UKRAINE: NYT-US Pressuring Kyiv On Concessions To End War By Early Summer

NYT reports : https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-peace-talks.html that according to a Ukrainian official, "the Trump administration is ramping up pressure on them to make concessions to Russia in a push to end the war by early summer." The view in Kyiv is that the Trump administration's focus will shift away from foreign policy issues as the summer draws to a close and the November midterms become the prime political focus after Labor Day in early September. * The gov't of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains mired in the difficult position of "trying to balance between meeting American expectations and avoiding what it views as unacceptable compromises on territory and other issues." * Following confirmation from the Kremlin earlier today, the next round of tripartite talks are seen as likely to take place in Florida on 17/18 Feb. * The report notes that it is unclear what the US may do if it does not get its way on issues such as holding presidential elections and territorial concessions. Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a lawmaker from the opposition pro-EU Holos party, tells NYT that the Trump adminsitration has threatened to pull out of negotiations if Kyiv does not move to hold presidential elections soon. This would chime with the FT report : https://www.ft.com/content/50d3d86b-2d2a-4d06-845e-a4e089382cadearlier this week suggesting Zelenskyy was planning on holding elections and a referendum (a claim swifly denied by the Ukrainian gov't). * A withdrawal of the US from any peace talks would risk being viewed as a precursor to the US stepping back from military/financial support for Ukraine or relaxing sanctions on Russia.

CZK: Koruna Remains Stable, CNB Inflation Comments Eyed

EUR/CZK remains in a holding pattern, last dealing at 24.254, as CNB minutes and final January CPI data provided little new information ahead of the release of the CNB's comments on the latest inflation data at 12:00GMT/13:00CET. Familiar technical levels remain in play. Bullish focus falls on Dec 18/Nov 5 highs of 24.411/24.420, with bears eyeing recent troughs around 24.1 and the the next round figure below. * The CZSO confirmed January inflation at +1.6% Y/Y in final reading. Meanwhile, CNB minutes released at the same time showed that Bank Board members decided to ignore first-round effects of the waiver of renewable energy sources fee, which drive inflation below target at the beginning of the year. At the same time, they will monitor second-round effects as some members argued that the increase in households' disposable income could translate into a pick-up in consumer demand. * Czechia's current-account surplus widened to CZK8.51bn in December, missing Bloomberg consensus forecast of CZK14.0bn (a median of seven widely dispersed entries). * CZGB yield curve is marginally steeper. The PX Index is 1% softer on the day and is putting its 50-DMA to a test amid wider global risk aversion.

RUSSIA: CBR Will Assess Need for "A Further Key Rate Cut"

Highlights from the statement: * The Bank of Russia will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations. * The baseline scenario assumes the average key rate to be in the range from 13.5% to 14.5% per annum in 2026. This means that monetary conditions will remain tight. * In January, price growth accelerated significantly due to one-off factors. * However, the Bank of Russia estimates that the underlying measures of current price growth have not changed considerably. After the effect of one-off factors fades, disinflation will continue. * Annual inflation will decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026. * Most indicators of underlying inflation remained in the range of 4-5% in annualised terms in recent months. * Proinflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones in the mid-term horizon. Click here: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr/?file=13022026_133000key_e.htm to see the full statement.

RUSSIA: CBR Cut Key Rate 50bps to 15.50%

* "*RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK CUTS KEY RATE TO 15.50%; EST. 16.00%" - BBG