EMERGING MARKETS: LATAM FX Price Signal Summary – USDMXN Trend Points South

* The trend structure in USDMXN remains bearish. Recent fresh cycle lows reinforce the bear theme. This confirms a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The extension down signals scope for a move towards 16.9806 next, the 3.000 projection of the Nov 5 - 13 - 21 price swing. Key resistance to watch is 17.6519, the 50-day EMA. * The trend condition in USDCLP remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last month reinforces the bear theme. Potential is seen for an extension towards; 845.72, the 1.618 projection of the Apr 9 - Jul 2 - Jul 30 2025 price swing, and 833.73, the 76.4% retracement of the 2023 - 2025 bull phase. Initial resistance is at 866.42, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at $885.91. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

FED: Bowman: "A Little Softer" CPI In Line With Her Expectations

Bowman (voter, dove) a little earlier in Q&A comments at the ABA conference, including Friday's inflation data being "a little softer" than most expected but in line with her expectations: * "Since I see the current policy stance as moderately restrictive, I do think there's room for at least 75bp of more cuts in 2026 [] that's what I wrote into my forecasts last December". * [That's not a surprise having indicated as such in remarks on Jan 30, when she added that while she didn't elect to cut rates in January, she could be ready to cut in March] * She's still focused on threats to employment stability despite a better-than-expected jobs report for January, pointing to growth concentrated in a couple of sectors as "not a sign of a healthy labor market." At the same time, Bowman said she was heartened by the latest inflation data and believes prices pressures will continue to subside. * "We got some more data in it's a little softer than I think most expected. That's in line with my expectations that we will start to see inflation decline much closer to 2% especially as the tariff effects begin to wane even further." The full text from her speech on revitalizing bank mortgage lending can be found here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20260216a.htm, where she noted that US banks are to see new mortgage capital requirements in the basel plan.

INDIA: Trade Officials To Travel To US Next Week To Finalise Trade Agreement

Indian trade secretary Rajesh Agrawal said he will travel to the US next week to finalise a trade agreement. He added that he expects Washington to reduce US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% this week, per Reuters. The framework agreement is expected to be concluded by late March. * The final details of the agreement appear in flux, with uncertainty over India's willingness to phase out Russian oil imports, which Delhi continues to address ambiguously, and potential pushback from India's powerful farm sector. France24 notes that the interim agreement, "has rattled India's powerful farmers' unions, who argue that cheap US imports would throttle local producers in a country where agriculture employs more than 700 million people." * WSJ reported February 3, "For much of 2025, India relied on Russia for roughly a third of its oil imports, up from just 2% before Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. In January, the country imported 1.1 million barrels a day from Russia, according to ship-tracking company Vortexa. As a comparison, India imported only 0.3 million barrels a day from the U.S. last month." * On whether India can cut Russian oil imports, David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa, said, "I'm skeptical. It would be a huge decision for India to completely move away from Russian crude. I don't think that the real intention is to bring India's Russia crude imports to zero. It's more to increase the pressure on Russia." Figure 2: India Crude Oil Imports Source: Wall Street Journal

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 16-22 Feb

Access Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIPOLITICALRISK_Week_Ahead16_22_Feb_c116e107bc.pd f (MNI) London - All timings are subject to change. Monday 16 February: * Hungary-US: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Budapest for talks with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. Late last week, US President Donald Trump offered his formal endorsement of Orban ahead of the general election taking place in April. The Hungarian government has been the most vocal supporter of Trump within the EU. At a joint press conference, Rubio indicated that the 'financial shield' offered to Orban by Trump would be provided if needed, although without saying the sums entailed. * India: The India-AI Impact Summit 2026 gets underway in New Delhi. The summit is intended to foster discussions on the responsible deployment of AI at scale. As well as CEOs of Nvidia, Anthropic, Alphabet and the WEF, national leaders: https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/40773/World_Leaders_at_the_Indi aAI_Impact_Summit_2026 including Brazilian President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez will also be in attendance through the course of the event, running to 20 February.