MNI EXCLUSIVE: Advisors & Analysts On The Chinese Property Market

Advisors and analysts share their outlook for China's property market -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

TWD: USD/TWD Divergence With Exports Continues, Equity May Remain Preferred

Spot USD/TWD sits off recent highs, but at 31.57, is only marginally below resistance near the 31.70 region (which has marked highs so far in 2026). Recent lows sit close to 31.27 from the end of Jan. Today's little change comes despite firmer CNH and JPY tones (with USD/CNH eyeing a 6.9000 downside test). We also had the bumper Jan trade data late yesterday (+69.9%y/y exports, versus +56.7% forecast). BoFA via BBG also: " Bank of America Corp. revised its projection for Taiwan's economic growth this year to 8% from 4.5% due to "relentless global demand" for tech hardware." * The chart below shows the wide divergence between spot USD/TWD and export growth. Other factors, particularly in terms of domestic capital outflow pressures (and/or less hedging of such outflows) is playing a role in this divergence. * The strength of Taiwan's external balances is one of the reasons Taiwan stays on the US Treasury's FX monitoring list. Still, given the recent US-Taiwan trade deal and commitment from tech bellwether TSMC to invest into the US, current USD/TWD trends may not see a strong response from the US authorities (i.e. calling for a sharply stronger TWD). * Local equities remain on the front foot, the TWSE rising to fresh cycle highs and this may remain the preferred expression for the upbeat AI/tech related outlook for the local economy. Fig 1: USD/TWD (Inverted) & Taiwan Export Growth Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI

ASIA STOCKS: Japan Effect Sees Regional Gains, NIFTY 50 Strong Uptrend Building

* Stocks in Japan continue to lead today following the election result and optimism over the economy. Investors are pricing in the PMs "Sanaenomics" agenda, which includes a 21 trillion stimulus package, potential tax relief (suspending the 8% sales tax on food), and increased defense and AI spending. The ongoing earnings season has exceeded expectations. Heavyweights like SoftBank Group saw shares spike over 10% today after upgrading full-year forecasts. Other major gainers include Furukawa Electric (+22%) and NEC, which announced a significant share buyback. This momentum is supported by structural reforms that have raised Japan's average Return on Equity expectations significantly. This sees the NKY up +2.3% today and nearly 7% in the last three trading days. * The Japan effect lifted regional bourses with all major indexes up . China was more subdued to modest gains as markets start to wind down ahead of the upcoming holidays and the KOSPI rose by just +0.10%. * Despite news that FTSE Russell are following the lead by MSCI, the Jakarta Composite brushed off these further concerns with a second day of gains, up +1.1% today. * India's NIFTY 50 is +0.30% and continues to deliver solid daily gains. Since the announcement of the US trade deal, the NIFTY 50 has gained almost 5% to be near 26,000 again. The bullish momentum is strong for the NIFTY 50 according to the MACD analysis. The short term exponential average is significantly longer than the long term suggesting a strong uptrend is building for the index.

THB: Downside 31.00 Test Still In Focus As Post Election Optimism Continues

USD/THB sits up modestly from earlier lows, last at 31.14. Earlier we got to just under 31.08, so not far off a re-test under the 31.00 level, which marked late Jan lows for the pair. This is a further 0.30% gain in THB today, after yesterday's 1.3% surge. Pre-election highs around 31.80/90, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA resistance point, is a likely topside focus point on any renewed upside in the pair. The near term bias still looks for a lower test, as market sentiment was boosted by the weekend election result. Still, there is caution from some sell-side names on the pair, particularly as we progress further into 2026, given policy efforts to curb THB outperformance (see below) * The SET index is up a further 0.65% so far today, through 1400, amidst strong offshore inflows (+$500mn yesterday). Indeed Thailand has seen the strongest 2026 YTD inflows within EM Asia markets (ex China). Gold's modest dip so far today isn't impacting THB greatly. * Goldman Sachs still believes the authorities will look to curb gold outperformance and curb THB outperformance: "we think THB will gradually shift to underperform low-yield Asian FX markets this year, after outperforming peers and market expectations last year. Both the BoT and MoF appear unified in trying to curb THB strength (including trying to de-linking the gold/THB correlation) with some measures already announced (such as limits on online gold trading) and more likely in the pipeline, post the formation of the new government. "