Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region.

EM Bullets

* The New York Times reports that Trump aides are mulling Section 122 and 301 tariffs as President Trump considers across-the-board tariffs on partners following the Supreme Court's decision earlier today to block IEEPA tariffs. * Link to the full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/us/politics/trump-tariffs-plans.html * That shouldn't be surprising considering well-touted back-up plans in the event of this outcome. * Further, recall Kavanaugh's dissent earlier today: "With respect to tariffs in particular, the Court's decision might not prevent Presidents from imposing most if not all of these same sorts of tariffs under other statutory authorities." Kavanaugh cites Section 122, 201, and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974; Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. We note that the Trump White House has already said that it would use such other means to re-impose tariffs if IEEPA were struck down, so this ruling doesn't mean the end of tariffs. * The report lands ahead of an imminent press briefing from President Trump himself, currently twenty minutes past the proposed 1245ET.

Feb-20 18:05

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to hold a press conference on today's Supreme Court ruling that struck down his 'reciprocal' tariffs. A livestream will be available on CSPAN: https://www.c-span.org/. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to deliver unrelated remarks at 15:00 ET 20:00 GMT. That presser is also likely to focus on tariffs. * According to CNN, Trump called the ruling "a disgrace" while hosting the White House breakfast with governors this morning, according to two people familiar with his comments. He told those gathered that he has a 'backup plan'. * House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said in a statement on X, "No one can deny that the President's use of tariffs has brought in billions of dollars and created immense leverage for America's trade strategy and for securing strong, reciprocal America-first trade agreements with countries that had been taking advantage of American workers for decades. Congress and the Administration will determine the best path forward in the coming weeks." * Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) said in an earlier statement, "This betrayal must be reversed and Republicans must get to work immediately on a reconciliation bill to codify the tariffs that had made our country the hottest country on earth!" * As noted on bullets earlier, there is highly unlikely to be sufficient Republican support in either the House or the Senate to codify Trump's tariffs. SEE: TARIFFS: Industry Bodies Warn Increased Uncertainty After SCOTUS Tariff Ruling: https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/industry-bodies-warn-increased-uncertaint y-after-scotus-tariff-ruling-1771603436693

Feb-20 17:44

Click here to see next week's key LatAm data releases and events, along with our latest macro insights: https://mni.marketnews.com/3ZMC3AM * Primary attention across LatAm next week will be on mid-month inflation data from both Mexico and Brazil, critical inputs into the upcoming central bank policy decisions in March. * Elsewhere, December economic activity data in both Mexico and Argentina are scheduled, as well as Peru fourth-quarter GDP. * Separately, the regional responses to the latest SCOTUS tariff ruling will be eagerly awaited amid industry bodies warning of increased uncertainty ahead.

Feb-20 17:11

Press Sec Leavitt announces via X.com that "Pesident Trump will hold a press briefing on the Supreme Court's tariff decision at 12:45PM ET". * Any description of the administration's new tariff strategy after IEEPA was struck down this morning will be the focus.

Feb-20 17:02

Central Bank

The NBH is expected to cut the base rate by 25bps to 6.25% - the first cut since September 2024.

February 20, 2026 15:25

The BCRP is widely expected to leave its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 4.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting.

February 11, 2026 20:03

The CBR is expected to keep the key rate unchanged at 16%, though sell-side consensus is far from unanimous.

February 11, 2026 10:39

The MPC has a lot to digest, keeping them on hold today.

February 06, 2026 02:02

Market Analysis

Mexico and Brazil Mid-Month CPI, Banxico QIR

Feb-20 16:51

The NBH is expected to cut rates for the first time since Nov'2024. South Africa's FinMin presents the annual budget.

Feb-20 15:51

South Africa CPI inflation data for January provides the highlight across the CEEMEA region next week.

Feb-13 17:34

The major data releases and events scheduled across LatAm next week.

Feb-13 17:32

Political Risk

MNI's Political Risk team outlines the major political events scheduled throughout the year in 2026

December 31, 2025 14:42

We look at ten big takeaways from the Budget. Increasing taxes and energy bills into an election looks questionable

November 28, 2025 13:07

The UK Budget s the biggest domestic event of 2025. We answer main questions, outline potential measures and impacts.

November 21, 2025 17:00

Speaking to the presidents of the political groups in the Senate on 5 November, PM Sebastien Lecornu said a vote of censure against the gov't or a defeat of the 2026 budget in parliament "will amount to dissolution", and that he "will not be the Prime Minister who makes a handover of power with [far-right National Rally President] Jordan Bardella". * Le Parisien reports : https://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sebastien-lecornu-assure-quil-ne-sera-pas -le-premier-ministre-qui-fera-une-passation-de-pouvoir-avec-jordan-bardella-0 6-11-2025-EUEWSHOWCNHC5BRRYG4ZYMIKCA.phpthat Lecornu said, "I don't want to use Article 49.3, I don't want executive orders". As part of his return to the Matignon, Lecornu foreswore the use of Art. 49.3 to push through the budget without a vote in parliament. * His comment on 'executive orders' may refer to Art. 47 of the Constitution. Under this, if the finance bills are not passed within 70 days of submission, they can be implemented via ordinance. The 14 October submission sets a 23 Dec deadline. * Majority approval for the budget remains extremely uncertain. The left scored a notable win on 5 Nov, securing an increase in the generalised social contribution (CSG): https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/budget-de-la-secu-l-assemblee- nationale-adopte-une-hausse-de-csg-sur-les-revenus-du-capital_AD-202511050966 .html, which it intends to pay for the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. * The amendment passed with the backing of leftist deputies, as well as a sizeable number of lawmakers from the centrist pro-Macron parties. * However, conservatives have objected with Les Republicains leader Bruno Retailleau calling it an "organised tax heist", Horizons leader and 2027 presidential candidate Edouard Philippe saying the measure was "fiscal madness", and prominent LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand saying parliament was "a madhouse".

November 06, 2025 13:01

Election Previews

PM Takaichi looks to secure a majority for the LDP in 8 Feb election to ease passage of her fiscal stimulus agenda

Feb-05 15:36

Election sets up a 3-way contest between progressives, populists, and conservatives that will influence policy direction

Feb-04 16:51

First round election on 16 November could set up another far-left vs. far-right contest for the presidency

Nov-13 13:03

Centrist parties look set to make gains at expense of populists, lengthy coalition negotiations expected after election.

Oct-28 16:17