MNI Fed Preview - July 2026: Analyst Outlook

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This update of our July 24 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 37

July 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: No July Hike, But Outlook Mixed

All analysts (among 29 previews seen by MNI) expect the FOMC to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its July meeting. But the outlook for rates over the next year and a half is becoming increasingly divergent.

• Statement: Changes are anticipated to be minimal. The main focus is on dissents, with firm consensus being that there will be two in favor of a hike: Hammack and Logan. However we have seen many identify Kashkari as a possible dissenter as well. One analyst (UBS) identified Barr and Cook as having an “outside chance” of joining in a dissent.
• A few analysts anticipate the Statement will remove the reference to maintaining “ample reserves”.
• Otherwise there is no real consensus on changes, with some seeing the Statement acknowledging the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% since the last meeting (UBS), and others raising the possibility of mentioning the soft June inflation data (SocGen: "While recent data indicate some moderation, the Committee needs further evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.").
• Press conference: There is pretty unanimous consensus that Chair Warsh's press conference is unlikely to deliver much signal on the rate outlook, with some suspecting the presser could be shorter than usual.
• Future action: Since the start of 2026, MNI’s analyst median has been for 50bp of cuts remaining in the cycle. That’s still the case but compared with the start of the year when it was unanimously agreed that the next move would be a cut, the outlook has become increasingly divergent. Of 27 analysts in our latest compilation, 5 see rate hikes by end-2027, with 15 looking for cuts and 7 for no change.
• BofA and BNP Paribas are the most hawkish, seeing 75bp of hikes coming; on the other end of the scale, ABNAmro, Citi, and UBS see 75bp of cuts by end-2027.