HUNGARY: February CPI Expected to Mark Inflation Trough

Inflation data for February is due later this morning (07:30GMT/08:30CET). Headline CPI is expected to moderate further, from +2.1% Y/Y to around +1.7% Y/Y, with prices seen rising +0.4% M/M (Prior: +0.3%). January's print showed an improving inflation structure, with services lower than typically seen at the start of the year. Combined with ongoing favourable base effects and the government's price shield measures, this should continue to weigh on annual inflation. February is expected to mark the trough in the headline series, particularly in light of the recent spike in crude prices. * Goldman Sachs expect headline inflation to fall to +1.6% Y/Y. They note that the decline will be driven by broad-based base effects, though also expect weak sequential momentum to be maintained throughout most categories in the CPI basket. Due to the timing of base effects in the months ahead, February will almost certainly represent the trough in inflation, Goldman add. * ING expect inflation to moderate to +1.5% Y/Y in February. The high base is still having a significant impact, but the monthly repricing is also expected to be muted (+0.2%). Food prices remained stable and household energy prices probably fell on a monthly basis. The stability of the HUF in February probably also helped to limit imported inflation. ING add that even without the recent energy price shock, February would have marked the low point of this year's inflation trajectory, and that the only remaining question is how quickly inflation will accelerate again. * JP Morgan say inflation likely fell to +1.6% Y/Y, driven mainly by low food pricing momentum and favourable base effects in items like regulated prices and alcohol & tobacco. Fuel prices increased on the month, and likely provided some offset, even before the recent rise in commodity prices. They add that core CPI likely fell deeper towards 2.1% Y/Y (from 2.6%) due mainly to the processed food component. JPM say February is likely to be the low point for headline CPI, with some rebound expected from March.

HUNGARY: Hungary Cuts Excise Tax on Motor Fuels

* National Economy Minister Marton Nagy said in a post on social media late Monday that Hungary is reducing excise tax levels on motor fuel to the minimum allowed by EU rules. The excise tax on petrol will be cut by HUF 19.25 to HUF 139.55/liter, while the excise tax on diesel will be reduced by HUF 20.48 to HUF 128.28/liter, Nagy said. He added that the government is also introducing a ban on exports of crude, 95-octane petrol and diesel, and will take firm action against predatory trade practices. * The announcement came not long after Prime Minister Viktor Orban introduced price caps at the pump to mitigate the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The government capped petrol prices at HUF 595/litre and diesel prices at HUF 615/litre, effective today. * Hungary's parliament will vote on a ruling party resolution rejecting efforts to make Ukraine an EU member and to provide financing to defend itself against Russia. The vote is expected at around 09:30GMT/10:30CET, per Bloomberg. * CPI inflation data for February is due later this morning (see more in upcoming post). Minutes from the NBH's February rate-setting meeting are due tomorrow.

ASIA STOCKS: Asian Stocks Higher as Oil Slides / Geopolitical Tensions Ease

* Asian equity markets staged a sharp broad-based rebound today recovering from a massive sell-off in the previous session. * The historic plunge in oil prices, which fell over 10% toward $90 per barrel after Trump suggested the Middle East conflict could "end soon". * Nikkei 225 jumped 2.07% to close near 53,821, clawing back roughly half of Monday's 6% plunge. It had reached 54,694 earlier before profit takers took over sending the index back to more moderate gains. Key AI tech stocks are strong today with Keyance Corp up +3.5% and Advantest up +4.5% whilst Softbank lagged with only modest gains of +.40%. * The KOSPI surged over 6% initially, settling back to gains of 4.8%, triggering a trading curb after futures rose more than 5%. SK Hynix is flying Tuesday up +10.4% and Samsung up +8.5% whilst key energy stocks like Daesung Energy fell -12.5% * The Hang Seng is up +1.5% as onshore bourses are up around 1% supported by tech and travel gains. Sentiment was bolstered by China's exports surged 21.8% in the January-February period, far exceeding forecasts. * SE Asia's bourses have bounced also with the JCI, FTSE Malay and SE Thai up +.70, +1.4% and +1.17% respectively. For each the additionally catalyst was a stronger day for the respective currencies having been suffering under USD strength in recent days. * Markets will remain pinned to headlines regarding the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Sentiment currently hinges on whether Trump's signal of a "very soon" resolution holds true.

MYR: USDMYR Rolls Over, Tests 20-day EMA Support

* USDMYR is lower today as DXY moderates wtih oil, and following better than expected economic data. * USDMYR is down by -.0298 to be near 3.9295 / 3.9355 and a Ringgit gain of +.75%. * The moves see the pair testing the 20-day EMA of 3.9342, having spent most of the four months below it. A successful break below will bring 3.92 into play for the pair. * Today saw the release of the January Industrial Production which was up strongly by +5.9% (from +4.8% in December). * Risk sentiment generally is strong with the FTSE Malay KLCI up +1.4% and bond yields lower by 3-4bps at the long end of the MGS curve.