EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: $-Bloc Market Rate Expectations

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UK
FUEL (BBG): “Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband urged petrol retailers and energy suppliers to show restraint on price hikes as the UK’s Labour government tries to show voters it is taking action to limit economic pain resulting from the Iran war.”
EU
ITALY (MNI BRIEF): Central bank money must remain the core settlement asset of the financial system even as new technologies such as tokenised deposits and stablecoins reshape cross-border payments, Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said Thursday, arguing that innovation should develop within a resilient two-tier monetary system anchored by public money.
RUSSIA/OIL (BBG): “The US has issued its second authorization for buyers to take Russian oil cargoes already at sea, a move intended to ease growing pressure on prices as the war in the Middle East continues.”
RUSSIA (BBG): “Russian intelligence support for Iran’s deadly retaliation against the US, Israel and Gulf allies — as well as concerns China may also be helping Tehran — demonstrates deepening ties among US adversaries as the war with Iran continues to widen.”
POLAND (BBG): “Polish President Karol Nawrocki said he won’t sign a legislation designed to give his country a quick access to €43.7 billion ($50.3 billion) from the European Union’s loans-for-weapons program in a blow to pro-EU government.”
US
FED (MNI): U.S. bank regulators will propose modestly looser capital requirements in coming weeks, Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman said Thursday, after intense industry pushback forced the Federal Reserve to significantly scale back its Basel Endgame proposal and G-SIB surcharge reform.
IRAN (AP): " Iran’s secretive new leader issued his first public statements Thursday, resolving to keep fighting, promising more pain for Gulf Arab states and threatening to open “other fronts” in a war that has already disrupted world energy supplies, the global economy and international travel. Early Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat online to Iran, writing: “Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today.” Trump tallied the damage inflicted on Iran and its leaders and called it a “great honor” to be responsible for it."
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve looks set to keep interest rates on hold for now as officials seek evidence that U.S. inflation is back on a downward trend and try to gauge the effects of war in the Middle East, former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan told MNI.
TRADE (CNBC): “The U.S. on Thursday launched new trade investigations into 60 economies to determine whether they failed to curb imports of goods made with forced labor, a day after it initiated unfair trade practices probe into 16 trading partners.”
JAPAN
BOJ (MNI POLICY): MNI discusses the BoJ’s renewed focus on price pressures. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
FX (BBG): "Japanese financial authorities are staying in closer contact with their US counterparts than usual as the yen trades near the weakest levels this year against a backdrop of widespread market volatility in response to the conflict in Iran."
OTHER
OIL (BBG): “President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader both struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the war, offering little relief to energy markets despite fresh US efforts to curb oil prices.”
OIL (BBG): “Brent oil traded near $100 a barrel following one of the most volatile trading weeks ever, with investors bracing for more upheaval as Iran pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.”
INDIA (BBG): “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he discussed the “serious situation in the region” with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as New Delhi looks for ways to secure the safe passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.”
CHINA
PBOC (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): Monetary policy operations will place greater emphasis on discretionary decision-making in the future, with cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates adjusted flexibly and appropriately in response to economic conditions and changes in the international environment, Shanghai Securities News reported citing Liu Shangxi, vice president of the China Society of Macroeconomics.
CHINA/US (BBG): "The framework for US President Donald Trump’s summit with China’s Xi Jinping is set to be hashed out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan."
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY7.3 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY37.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY7.3 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY44.8 today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 6.9007 Fri; +5.17% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 6.9007 on Friday, compared with 6.8959 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 6.8886 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND BUSINESSNZ MANUFATCURING PMI 55.0; PRIOR 55.1
NEW ZEALAND JAN NET MIGRATION 4460; PRIOR 3600
SOUTH KOREA JAN MONEY SUPPLY M/M 0.7%; PRIOR 0.5%
MARKETS
US TSYS: 10-Yr Yields Eye 4.30% as Data Releases Ignored
A familiar theme played out each day this week for USTs trading in Asia. Modest decline in yields during the morning session - as investors took profit on overnight positions and locked in the rise in yields - followed by a resumption of higher yields in the afternoon.
The momentum for higher yields is strong. The US 10-Yr is higher on the week by +12.2bps - easily trading through 4.20%. Barring a sea change in the Iran war - there appears no barrier to the 10-Yr reaching 4.30% in the short term as the inflationary pressures intensify.
US treasury futures are up modestly Friday with the 10-Yr at 111-16+ for gains of +03+ (-0-29+ for the week)
Looking ahead to Friday: Decent amount of data though investors focus will likely remain on Oil
JGBS: Bear-Steepener, Oil Remains The Main Focus
JGB futures are sharply weaker and at session lows, -45 compared to settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Stronger As Early Losses Reversed
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.5) are slightly stronger, reversing early weakness driven by overnight losses for US tsys.

Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Flattener To End A Heavy Week
NZGBs closed showing a bear-flattener, with benchmark yields flat to 5bps higher.

Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Looking To Challenge 1213-1215 Resistance
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1207.45 - 1209.93 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1210, +0.12%. The BBDXY had another leg up as risk-aversion begins to expand, though it remains in its recent range. The stock market is beginning to take off its rose tinted glasses and the gravity of the situation is beginning to take its toll. I am not very optimistic going forward and the longer this conflict plays out the more the headwinds for risk will grow. On the day, I suspect dips back toward 1203.50-1205.50 will now be supported as the market looks to test the top-end of the range toward 1213-1215. A sustained break above 1215 is needed to signal a potential deeper pullback toward the pivotal 1230-1235 area.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY-Looks To Challenge 160-162, Potentially Bringing Rate Hike Forward
The USD/JPY range today has been 159.01-159.43 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 159.40. The pair had a brief dip as officials Jaw-Boning got louder but dips continue to be well supported and is now looking to challenge the all important 160-162 area. The jaw-boning by officials is probably set to intensify but personally with the USD so bid and risk struggling I think the BOJ/MOF are in a tough place, who wants to sell USD’s into a market that is looking for them. Hiroshi Inoue’s article below raises the possibility of a rate hike next week as an alternative. This is similar to the conundrum the SNB had intervening in EUR/CHF by offering an unlimited bid in EUR when the whole world was selling. So for now, I suspect they hold off until this market has calmed down and the demand for USD’s has turned lower again. Where does this leave USD/JPY and how high can it go before they are forced to come back in ? This is a tough question because you cannot discount them coming in back above 162 but for my mind I suspect it could be a lot higher than most expect given the current back drop, but it does increase the chances of them moving on rates. On the day, the first support is back toward 158.50-158.80 and then the 157.50 area.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Pulls Back Below 0.7100 As Risk Aversion Grows
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.7061-0.7092 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.7070, -0.10%. The AUD could not hold above the 0.7100 area as it stalled toward 0.7150 and when US stocks got hit overnight the pair could no longer shrug off the backdrop for risk and quickly fell lower. The AUD is being caught between those wanting to be long as rate hikes are brought forward and those looking for a proxy for risk. Ultimately the price remains within this 0.6900-0.7200 range as the conflict continues for now and while above the pivotal 0.6900-0.6950 area the bulls hold the slight edge, but the market is already long so will be hoping for risk to stablise. On the day, this price action is tough to trade with conviction but I suspect with risk back under pressure and the inability to hold above 0.7100 will probably see any bounce back toward 0.7110-0.7140 faded initially.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Looking To Challenge Pivotal 0.5800-0.5850 Support
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5836-0.5862 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.5836, -0.30%. Risk aversion seems to be building now and the NZD fell away very quickly in the New York session when US stocks turned lower. The USD is bouncing in this scenario and the NZD is now pressing the lows of its recent messy 0.5840-0.6020 range. The NZD has traded with a heavy bias consistently throughout this conflict and a sustained break below 0.5800-0.5850 could potentially see the move begin to accelerate. On the day, I suspect sellers could return back toward the 0.5890-0.5920 area and then toward 0.6000, looking for the pair to challenge lower at some point.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: AI Tech vs $100 Oil Key to Asia's Next Move for Stocks
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a violent risk-off rotation, with oil-dependent economies like Japan and India bearing the brunt of the selling in equities.
The Nikkei 225 suffered its third-largest point drop in history on Monday -2,800 points as investors dumped Automakers and Tech as the weak Yen + high oil combination threatened to crush corporate margins. Defense stocks and financial institutions with trading Houses were the only positive areas. This sees the NKY back below 54,000 and down over 8% month to date.
India’s VIX spiked over 20% this week as the Nifty 50 broke below its 200-day moving average. Auto and FMCG sectors were hammered on fears that $100 oil would lead to immediate fuel price hikes, denting rural and urban discretionary spending. A spike in bond yields put pressure on banks given expected mark-to-market losses on their government bond holdings.
Chinese markets were the most resilient this week, partly because China is less reliant on oil imports for its energy, making it less physically sensitive to the Hormuz blockade than Japan or Korea. Beijing officially set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5.0%, whilst the government signaled a reluctance to deploy large-scale stimulus, maintaining a budget deficit target around 3%–4% of GDP. Key bourses are mixed this week though both gains and losses were modest, outperforming their regional peers.
Korea's KOSPI is down, though losses capped due to their flagship AI names. The KOSPI is down around -1.8% for the week with SK Hynix flat and Samsung down just -0.7%
Oil in Standoff Between Reserve Release and Hormuz Closure
GOLD: Gold Gains Capped by USD, Tight Ranges to Remain

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK Trade Balance | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK Short-Term Activity Indicators | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK Short-Term Activity Indicators | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK Short-Term Activity Indicators | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK Short-Term Activity Indicators | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0700/0800 | * | Wholesale Prices | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** | HICP (f) | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0800/0900 | *** | HICP (f) | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0900/1000 | * | Industrial Production | |
| 13/03/2026 | 0930/0930 | BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey | ||
| 13/03/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Industrial Production | |
| 13/03/2026 | - | *** | New Loans | |
| 13/03/2026 | - | *** | Money Supply | |
| 13/03/2026 | - | *** | Social Financing | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | * | Intl Investment Position | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP / PCE Quarterly | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP / PCE Quarterly | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1400/1000 | *** | UMich Surveys of Consumers | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1400/1000 | *** | UMich Surveys of Consumers | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 13/03/2026 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |