ASIA FX: Mixed SEA FX Trends, USD/THB Near Lows Despite BoT Rhetoric
In South East Asia FX, trends have been mixed, with THB and PHP edging higher, while IDR and SGD have lost ground. For USD/INR we have started today's session quieter than yesterday (when USD/INR plunged on RBI led intervention), with USD/INR spot near 90.20 currently, off around 0.20% on end Wednesday levels (lows from yesterday were just under 90.10).
- THB remains in focus as the BoT and authorities continue to argue for a weaker currency and look to break the link between gold gains and THB. Still, USD/THD remains wedged under 31.45 at this stage, which is still close to recent multi year lows (31.41). The BoT Governor stated that low growth is the new norm for Thailand and while further easing can be provided the central bank is mindful of limited policy space.
- USD/PHP is comfortably back under 59.00 as year end approaches. We were last 58.60/65, up around 0.20% in PHP terms so far today. We are currently around the 50-day EMA support point. Earlier in Dec we got under this support level (hitting lows of 58.365), but the dip wasn't sustained. Better seasonal due to remittance inflows ahead of year end may be in play for recent PHP gains.
- USD/IDR spot has rise a little last back above 16720. This is fresh highs back to late Nov. Weaker global equity market sentiment is a likely headwind, while USD demand may also be coming in ahead of year end. All key EMAs are trending higher. Yesterday the BI kept rates on hold. The decision was primarily driven by the need to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar amid high global economic uncertainty.
- USD/MYR maintains a downside bias, last under 4.0870, but is down a touch so far today. The pair is also oversold per RSI (14).
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JGBS: Twist-Steepener, 2/30 YC Back Near Highs, PM/BOJ Meeting Due
JGB futures have clawed back to unchanged versus settlement levels.
- With the local calendar light, the domestic market, out to the futures-linked 7-year, has benefited from general global risk-off sentiment.
- "Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday as she mulls support for an economy that shrank over the summer. The two will meet at 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, according to the prime minister's office. - BBG
- Cash US tsys are 2-3bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session.
- JGBs have twist-steepened in today's session, with cash JGBs 1bp richer to 7bps cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 20-year yield is 3.6bps higher at 2.786% after setting a fresh cycle high of 2.816% ahead of tomorrow's supply.
- "A "sell Japan" trend is likely to persist across equities, bonds and the yen unless Tokyo de-escalates its ongoing diplomatic spat with China, according to Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco." – BBG
- Today’s move also places the 2/30 curve within striking distance of its recent high. (see chart)
- Swaps have twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 4bps higher.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance and Core Machine Orders data.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
GOLD: Weaker, Eyeing Sub $4000, Risk Off Doesn't Aid Sentiment
Gold is back close to $4010, off a further 0.90% so far today. the risk off evident in the crypto space and in equity markets has done little to aid gold safe haven related demand. Some offset is coming from a higher USD (albeit with mixed trends today, higher against higher beta plays, but safe havens, JPY and CHF are rising), as Fed easing expectations remain uncertain. A break under $4000 could bring the 50-day EMA support point into play, which comes in at $3927.5. Initial resistance is at $4264.7.
- FOMC members appear split between believing further easing is needed to restart the labour market and holding as inflation remains above target. The Fed’s Waller noted earlier today that the focus should be on jobs data and not inflation and that the fiscal position is not sustainable.
- US real 10yr yields remain elevated compared to recent history, last at 1.85% (recent lows were under 1.70%).
- Structural support for gold still appears evident from an asset allocation standpoint. Via BBG: "China added an estimated 15 tons of gold to its forex reserves in September as central banks accelerated their purchases of bullion after a seasonal summer lull, according to Goldman Sachs Group."
US TSYS: Risk-Off Pushes Yields Lower
TYZ5 is dealing at 112-26, -0-05+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session, as risk turns down, led by Bitcoin.
- Stocks have extended Monday's weakness in today’s Asia-Pac session. Chip makers led declines yesterday, followed by financials. Investors all of a sudden appear wary of lofty tech valuations, ahead of Nvidia Corp.’s earnings and a key US jobs report later this week.
- Cash US tsys are 2-3bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
- However, JGBs have bear-steepened in today's session. "A “sell Japan” trend is likely to persist across equities, bonds and the yen unless Tokyo de-escalates its ongoing diplomatic spat with China, according to Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco." - BBG
- Tuesday's data schedule is light, with markets gearing up for the now-much-delayed September NFP print due this Thursday.
