AUSTRALIA: Neither Albanese Or Dutton Land Knockout Blow In Second Debate
The second leaders' debate ahead of the 3 May general election has concluded, with neither PM Anthony Albanese or Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton landing a knockout blow. As MNI noted yesterday (see 'AUSTRALIA: ALP Bolsters Lead In 2PPV Polling Ahead Of 16 April Leaders' Debate', 1700BST), Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) has recorded an increase in support in recent weeks that puts it in pole position to win a second three-year term in office, with Dutton's centre-right Liberal/National party coalition falling behind in the two-party-preferred-vote polls (crucial given Australia's electoral system).
- Political betting markets have shifted in line with opinion polling. On 28 March, when the election was officially called, data from Polymarket showed bettors giving Albanese a 51% implied probability of being the next PM, essentially a dead heat with Dutton. This has now shifted to a 79%-21% advantage in Albanese's favour.
- A significant portion of the debate focused on foreign policy, with both leaders asked about whether they trust US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping respectively. To both questions Albanese said he had "no reason not to", while Dutton demurred, saying he had not met them personally.
- Dutton was forced into a U-turn, acknowledging he had "made a mistake" in claiming that Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto had announced Russia would be given access to an airbase in the eastern province of Papua. Defence journal Janes had reported that Indonesia had received a request, but no statement from Prabowo was forthcoming. Albanese argued Dutton's initial accusations were “extraordinary” and said they showed he had “no understanding of the need for diplomacy”
Chart 1. Political Betting Market, Implied Probability of Next Australian PM, %
Source: Polymarket
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
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- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Mar18 $1.0745-55(E2.3bln), $1.0900-10(E678mln); Mar19 $1.0800(E1.5bln), $1.0900(E1.1bln); Mar20 $1.0900-10(E1.3bln)
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- AUD/USD: Mar18 $0.6320-30($1.5bln); Mar20 $0.6400-15(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: Mar19 C$1.4565($1.6bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
- On the commodity front, a clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and last week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal traded to a fresh all-time high and price has also pierced the psychological $3000 handle. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on $3006.9 next, a 2.236 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. Key S/T trend support has been defined at $2832.7, Feb 28 low. First support lies at $2913.9, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $69.86, the 50-day EMA.
