POLAND: MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: NBP Gov To Unveil Details Of ‘SAFE 0%'

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/NBP_Governor_To_Unveil_Details_Of_SAFE_0_e61800270 9.pdf Executive Summary * Governor Glapiski is due to discuss the details of 'Polish SAFE 0%' on Wednesday. * This comes after the Governor's meeting with the President and Prime Minister. * Latest source reports suggest that the NBP could switch to more active reserve management. President Karol Nawrocki, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and NBP Governor Adam Glapiski, joined by Defence Minister Wadysaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and Finance Minister Andrzej Andrzej Domaski, held a meeting to discuss the proposed ways of funding a massive defence spending spree intended to create credible deterrence against the Russian threat. The operational details of the rival 'Polish SAFE 0%' programme remain somewhat unclear, but the NBP would likely tap unrealised profits on gold reserves to finance defence spending. Governor Adam Glapiski is due to shed some light on the matter and discuss the proposed scheme in greater detail on Wednesday (March 11). In this document, we provide a briefing on the latest developments ahead of the update from the Governor.

EMERGING MARKETS: Trump Says No Reports Of Iran Mining Hormuz Strait

* President Trump on Truth Social: * "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

COMMODITIES: Crude Plunges Amid Optimism on Quick End to Conflict

* Crude markets have displayed additional volatility during US hours after US Energy Secretary Wright posted a video on X to say that the US had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. This was then deleted before the White House confirmed that no such escort had taken place. * WTI APR 26 is currently down by 11% at $84.3/bbl. * The market remains sharply lower on the day after President Trump suggested that the US military was ahead of schedule and that the war in Iran could soon be over. Axios reported that the US asked Israel to halt strikes on Iran's energy. * However, crude spiked again late in the day after a Reuters headline said that Iran might mine the Strait of Hormuz. * From a technical perspective, a volatile impulsive bull wave in WTI futures remains intact. The sharp pullback from Monday's high is not a surprise, given that the uptrend was in an extreme overbought position. * The move down is allowing this overbought condition to unwind. A key support zone to monitor is $72.61 - $66.39, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break through this area would signal a possible trend reversal. * Elsewhere, precious metals have rebounded, as the plunge in crude has weighed on the US dollar. Spot gold is up by 1.1% at $5,197/oz, while silver has risen by 1.5% to $88.3/oz. * For gold, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, with the March 2 high at $5,419.1/oz the next resistance to monitor.

LATAM FX: Andean FX Outperform As Crude Falls Sharply

* The significant decline in crude oil today, despite the bounce off session lows in recent trade, has continued to weigh on the US dollar, with the Bloomberg dollar index extending the pullback from yesterday's highs to around 1%. Latest headlines that suggest Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane have provided some assistance to the greenback, highlighting the continuing volatility of the situation in the middle east. * Against this backdrop, and with major equity indices trading on a firmer footing, Latam FX have outperformed, led by the Chilean peso which has rebounded by over 2.5% after missing out on the rally into the close yesterday. As a result, USDCLP has narrowed the gap to initial firm support at 884.55, the 50-day EMA, significantly. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 851.35, the Feb 9 low. * Improving terms of trade have also supported the Peruvian sol (+1.8%), while even COP has rallied sharply (+1.8%), in spite of the pullback in crude, seemingly supported by rising optimism over the presidential election race as centre-right candidate Valencia's campaign gains momentum. * Elsewhere, USDMXN (-0.3%) fell to one-week lows earlier, piercing support at 17.5276, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would highlight a possible short-term reversal. Similarly, USDBRL has edged lower (-0.2%), leaving the pair just above recent cycle lows (at 5.1157). * Tomorrow, focus turns to the inauguration of President-elect Kast in Chile, while Brazil publishes Jan retail sales data