ECB: Negotiated Wage Growth Still Below 3% By End-26, Another Upward Revision

The ECB's forward looking wage tracker continues to indicate negotiated wage growth of just below 3% by the end of this year. Note that at last week's press conference, President Lagarde stressed that "the contribution to overall wage growth from payments over and above the negotiated wage component remains uncertain" - this followed the stronger-than-expected compensation per employee reading in Q4 2025. * The wage tracker excluding one-off payments was 2.693% in the February updated, up from 2.681% in December. * Note that upward revisions have become common in this series. For example, the Q2 2026 reading of 2.650% was 2.582% in December and 2.489% in October. * From the ECB's press release: "The rise in the wage path over the course of the year is related to the dissipation of the mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments that were made in 2024 but not in 2025. These mechanical effects are expected to virtually disappear over the course of 2026, and the wage trackers with one-off payments (smoothed and unsmoothed) and without one-off payments are expected to converge as such payments become less relevant. The ECB wage tracker also suggests that there is less dispersion in negotiated wage pressures across the different euro area countries in 2026 than in previous years." * "As new agreements are being signed and coverage of contracts reaching beyond 2026 is gradually increasing, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 data release."

ZAR: Rand Paces Gains In EMEA Space

USD/ZAR has edged higher amid an uptick in gold prices and ahead of tomorrow's 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA). The rate last deals at 15.8650, around 850 pips lower on the day, which brings the recent cyclical low of 15.6443 into view. A dip through that level would open up 15.6134 next, the 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - Oct 9 - Nov 5 price swing. Conversely, bullish focus falls on the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 16.3991. * President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver his annual SONA tomorrow evening and may offer some clues ahead of the National Budget on February 25. This will be Ramaphosa's second SONA since the formation of the coalition Government of National Unity (GNU). * The precious metals subindex has added 1.4% against a 0.7% rise in Bloomberg Commodity Index. Gold trades ~$24/oz. higher on the day, with platinum pricing moving ~$64/oz. north. The FTSE/JSE precious metals and mining index is 2% firmer on the session. * SAGB curve has shifted lower in the wake of a solid bond auction yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yield has moved deeper below the 8% mark, to the lowest levels since 2015. South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates sit at 3.39% and 4.02%, respectively.

CZECHIA: Finance Ministry Holds Debt Auction

* Prime Minister Andrej Babi and his counterparts from Austria and Slovakia issued a joint statement in which they called on the EU to consider measures to bring electricity prices lower. Babi said that they have a shared objective of finding more allies for their 'friends of competitiveness' group ahead of the upcoming summit of EU leaders. He will now head to France for a meeting with President Emmanuel Macron tonight before the EU summit tomorrow. * Chamber of Deputies Speaker Tomio Okamura told iDNES.cz that the governing coalition was considering fielding joint candidates in this year's Senate elections in a bid to take control over the 100-seat upper house, where it currently holds only 15 seats (all ANO). * The Finance Ministry is looking to sell CZK3.0bn of 5.75% 2029 bonds, CZK3.0bn of 4.25% 2034 bonds and CZK5.0bn of 3.60% 2036 bonds.

IRAN: Larijani: Date For Future US Talks Still Under Consideration

Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani is en route to Doha following talks with senior Omani officials in Muscat on 10 Feb. The senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei travelled to Oman to assess the state of play following the first round of talks between US and Iranian officials last week. There remains no set date or place for a second round of talks, with Larijani saying only that the date was "still under consideration". He added that the talks were "relatively good", and "It seems the US wants to move the talks towards a solution." * Semi-official Iranian outlet Borna News reports : https://borna.news/en/news/4078/larijani-success-in-current-nuclear-talks-could -lead-to-broader-engagementthat Larijani "further clarified that if the primary American concern is ensuring that Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, the issue is entirely resolvable. However, he warned that if matters beyond the nuclear scope are introduced into the negotiations, the process could face significant obstacles." The US has been keen to discuss the Iranian ballistic missile programme and its proxy network in the region, as well as its nuclear programme, as part of talks. * Comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House later today (11 Feb). Trump has already threatened to send a second aircraft carrier to the region in an effort to raise the pressure on Tehran.