MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/weekly_macro_round_up_Oct_2_2026_895ea38064.pdf Executive Summary: JAPAN * The Q3 Tankan survey results for large firms were mostly below market forecasts but above Q2 outcomes. The large manufacturing index printing at +24 (+25 was forecast and 22 was the Q2 outcome). The outlook for this segment was +21 (against a 22 forecast and 17 prior). * The Tokyo CPI rebounded strongly for Sep, aided by government policy changes and base effects. Services inflation is back above 2%y/y though, bringing the BoJ outlook back again into focus. AUSTRALIA * After discussing both a hold and a 25bp tightening, in a unanimous vote, the Board increased rates 25bp to 4.6%, highest in 15 years, as was widely expected. Views are mixed as to whether there will be another hike before year end with the unanimous vote interpreted as a willingness to tighten again to fight inflation persistence. The price outlook will be key for future RBA decisions. * The August CPI print was close to expectations and so unlikely a surprise to the RBA that saw upside risks to inflation "materialising". Price pressures seen in Q2 continued in Q3 but if policy is tight enough, its 3.3% Q4 trimmed mean forecast could still be achieved. * Higher fuel prices increased the value of August consumption and excluding fuel would've fallen 0.3% m/m. NEW ZEALAND * ANZ NZ September business confidence and activity outlook printed at their lowest for Q3 with late month responses significantly weaker due to higher oil prices. The RBNZ will be relieved that while costs rose again pricing intentions eased and inflation expectations were stable. * The labour market is gradually recovering but remains soft. August filled jobs rose 0.2% m/m after 0.2% in July leaving the annual rate up 0.9% y/y. SHORT TERM RATES * Interest-rate expectations through December 2026 have moved in mixed directions across the $-bloc over the past three weeks. US pricing is 7bp firmer, while Canada is 13bp softer and Australia and New Zealand are each 5bp softer. CHINA * China Sep PMIs all ticked up on Aug outcomes. For the official PMIs, manufacturing rose to 50.1, in line with forecasts (49.8 was the prior). Non-manufacturing rose to 50.2 (49.2 was forecast and 49.0 the Aug print). At face value the indices suggest better economic momentum for China into end Q3. * Headlines crossed that the US and China have agreed to reciprocal tariff cuts on $30bn of imported goods. SOUTH KOREA * South Korea Sep trade figures were better than forecast. Exports rose 83.5%y/y (versus 62.5 forecast and 68.7% in August). The trade surplus surged to $49.9bn, versus $38.9bn forecast and $34.8bn prior. The growth backdrop looks strong supported by strong external demand/chip exports. * Both the South Korea and Taiwan PMIs rose for Sep. The two trade bellwethers continue to point to an above average global trade volumes backdrop. ASIA * The September Global S&P ASEAN manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 52.1 from 52.3 consistent with activity growing at a similar pace to August. There was a slowdown across much of the region except Indonesia and Thailand.

MNI EGB Supply Daily - 1 October, 2026

Spain and France today will hold conventional auctions while Belgium will likely hold an ORI auction tomorrow.

MNI RBA Review-Sep 2026: Will Hike If Need To Slow Inflation

The RBA hiked rates 25bp to 4.6% due to inflation risks materialising.

MNI EGB Supply Daily - 30 September, 2026

Germany will look to hold a 10-year Bund auction while we look for Q4 funding plans from Finland and Portugal today.