Emerging markets
https://my.mnimarkets.com/dashboard?widget=/bullets/em-bulletsReal-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region.
EM Bullets
Spot USD/KRW is a little higher so far today, last 1477/78, up 0.20%, but it remains under yesterday's fresh highs of 1482.25. Dec lows rest at 1463.65. Local equities continue to struggle, while a further $200mn in net outflows from offshore investors has been seen today. Below we highlight some of the further measures/meetings the authorities are enacting to aid won sentiment/flows. * Via the Korea Economic Daily: "South Korea's presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom will hold an emergency meeting with 7 conglomerates on Thursday to discuss FX issues, Korea Economic Daily reports, citing unidentified people in presidential office". (via BBG). The aim of this meeting is likely to be to encourage fresh exporter conversion into the won. * The "South Korea eased FX rules to boost onshore dollar liquidity as the government intensifies efforts to stabilize the won, according to an emailed statement." via BBG). See this link : https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T7FV6YKIP3IUfor more details. These measures look to be designed to encourage capital inflows into South Korea.
Dec-18 06:09In South East Asia FX, trends have been mixed, with THB and PHP edging higher, while IDR and SGD have lost ground. For USD/INR we have started today's session quieter than yesterday (when USD/INR plunged on RBI led intervention), with USD/INR spot near 90.20 currently, off around 0.20% on end Wednesday levels (lows from yesterday were just under 90.10). * THB remains in focus as the BoT and authorities continue to argue for a weaker currency and look to break the link between gold gains and THB. Still, USD/THD remains wedged under 31.45 at this stage, which is still close to recent multi year lows (31.41). The BoT Governor stated that low growth is the new norm for Thailand and while further easing can be provided the central bank is mindful of limited policy space. * USD/PHP is comfortably back under 59.00 as year end approaches. We were last 58.60/65, up around 0.20% in PHP terms so far today. We are currently around the 50-day EMA support point. Earlier in Dec we got under this support level (hitting lows of 58.365), but the dip wasn't sustained. Better seasonal due to remittance inflows ahead of year end may be in play for recent PHP gains. * USD/IDR spot has rise a little last back above 16720. This is fresh highs back to late Nov. Weaker global equity market sentiment is a likely headwind, while USD demand may also be coming in ahead of year end. All key EMAs are trending higher. Yesterday the BI kept rates on hold. The decision was primarily driven by the need to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar amid high global economic uncertainty. * USD/MYR maintains a downside bias, last under 4.0870, but is down a touch so far today. The pair is also oversold per RSI (14).
Dec-18 05:21Falls in US tech stocks overnight spilled over into Asia today with key AI tech names falling, dragging down key indexes. Japanese stocks had the dual pressure of an expected interest rate hike tomorrow from the BOJ and downward pressure from tech stocks, with key tech stock Softbank Group down -3.3%. The tech weakness spilled over into Korea with Samsung down -1.3% and SK Hynix down -5%. AI remains a major long-term structural theme for Asian tech manufacturers and is a key driver of performance, especially in the semiconductor sector but given the run up in stocks year to date, a correction was increasingly likely. Asia's equity markets and capital flows are impacted by US monetary policy and as such, eyes will be on the CPI release for November tonight. * The NIKKEI is down -0.85% today and down over 3% for the week, whilst the KOSPI is down -1.3% and nearly 3% for the week as tech stocks struggle. * China's bourses are mixed with the Hang Seng down -0.44%, CSI 300 down -056%, Shenzhen down -0.17% whilst the Shanghai Comp is up +0.16% as tech firms buck regional trends with modest gains. * The NIFTY 50 is up modestly, though down for the week as foreign institutional investors continue to sell as valuations near 5-year peaks. The NIFTY 50 at 25,832 is near the 50-day EMA of 25,767 as downside resistance, with topside resistance from the 20-day EMA at 25,932. * SE Asia's bourse seemingly have their focus on the US data release with Jakarta and KL near flat, whilst the SE Thai is down -0.20%.
