EU: LatAm - Brazil Pres: No Mercosur FTA 'In My Presidency' If EU Delays Further
Reuters reports comments from Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, stating that "If we do not finalise the EU-Mercosur trade deal right now, Brazil will not sign it as long as I am president." He adds that "We gave in on everything we could; if the EU doesn't approve the trade agreement now, we will be tough on them." Should Lula maintain his stance into 2026, especially if he wins re-election in the autumn, it could scupper the chances of any EU-Mercosur deal until 2030.
- Addressing the Italian Parliament earlier today, PM Giorgia Meloni said that the planned signing of the deal - 20 years in the making - this weekend was "premature".
- Meloni: "It is necessary to wait for the package of additional measures to protect the agricultural sector to be finalised, explained and discussed with our farmers. This does not mean that Italy intends to block or oppose (the deal)...I am very confident that with the beginning of the new year, all these conditions can be met.”
- EU ambassadors had been due to vote on Friday, 19 December, on the 'reciprocity clause', intended to ensure agricultural exports from Mercosur countries meet EU standards. Approval would have set up a signing ceremony in Brazil on Saturday, 20 December.
- France, Hungary, Poland, and Austria are all opposed, and should Italy withhold its support, this would deny the required qualified majority in the Council vote.
- Anti-deal MEPs have already threatened a judicial review, potentially pushing implementation until 2028 at the earliest.
- European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that approving the FTA "is a matter of the credibility and predictability of the EU". Šefčovič: “If we cannot take such an important decision on this type of deal, then I can imagine that it could sow doubt in our negotiating partners’ minds”.
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US: Trump Intensifies Pressure On Indiana GOP As Dems Eye Redistricting Edge
US President Donald Trump has reiterated a threat to support primary election challenges against Indiana Republicans who vote against drawing a new congressional map for the state that will be beneficial to the GOP in 2026. A new Indiana map could net the GOP two additional seats in 2026. If the move is blocked by the state legislature, it could hand the initiative to a Democratic counter-move in Virginia.
- Trump wrote,” I will be strongly endorsing against any State Senator or House member from [Indiana] that votes against the Republican Party, and our Nation, by not allowing for Redistricting for Congressional seats...”
- Trump’s comments come as a pair of favourable redistricting efforts in California and Utah threaten to tip the scales in favour of Democrats, after the GOP initiated a partisan redistricting struggle with an aggressively drawn Texas map.
- The New York Times noted last week, “Republicans have had an advantage in this year’s redistricting wars because they control the redistricting process in states with more Democratic-held congressional seats. But this advantage is starting to look shaky — shaky enough that it’s possible to imagine how Democrats could fight the redistricting wars to a draw ahead of the 2026 midterms, and perhaps even win them by the 2028 election.”
- According to Polymarket, Democrats have a 71% implied probability of flipping control of the House in 2026. That number is likely to rise if Indiana Republicans refuse to submit to a new map.
Source: Washington Post
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.492 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.492 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
