KRW: Further Measures/Meetings To Support The Won

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• Bank Indonesia (BI) announces its rates decision on Wednesday 19 November and could hold or ease as it has reasons for both. Bloomberg consensus is expecting it to be on hold with only 5/30 forecasting 25bp of easing but recently BI has gone against majority expectations.
• If BI holds in November, it is likely to reiterate that it is “monitoring the transmission effectiveness of accommodative monetary policy” and that it would like to see lower lending rates and an improvement in lending growth to support economic activity (it is forecasting 2026 loan growth of 8-12%).
• USDIDR has trended higher over November and BI has intervened to stall the move. However, at around 16762, it is up a percent since the 22 October decision.
• It could still cut in December, if the rupiah has stabilised and the Fed eases too. 

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1598 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

Resistance to watch in EURUSD is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and continues to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 129.10 50-day EMA        
• PRICE: 128.75 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: 128.50 Low Nov 17      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A bear theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.