Dec-18 05:17* Korea's bond futures are moving in opposing directions today, as the 3-Yr breaks above a key technical level. * The 3-Yr is up +0.07 to 105.47, above the 20-day EMA of 105.44. Topside resistance in the form of the 50-day EMA is at 105.88. The 3-Yr has gained for each of the last five trading days. * The 10-Yr is down -0.13 today to 113.12, below the 20-day EMA of 113.31 * Cash markets are lower in yield out to 10-Yrs with the short end the best performers. KTB 3-Yr is down -2.3bps to 2.981% and the 10-Yr down -0.5bps to 3.322%. * As one of the higher correlated bond markets in Asia to the US, KTB investors will watch closely Thursday for the release of the NOV CPI in the US.
Dec-18 04:12Central Bank
BanRep is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting on Friday.
December 17, 2025 17:09The CBR is expected to continue with monetary policy easing following two months of lower-than-expected inflation.
December 17, 2025 11:41Banxico is expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 7.0% on Thursday.
December 16, 2025 16:14The CNB is expected to deliver another unanimous stand-pat decision this week, keeping the two-week repo rate at 3.50%.
December 16, 2025 11:04Market Analysis
Rate decisions in Hungary, Czechia and Russia take focus, while CPI inflation data for November is due in South Africa.
Dec-12 14:50Turkish markets are braced for volatility ahead of a key court ruling targetting the oppostion CHP's 2023 congress.
Sep-12 14:03The more we look into the of the ReArm plan details, the less impressive we think the final spending numbers will be.
Mar-13 16:37By Jonathan Cavenagh, Maxine Koster, Gavin Stacey, Sam Hunter MNI (SYDNEY) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY JAPAN * Data this week has been mixed, wage and spending trends suggesting there is no rush for the BoJ to tighten further in the near term. The PPI was stronger than forecast though. The yen has fallen around 6.5% versus the USD since mid-September, which, if this trend continues, may bring BoJ focus back onto the weaker FX issue. AUSTRALIA * The RBA minutes reported that the Board discussed scenarios that would result in both tightening or easing at its September meeting. * NAB reported a pick up in both business conditions and confidence in September and an easing in price and cost pressures, although labour cost increases remain above average. Westpac consumer confidence was also positive jumping to its highest since rate hikes began in May 2022. NEW ZEALAND * The RBNZ increased its pace of easing by cutting the OCR 50bp to 4.75% today, as expected. The MPC felt that "restraint" could be lessened as inflation is "within" the 1-3% target range and approaching the mid-point. It seemed to opt for an increase in the pace of easing to "avoid unnecessary instability" in the economy and markets. It noted that policy is still restrictive though. SHORT TERM RATES * Year-end official rate expectations across the $-bloc have shown a mixed performance over the past week. The US has firmed by 20bps, New Zealand has softened by 10bps, while Canada and Australia have seen little change. CHINA * All eyes remain on China stimulus measures, with a key press conference taking place tomorrow from the MOF on fiscal policy. We have more meetings at the start of next week. Local equities sit comfortably off recent highs. SOUTH KOREA * The BoK started its easing cycle today, but aggressive follow up action is unlikely as the central bank keeps one eye on financial stability issues. ASIA * The RBI kept rates on hold as widely expected, with the key rate held at 6.50%. The central bank did shift its long held policy stance from 'withdrawal of accommodation' to neutral. This is seen as the first step towards the central bank ultimately cutting the policy rate. * Thai inflation may have troughed but it remains very low. Inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year with the government forecasting October to rise to 1.25%. Government pressure on the Bank of Thailand to cut rates continues. * The MAS in Singapore is expected to keep policy setting steady at Monday's policy meeting. ASIA EQUITY FLOWS * Equity flows have generally remained negative for the past week. See the attached below for more details.weekly macro round up (October 11 2024) .pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/weekly_macro_round_up_October_11_2024_479171eb6e.p df
Oct-11 05:41Political Risk
We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable
November 28, 2025 13:07The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.
November 21, 2025 17:00Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".
November 06, 2025 13:01A trio of legal challenges to Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra will define Thailand's medium-term political outlook.
August 21, 2025 07:50Election Previews
First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency
Nov-13 13:03Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.
Oct-28 16:17President Milei needs strong electoral performance to keep Trump on side with US support on the line
Oct-23 14:59Babis looks to return for 2nd term as PM amid rise in support for populist parties, PM Fiala's coalition facing defeat
Oct-02 10:28
