Emerging markets
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EM Bullets
* MNI interviews former Banxico economist on rate outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
Feb-26 19:45* Crude has had a volatile session on Thursday, driven by changing sentiment over the US-Iran talks. After bouncing earlier amid reports of a hardening of Iran's stance, crude ended the session lower following headlines from Omani mediators that significant progress had been made in the talks. * The progress, and reports that talks will continue at a technical level next week, are bearish as they signal that a breakthrough deal to limit Iran's nuclear programme and avert a US strike are possible. * A US official was quoted by Axios as saying the talks were "positive", while Iran's Araghchi said talks were some of the most serious, although in some areas there are differences of opinion. * WTI Apr 26 is down by 0.4% at $65.2/bbl. * From a technical perspective, a bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact, and the latest pullback is, for now, considered corrective. The recent break of $65.99, the Jan 29 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens $68.11, the Jun 23 '25 high. * Key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at $62.03. A clear break of this is required to signal a stronger reversal. * Meanwhile, precious metals have had a mixed session as waning risk sentiment boosted the US dollar. Spot gold has edged up by 0.4% to $5,186/oz, but silver has fallen by 1.4% to $88.0/oz. * For gold, initial resistance is at $5,249.6, the Feb 24 high, while for silver the next support is at $72.020, the Feb 17 low.
Feb-26 19:43* Speaking during the presentation of the Q4 Quarterly Inflation Report, Banxico Governor Rodriguez struck a dovish tone on the inflation outlook, emphasising that she sees no secondary effects on prices from the recent excise tax hike. * Her remarks follow similarly dovish comments from Deputy Governor Borja in an interview yesterday, where she highlighted the weak growth backdrop, in particular the decline in investment, as well as the strength of the Mexican peso, as factors supporting a renewed rate cut. Borja said that she sees no significant price pressures on the near-term horizon. * "*RODRIGUEZ: NO SECONDARY EFFECT ON PRICES FROM TAX HIKE" - BBG * "*RODRIGUEZ: SERVICE INFLATION HAS SHOWN A STEADY REDUCTION"
Feb-26 19:10* EM currencies have pared earlier losses following the news that the US and Iran will continue talks next week at a technical level. The likes of ZAR, MXN and BRL have bounced off session lows, although they remain marginally weaker against the dollar on the day. * Although the headlines are a bearish factor for energy, it is worth noting that during 12-day war, Israeli strikes began before a further round of US-Iran negotiations were due. * "*OMAN SAYS US, IRAN TALKS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS" - BBG * "*OMAN SAYS US, IRAN TALKS WILL RESUME SOON AFTER CONSULTATIONS" * "*OMAN SAYS TALKS ON TECHNICAL LEVEL WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK"
Feb-26 18:51Central Bank
We see no change from the BoT this week as they wait for clarity on government policy.
February 24, 2026 04:18We expect no change for a sixth consecutive meeting for the BOK.
February 24, 2026 03:21The NBH is expected to cut the base rate by 25bps to 6.25% - the first cut since September 2024.
February 23, 2026 08:43The NBH is expected to cut the base rate by 25bps to 6.25% - the first cut since September 2024.
February 20, 2026 15:25Market Analysis
Mexico and Brazil Mid-Month CPI, Banxico QIR
Feb-20 16:51The NBH is expected to cut rates for the first time since Nov'2024. South Africa's FinMin presents the annual budget.
Feb-20 15:51South Africa CPI inflation data for January provides the highlight across the CEEMEA region next week.
Feb-13 17:34The major data releases and events scheduled across LatAm next week.
Feb-13 17:32Political Risk
MNI's Political Risk team outlines the major political events scheduled throughout the year in 2026
December 31, 2025 14:42We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
November 28, 2025 13:07The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.
November 21, 2025 17:00Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".
November 06, 2025 13:01Election Previews
PM Takaichi looks to secure a majority for the LDP in 8 Feb election to ease passage of her fiscal stimulus agenda
Feb-05 15:36Election sets up a 3-way contest between progressives, populists, and conservatives that will influence policy direction
Feb-04 16:51First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17
