Emerging markets
https://my.mnimarkets.com/dashboard?widget=/bullets/em-bulletsReal-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region.
EM Bullets
Much like Tuesday's session, USD/CNH ran out of downside momentum around 6.8600 before support emerged. We track near 6.8780 in early Thursday dealings, after being little changed in aggregate for Wednesday's session. For USD/CNH we are under all key EMAs, with the 50-day (now around 6.9290) acting as an upside resistance point. A clean break under 6.8600 is likely to see late Feb lows (6.8267) ultimately targeted. Broader USD sentiment recovered through Wednesday trade (BBDXY index back above 1200), as oil prices were supported (despite the IEA announcing a 400mn bbl release). * Still, the CNH/yuan outperformance theme continued. CNH/JPY is just off Wednesday highs, the pair under 23.11 in latest dealings. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 6.8741 on Wednesday, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker rose 0.11% to 99.57, not far from recent highs of 99.90. * CNH is outperforming the firmer US-CH yield differential backdrop (see the chart below) as US Tsy yields remain supported on oil induced inflation fears. * Some offset is coming from relative China equity outperformance, while the downtrend in the USD/CNY fixing is also aiding CNH resilience/outperformance. * In terms of the local data calendar, we still await the Feb new loans/aggregate finance data. Feb FDI flows are also due over the next week. Fig 1: USD/CNH Not Tracking Higher US-CH Yield Differentials Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
Mar-11 22:35The range overnight for USD/SGD was 1.2709 - 1.2749, Asia is currently trading around 1.2745. The pair continued to find demand back toward 1.2700 after the ugly rejection of the 1.2850 area. Singapore is arguably one of Asia's most vulnerable nations relating to Oil, so the efforts to sell global reserves has benefitted the pair. How sustainable those efforts are and how long this conflict is going to be drawn out remains key. This 1.2850-1.2900 area looks pivotal to me and a sustained break above here is needed to start potentially talking about a trend reversal. In today's session, I suspect we see sellers initially back toward 1.2750-1.2780, but the range looks to be a whippy 1.2650-1.2850 as the moves in Oil dictate direction. * "Trump told Axios the war would end soon because there is "practically nothing left to target" in Iran, the latest indication he's keen to wrap up the campaign." - BBG * The USD/SGD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 59 Points Fig 1 : USD/SGD Spot Daily Chart Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
Mar-11 21:58* Bank of Thailand to Sell THB35 bn of 364-Days FRNs * Singapore to Sell S$8.3 Billion 182-Day Bills * Bank Indonesia to Sell 93-Day Bills * Bank Indonesia to Sell 31-Day Bills * Bank Indonesia to Sell 275-Day Bills * Bank Indonesia to Sell 184-Day Bills * Bank Indonesia to Sell 365-Day Bills
Mar-11 21:28------------------------------------------------ 1030GMT 1930HKT 2130AEDT India CPI YoY FEB Source: Bloomberg FInance LP / MNI
Mar-11 21:27Central Bank
The BCRP is widely expected to leave its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 4.25% for a sixth consecutive meeting.
March 11, 2026 15:13The CBRT is widely expected to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 37%.
March 10, 2026 11:40There is limited pressure on the BNM to adjust rates given economic resilience.
March 04, 2026 00:20The Iran conflict raised uncertanty around the outcome of the NBP's policy meeting expected to result in a 25bp cut.
March 03, 2026 12:20Market Analysis
Mexico and Brazil February CPI inflation and the BCRP rate decision are the main focuses across Latam.
Mar-06 17:04CPI inflation data in Hungary and Poland and the CBRT rate decision highlight next week's calendar.
Mar-06 15:46Brazil Q4 GDP and Chile and Colombia February CPI inflation are the main focuses across Latam next week.
Feb-27 17:17The NBP rate decision and Turkey CPI inflation data provide the highlights across the region next week.
Feb-27 15:34Political Risk
Amid confused signalling on the war in Iran, MNI assesses factors pushing towards a short or long-term conflict
March 10, 2026 16:48President Nawrocki and NBP Governor Glapiński announced a proposed alternative to the EU's loans-for-weapons scheme.
March 05, 2026 12:30We look at the market and political implications of the Spring Statement and expectations for the FY26/27 gilt remit.
March 02, 2026 07:04MNI's Political Risk team outlines the major political events scheduled throughout the year in 2026
December 31, 2025 14:42Election Previews
PM Takaichi looks to secure a majority for the LDP in 8 Feb election to ease passage of her fiscal stimulus agenda
Feb-05 15:36Election sets up a 3-way contest between progressives, populists, and conservatives that will influence policy direction
Feb-04 16:51First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17
