EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: USD/JPY Spot 120min Chart
Source: MNI - MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
UK
TRADE (ECONOMIST): “On Thursday India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, will be in London to sign a trade agreement with his counterpart Sir Keir Starmer.”
EU
EU-CHINA (EURONEWS): “The expectations for the EU-China summit are so low that officials in Brussels claim as a victory the fact that it is happening at all.”
TRADE (BBG): “The European Union and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most imports, according to diplomats briefed on the negotiations.”
TARIFFS: Navarro: Take EU-US Trade Deal Reports With "Grain Of Salt"
A brief risk-off move on a comment by White House adviser Peter Navarro on Bloomberg TV referring to earlier reports of a EU-US trade deal nearing completion that would include a 15% baseline tariff - Navarro says: "We don't negotiate in public. These other countries aspirationally negotiate in public to try to get us to where they want us to go. I would say even though it was reported on Bloomberg, I would take it with a grain of salt. Never assume anything is fixed until the boss says it is fixed... Let's see what happens."
UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine's government is facing growing backlash after President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law limiting the independence of two anti-corruption agencies. Thousands demonstrated in Kyiv for a second night on Wednesday, many brandishing signs criticising the government.”
US
TARIFFS (BBG): “US President Donald Trump suggested that he would not go below 15% as he sets so-called reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, an indication that the floor for the increased levies was rising. “We’ll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. “A couple of — we have 50 because we haven’t been getting along with those countries too well.”
AI (RTRS): “The Trump administration released a new artificial intelligence blueprint on Wednesday that aims to loosen environmental rules and vastly expand AI exports to allies, in a bid to maintain the American edge over China in the critical technology.”
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to remove Jerome Powell before the end of his term risk unnecessarily driving up long-term borrowing rates, but it would be a reasonable compromise for Congress to allow a new Fed chair to take office early next year, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MNI.
HOME SALES (MNI): U.S. sales of existing homes fell 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday, below market expectations and the slowest since September. Sales year-over-year were flat.
OTHER
CANADA (MNI): British Columbia Premier David Eby on Wednesday suggested he's willing to support a pipeline transporting Alberta oil through his province if an investor emerges to build it, softening his past objections.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian provincial leaders voiced support Wednesday for retaliation if President Donald Trump imposes 35% tariffs, evidence they agree with Prime Minister Mark Carney's view that chances for a deal by Trump's Aug. 1 deadline are slipping away.
CHINA
MNI BRIEF : China-EU Top Leaders Meet In Beijing - Ministry. China’s President Xi has met with President António Costa of the European Council and President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission on Thursday, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, an announcement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.
YUAN (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “The strength of the yuan against the dollar this year is the result of a combination of internal and external factors, and the Chinese currency is expected to maintain its resilience, Shanghai Securities News reported, citing analysts.”
MNI China Press Digest July 24: Stable Coins, Banks, Elderly
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY119.5 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY331 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY119.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY450.5 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1385 Thurs; +1.20% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1385 on Thursday, compared with 7.1414 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1516 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
UK BRC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JULY -33; JUNE -28
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL JULY FLASH COMPOSITE PMI 53.6; JUNE 51.6
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL JULY FLASH SERVICES PMI 53.8; JUNE 51.8
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL JULY FLASH MFG PMI 51.6; JUNE 50.6
JAPAN S&P GLOBAL JAPAN PMI COMPOSITE JULY P 51.5; JUNE 51.5
JAPAN S&P GLOBAL PMI MFG JULY 48.8; JUNE 50.1
JAPAN S&P GLOBAL PMI SERVICES JULY 53.5; JUNE 51.7
SOUTH KOREA Q2 GDP +0.6% Q/Q; EST. +0.5%; Q1 -0.2%
SOUTH KOREA Q2 GDP +0.5% Y/Y; EST. +0.4%; Q1 0.0%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Edge Higher
The TYU5 range has been 110-30 to 111-02 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-31+, down 0-01 from the previous close.
