 112-14)
Mar 30-Yr futures down 33/32 at 114-19 (L: 114-17 / H: 115-17)
Mar Ultra futures down 41/32 at 117-14 (L: 117-07 / H: 118-20)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Still Present
A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and the latest bounce appears corrective. The rally Thursday topped out at 112-23, meaning resistance at the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-23, remains intact. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 steady00 at 96.288
Mar 26 +0.005 at 96.460
Jun 26 +0.005 at 96.670
Sep 26 steady00 at 96.805
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) -0.035 to -0.01
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) -0.05 to -0.04
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.05 to -0.045
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.055 to -0.055
REFERENCE RATES
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage retreats to new low: $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021) with 6 counterparties this afternoon from $2.874B Thursday. Compares to prior low on November 18 low: $0.905B; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Curves Twist Steepen Ahead Of Busy Week
Yields picked up Friday, with long-end Gilts underperforming. The German and UK curves both twist steepened on the day.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
MNI FOREX: Moderate USD Boost Friday, DXY Broadly Consolidates Weekly Decline
MONDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 15/12/2025 | 1000/0500 | * | CREA Existing Home Sales | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Industrial Production | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1315/0815 | ** | CMHC Housing Starts | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1430/0930 | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | ||
| 15/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 15/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 16/12/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |