US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Still Present
Dec-12 16:37
- RES 4: 113-29+ High Oct 17 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 113-23 High Oct 23
- RES 2: 113-07/22+ High Dec 3 / High Nov 25
- RES 1: 112-23 High Dec 11 and the 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-05+ @ 16:35 GMT Dec 12
- SUP 1: 111-29 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and the latest bounce appears corrective. The rally Thursday topped out at 112-23, meaning resistance at the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-23, remains intact. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.750%(ALLOT 95.87%)
Nov-12 16:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.750%(ALLOT 95.87%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.18
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Broken Put Mid-curve Condor
Nov-12 16:31
0RF6 98.125/98.0625/98.00/97.875 broken put condor. Paper sold for 0.5 in 10.5k
FOREX: Price Action Consistent with GBP Demand, USD Sales into 4pm London
Nov-12 16:18
USD reversal holds in recent trade, helping form a notable intraday reversal in the likes of EURUSD, USDCNH and - in particular - GBPUSD.
- Price action is consistent with some GBP buying and USD sales into the 4pm WMR fix, and while the rally in GBPUSD does put the pair close to 50 pips off intraday lows, the rally is still well short of AM highs into 1.3155 and yesterday's 1.3184.
- Futures volumes are consistent with a pick-up in interest for GBP as the spot rate recovered off lows - and the tail-off of activity as the rate stalls into 1.3140 further supports the view that the move was flow-related.
- We noted earlier today that dips in EURGBP remain well supported around the prior breakout level at 0.8769, highlighting the dominant uptrend. The next topside target remains at 0.8875, the April 2023 high.