Fig 1: Fixed Income Assets With Yields Above 4%
Source: MNI/BlackRock
JGBS: Twist-Flattener, Tokyo CPI Tomorrow
JGB futures are slightly weaker and off session lows, -11 compared to settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper & Near Session Lows After RBA Gov Discusses Mon Pol
ACGBs (YM -7.5 & XM -6.5) are weaker and hovering just above lows.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Cheaper With A Mixed Performance Versus $-Bloc 10Y
NZGBs closed 3-4bps cheaper, with the NZ-US 10-year yield differential 2bps wider and the NZ-AU 2bps tighter.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Trades Poorly
The BBDXY has had a range of 1191.55 - 1193.53 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1192, -0.10%. The USD again slipped lower overnight, and this time in the face of US yields moving higher. The market is much more comfortable selling USD’s, while below 1220 rallies should continue to find supply. The price action for the USD is really beginning to stink and you can see why most of the market wants to express a short. There is lots of event risk coming up next week and we are heading into month-end so caution is warranted.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 120min Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA FX: USD Biased Weaker In SEA, PHP Outperforms
In South East Asia FX markets, the bias is for weaker USD levels. PHP is the best performer so far today, up around 0.40% in spot terms. Elsewhere, gains are modest, in the 0.15-0.25% range.
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Has A Look Below 146.00 Testing First Support
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 145.86 - 146.51, Asia is currently trading around 146.00, -0.36%. USD/JPY continues to frustrate the market and has given back a lot of its recent gains which saw a big portion of the JPY longs capitulate. The move lower in USD/JPY might have a few traders scratching their heads but for the moment the USD seems to be floundering in all scenarios. The CFTC data showed the market is shifting its view on the JPY, with leverage funds just starting to build JPY shorts and Asset managers actively reducing their own. We are probing the first support around 146.00 where some demand could be seen, next support is the pivotal 144.00/145.00 area.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 120min Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Has A Look Above 0.6600
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6597 - 0.6618 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6615, +0.23%.The pair extended higher once more as the USD continues to trade heavy even with US yields moving higher. The pair is now challenging the top of its recent range and a sustained move above 0.6600 could see it gain upward momentum, but there is lots of event risk coming up next week and we are heading into month-end so caution is warranted.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Extends Move Higher, Eyes 0.6100
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6042 - 0.6059 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6053, +0.12%. The pair extended higher once more as the USD continued to trade heavy even with US yields moving higher. Depending what your view is this 0.6050 area looks an attractive fade initially, the danger though is the USD which is looking sickly once more and should it capitulate the NZD could build momentum higher again. Price will need a sustained break back above the 0.6050/0.6100 area to signal a potential base might be in place. There is lots of event risk coming up next week and we are heading into month-end so caution is warranted.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Most Markets Higher, Japan Still Outperforming
Regional Asia Pac equities are mostly tracking higher so far in Thursday trade, although continued outperformance from Japan stocks remain a highlight. These moves follow broad based cash gains in Wednesday US trade. US futures are up modestly so far, led by the tech side, while EU equity futures are showing a +1.3% gain at this stage. Positive tones around US-EU and US-China trade talks has aided broader sentiment over the past 24 hours (in the aftermath of the 15% tariff deal with Japan).
OIL: WTI Finds Demand Sub $65.00 On US Crude Stock Drawdown
The overnight range for the CLU5(WTI) contract was $64.71 - $65.52, it is currently trading around $65.55 in the Asia-Pac session, +0.48%. WTI found some demand below $65.00 but continues to consolidate within its recent $63 - $68 range. Oil prices continued to range trade and did not find support from the US-Japan deal during European trading as they trended lower. The larger-than-expected US crude stock drawdown though helped them to find a trough and they recovered to finish slightly higher on the day. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.17 million barrels, the EIA said.
Fig 1: WTI Crude Future Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
GOLD: Holding Lower After Wednesday's Dip, Safe Haven Flows Weighed By Equities
Gold prices are holding slightly weaker in the first part of Thursday trade. We were last near $3383.5/oz. This is off recent highs near $3439/oz. We have seen a generally positive tone to regional equity markets so far today, with Japan continuing to outperform. US equity futures are also a touch higher, led by Nasdaq futures. As we saw on Wednesday, the global equity bounce is reducing safe haven flows, which may be weighing on bullion demand. So far today, the generally softer tone for the USD is not providing positive impetus to gold prices, with reduced safe haven flows outweighing at this stage.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 24/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | * | GFK Consumer Climate | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | Manufacturing Sentiment | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | PPI | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global Services PMI flash | |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global Composite PMI flash | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | CBI Industrial Trends | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** | Turkey Benchmark Rate | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Deposit Rate | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Main Refi Rate | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Marginal Lending Rate | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Retail Trade | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Retail Trade | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1245/1445 | ECB Press Conference | ||
| 24/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | New Home Sales | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | New Home Sales | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note | |
| 25/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence | |
| 25/07/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | Tokyo CPI | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | PPI | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | Consumer Sentiment | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | M3 | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | IFO Business Climate Index | |
| 25/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 25/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 25/07/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** | BNB Business Confidence |