MNI Fed Review- Apr 2026: Easing Bias Could End Soon (Correct)

(Corrects PDF Link)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• The communications following Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair had two major undercurrents.
• The first was a vocal assertion of policy independence from political influence, in anticipation of the arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair by the next meeting in June.
• The second - and related -  undercurrent was that the door to further rate cuts appears to be closing, with current FOMC members looking increasingly reluctant to support a continuation of the easing cycle regardless of the preferences of the incoming Chair.
• Rates markets concluded the meeting pricing in slightly more tightening. But appropriately given Powell's continued emphasis on seeing more data before making future decisions, most of this hawkish repricing through the meeting could probably be attributed to rising oil prices on developments in the US-Iran war.

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