US-RUSSIA: RTRS-White House: No Decision From Trump On New Russia Sanctions

• 10,300 TYZ5 113/TYF6 113.5 call spds, 18 net/Jan over vs. 112-25/0.03%

OAT/Bunds 0.5bp wider at 74bp after registering a multi-month low of ~71.5bp on Thursday.

• Softer European equities and risks to PM Lecornu’s deficit target (4.7%) present widening impulses as National Assembly discussions on the revenue side of the Budget resume this week.
• Passage of the Budget presents the clearest risk to the 70bp mark in the coming weeks, although ongoing structural fiscal issues and political risks continue to limit the scope for spread tightening and promote a degree of caution within the sell-side (only modest scope for spread tightening noted across sell-side notes we have read).
• Goldman Sachs: The market will put more weight on near-term political stability than on the more medium-term cost of the pension freeze, which, given the risks already embedded in OATs, is the right judgement in our view. That said, while recent news is constructive, we note that the budget process is still uncertain, with votes on other parts of the bill to come and the 2026 deficit bottom line still unclear. We thus expect some volatility in the spread in coming weeks but maintain our 70bp forecast for 10-Year OAT/Bund by year-end.
• J.P.Morgan: Despite our base case of the 2026 budget getting eventually approved with no government crisis, we find no political risk premia priced in current level of French spreads as quite optimistic. At the same time, we do not find outright underweights in France attractive as under our base case of French budget approval we do expect 10-Year France-Germany to settle around 70bp, close to current levels.  We have been partly hedging our overweight carry exposure with underweights in France to partly express our cautious stance on France and partly to hedge carry exposure against risk-offs coming from global factors.
• Societe Generale: Our view on France remains broadly unchanged from September. The challenge lies in timing, given political unpredictability. We expect stable to wider spreads next year, depending on how political stress evolve. Attention will shift to the 2027 presidential elections from 2H26

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger 
• RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12 
• RES 1: 6804.35 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 6750.00 @ 14:35 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 6670.50 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 2: 6655.50 Low Nov 7 & key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest selloff appears corrective - for now. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 6730.32, has been pierced, however, price is once again trading above the average. The  next key support to watch is 6655.50, the Nov 7 low. Friday’s price pattern is a doji candle - a reversal signal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6900.50, the Nov 12 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.