AUSTRALIA: ALP Bolsters Lead In 2PPV Polling Ahead Of 16 April Leaders' Debate
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) continues to poll strongly as the second leaders' debate approaches on 16 April ahead of the 3 May general election. Since hitting a recent nadir in support in February, the ALP has seen its support surge at the same time as that for the main opposition centre-right Liberal/National party coalition (L/NP) has collapsed. The ABC debate (starting 0600ET/1100BST/2000AEST) will be the first of the 'official' election period, with both the ALP and Coaliton launching their campaigns on 13 April.
- The five polls conducted since the first debate on 8 April have all shown the Coalition's primary vote down in the low-30's, compared to high-30's/low-40's in Feb, while the ALP is bolstering its position in the two-party-preferred-vote (2PPV, see chart below). The 2PPV shows the outcome of the poll once all of the preferences have been distributed.
- While 2PPV polling assumes a two-party system (which Australia is not given the presence of the left-wing Greens, right-wing One Nation Party, and independents), the surge in support for the ALP would indicate that an increasing number of respondents opting for the Greens or independents in their primary vote are selecting the ALP high up in their preferences.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, by Primary Vote (LHS) and 2-Party-Preferred-Vote (RHS), % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Essential, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic, YouGov, Newspoll, Redbridge/Accent, Freshwater Strategy, DemosAU, ANU, MNI
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
