MNI POLITICAL RISK - Turkey Braced for Key Court Ruling

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Executive summary:

• On Monday, September 15, the Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance will decide whether to overturn the CHP's congress in 2023, which would see chairman Ozgur Ozel ousted.
• The constitution assigns the authority to oversee elections, including party congresses, to the Supreme Election Board, which has already endorsed Ozel’s leadership.
• However, the Ankara court could still annul the congress on procedural grounds, which many legal experts deem unconstitutional.

Turkish markets are bracing for the most significant court ruling in a series of cases over alleged irregularities and corruption since the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) victory in last year’s local elections. If the Ankara court rules against the CHP, as most expect it to, Ozgur Ozel would be stripped of the party chairmanship. The court could then name a trustee to run the party or reinstate former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The court could also dismiss the case or postpone any ruling for further review to await the outcome of a separate court case on the congress, which has a hearing set for November 4.

Given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already defeated Kilicdaroglu in the 2023 elections, his reinstatement amid a waning popularity could lead to in-fighting within CHP ranks. Kilicdaroglu has previously said that he’s willing to return to the post if a court invalidates the vote that removed him. But Ozel warned that his return would be a “historic mistake.”