KRW: Further Measures/Meetings To Support The Won
Spot USD/KRW is a little higher so far today, last 1477/78, up 0.20%, but it remains under yesterday's fresh highs of 1482.25. Dec lows rest at 1463.65. Local equities continue to struggle, while a further $200mn in net outflows from offshore investors has been seen today. Below we highlight some of the further measures/meetings the authorities are enacting to aid won sentiment/flows.
- Via the Korea Economic Daily: "South Korea’s presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom will hold an emergency meeting with 7 conglomerates on Thursday to discuss FX issues, Korea Economic Daily reports, citing unidentified people in presidential office". (via BBG). The aim of this meeting is likely to be to encourage fresh exporter conversion into the won.
- The "South Korea eased FX rules to boost onshore dollar liquidity as the government intensifies efforts to stabilize the won, according to an emailed statement." via BBG). See this link for more details. These measures look to be designed to encourage capital inflows into South Korea.
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INDONESIA: MNI BI Preview-Nov 2025: BI Could Hold To Wait & See
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- Bank Indonesia (BI) announces its rates decision on Wednesday 19 November and could hold or ease as it has reasons for both. Bloomberg consensus is expecting it to be on hold with only 5/30 forecasting 25bp of easing but recently BI has gone against majority expectations.
- If BI holds in November, it is likely to reiterate that it is “monitoring the transmission effectiveness of accommodative monetary policy” and that it would like to see lower lending rates and an improvement in lending growth to support economic activity (it is forecasting 2026 loan growth of 8-12%).
- USDIDR has trended higher over November and BI has intervened to stall the move. However, at around 16762, it is up a percent since the 22 October decision.
- It could still cut in December, if the rupiah has stabilised and the Fed eases too.
EURUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
- RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.1598 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
Resistance to watch in EURUSD is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and continues to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28
- RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 129.10 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.75 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 128.50 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
- SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support
A bear theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, last Thursday’s high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
