THAILAND: Caretaker PM: Trump Not Likely To Link Conflict To Tariffs
Comments from caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul following his call with US President Donald Trump. Says that the talk took place in a "good atmosphere", and that Trump was "concerned about the fighting with Cambodia" and "wants to return to the ceasefire". Anutin says that he "explained to Trump that Thailand must protect its sovereignty and people", also confirming that there is no ceasefire currently in place.
- The PM claims that he told the US president that Thailand "are not the aggressors" and that any moves towards a de-escalation would have to come from US pressure on Cambodia.
- Each side has accused the other of both breaking the ceasefire, brokered in October, and of being the main aggressor. Since fighting resumed on 8 Dec, 20 have been killed amid mass displacement of civilians.
- Thai Enquirer: "On the status of trade-tariff negotiations, Anutin urged the United States to reduce its tariffs and stressed that President Trump did not link the trade discussions to the ongoing border clashes."
- Speaking on 9 Dec, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said “The issue of Thai–Cambodian relations should not be tied to tariff negotiations or used as a tool to pressure Thailand back into the joint declaration, these are separate matters," indicating Bangkok may not be willing to bend to pressure from trade measures (which was seen as a factor in the earlier October agreement).
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Extends
- A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact.
- The contract has traded through resistance at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- This paves the way for an extension within the bull channel.
- On the downside, initial firm support is seen at levels around the 20-day EMA.
FED: Atlanta's Bostic To Retire In February, Putting Appointments Back In Focus
In a surprise announcement, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire from his position when his term concludes on February 28 2026. He's been president of the Fed bank since 2017. Note that he (and whoever the next Atlanta Fed president is) is a non-FOMC voter in both 2025 and 2026, with the Atlanta Fed next voting in 2027. Bostic's speaking at the Atlanta Economics Club at 1215ET so we may hear more about his decision.
- Unlike some recent regional Fed retirees, he is not being forced to depart mid-term due to reaching the mandatory retirement age (he's 59 now so would have had to retire in 2031 at age 65).
- Note that all 12 regional Fed presidents theoretically need to be reconfirmed by the Fed Board in February. "Under the Federal Reserve Act all Reserve Bank presidents serve five-year terms that expire at the end of February in years ending with the numerals 1 or 6."
- There had been some speculation that President Trump could attempt to influence the reappointment process by gaining a majority on the 7-member Fed Board that had the power to shape the regional Fed voting bloc on the FOMC. That would assume that Bowman and Waller are sympathetic to White House influence, in addition to Gov Miran's successor (his term is up in January, and his replacement could be the next Fed Chair if it isn't Bowman or Waller), with Gov Cook's legal battle including Supreme Court hearing in January looming large in this regard.
- Chair Powell was asked at the October FOMC about the Fed Board's timeline for this reappointment process - he said "it's a process that we go through under the law....We're in the middle of that process and we're going to complete it in a timely way, and I really, that's really all I can say."
- The Atlanta Fed is forming a search committee to find Bostic's replacement - the bank's "first vice president and chief operating officer, Cheryl Venable, will assume the duties of president on an interim basis until a new president is appointed, if a successor is not appointed by February 28, 2026, in accordance with Section 4 of the Federal Reserve Act."
OIL: Fallout From OPEC+ Report Still Driving Crude Weakness
Weakness in crude benchmarks has extended through the afternoon, with Brent futures now down over 2.5% on the session at ~$63.50. As noted in earlier posts, the trigger for the selloff has been the latest Monthly Oil Market report from OPEC+. The report pointed to a market surplus forming in Q3, contrary to prior expectations for a deficit.
- Our commodities team notes that OPEC has typically been the most bullish vis a vis supply-demand fundamentals and the Q3 surplus reinforces concerns for an oversupplied market.
- Initial support in COF6 is the November 6 low at $62.84, which shields the bear trigger at $59.97 (Oct 20 low).
