MNI BOE Preview: July 2026: Setting up for the autumn

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• There will be a number of key factors to watch at this week’s MPC meeting.
• First will be the vote split – although we note that a 7-2 or 6-3 vote with Mann as an additional dissenters (even if she votes for a 50bp hike) would not cause big moves. More pertinent is likely to be the individual member paragraphs of the swing voters.
• We also expect to have boxes in the MPR updating neutral rate expectations and giving guidance on the impact that QT has had on gilt yields and market functioning.
• Of course, the guidance will be important, too, but we think that the most likely outcome is that most elements of the guidance remain unchanged.
• Note that the press conference starts 30 minutes later than usual due to renovation work in the BOE’s auditorium relocating the press conference to the Bloomberg building.