CHINA: 10-Yr CGB Resets Near Term Range to 1.70-1.80%

* CGB bond yields have moved lower Thursday, following another day of sizeable liquidity injections. With injections tipped to be significant this week ahead of the lunar new year holiday, we noted in recent posts that the risks were skewed to the downside for 10-yr bond yields. https://cms.mnimarkets.com/news/edit/story/317098, especially given the CPI miss. * Week to date the PBOC has injected over CNY1tn of liquidity, utilizing a variety of maturities and with equity markets mixed currently, we anticipated some found find its way into the 10-Yr CGB. * The 10-Yr is down -1.8bps to 1.781% its lowest since September 2025. Back in September expectations for for GDP growth was 4.5-4.7%, in line with the 2026 forecast of 4.5%. * As we approach the March NPC meeting, expectations are growing for monetary action with RRR cuts favoured, whilst some suggest a rate cut could be forthcoming. * Either will provide good support for bonds and could see the 10-Yr range shift down to 1.70-1.80% in the near term. * Bond futures are only up modestly Thursday with the 10-Yr up +.04 at 108.605 - but taking it to overbought on the RSI. Whilst China bond futures may not react necessarily to tech levels, it is important to note the change in momentum.

INDIA: CPI Preview: New Basket Makes Old Comparisons Difficult

* India's January CPI is out later and is forecast at 2.77%, up from +1.33% in December. Whilst there is an uptick in pricing pressures primarily attributed to firmer food prices and a sharp surge in gold and silver costs (up 13% and 19% respectively in January), the majority of the increase can be attributed to the rebasing of the basket. * The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) has overhauled the index to better reflect modern India's spending habits. The base year has shifted from 2012 to 2024, with food weighting now roughly 36% (from 46% previously). This change is expected to reduce the impact of volatile vegetable price swings on the headline number. The basket has grown from 299 to 358 items to include "modern" consumption and includes airfares, e-commerce/online shopping prices (from platforms like Amazon), OTT streaming subscriptions (e.g., Netflix), and telecom plans whilst removing antiquated items like VCRs, radios, and horse-cart fares. * This release brings inflation back into the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2%-6% target band for the first time since August. Markets have moved swiftly in recent months to remove any remaining price cuts. Our swaps model is pricing in 1-2 rate hikes in the next 12 months, with the hikes back ended. * Going forward it will be difficult for the next few months to use CPI as a guide given a short data set. Longer term however it should bring a more relevant reflection of prices in India.

SOUTH KOREA: 3-Yr Rally on JGB Boost as Futures Above Key Tech Level

* The front end in Korea is seeing a strong move lower in yield today, following 3-Yr KTBs / IRS near 1-year highs recently. * The BOK last cut rates in May 2025 and in January 2026 moved to a neutral bias, (from an easing bias) giving little steer for bond investors in the near term. * Currently swaps models suggest little to no movement in rates for the first half of 2026, yet 3-Yr yields are almost +100bps higher from the lows of April last year. * The short end in KTBs has been under pressure with significant amount of issuance in the 1-3Yr maturity bucket for KTBs. Today alone there is a KRW1.2tn 1-Year government bond being issued and impacts the front of the curve. * Year to date issuance estimates are around 10-12% of total government issuance budgeted for the year is already done by mid February and focused in the 1-3-Yr. This has been the driver for the move higher * Three year NDIRS are down -5bps in yield today on no news domestically. Correlations with JGBs have been strong post the election result in Japan and short end JGBs are down today - whilst short end USTs are doing very little. * KTB bond futures didn't react initially to the rally in JGBs but once the orders at open were done, are strong today with the 3-Yr up +.16 to 105.10 and for the first time in February is back above the 20-day EMA of 104.95. Above is the 50-day EMA of 105.23 as topside resistance. * KTB moves at present are very technically driven, given the limited expectation for interest rates in the near term investors are looking for catalysts elsewhere. Watch closely ongoing JGB moves for guides, with correlations up over +.35 at present .

CRYPTO: Ethereum-Heavy Below $2000, But Is Nearing Levels Buyers Could Return

Ethereum had a range overnight of $1902.0 - $2014.39, Asia is trading around 1959, -0.50%. Ethereum has not recovered since it broke below $2600-$2800 and it continues to trade heavy even after pulling back over 60% from its highs in August/September last year. Can this selling continue at this rate ? I feel we are starting to get stretched down here, can it still test the $1400-$1600 support, absolutely. But if you ever had any inkling of getting into crypto we are now approaching levels that should start offering good risk/reward for those looking at with a longer time frame. Technically though it remains in a strong downtrend and would look for sellers initially back toward $2200 initially and then the $2500-$2800 area. * Milk Road on X: "Ethereum staking recently hit 30% of total supply, meaning 36.8M $ETH ($72B at current prices) is now locked up. Nearly 1 million validators are securing the network. The obvious impact: This is a massive supply restriction. One-third of all $ETH is now illiquid, earning a modest 2.83% APR. That's not a sexy yield by crypto standards. Yet people are lining up anyway." * "Bottom line: When people lock up $74B during a price dip, they're not speculating. They're settling in. Watch that queue. It's a sentiment indicator." * Ethereum's Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $152 Fig 1: Ethereum spot Daily Chart Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P