EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Japan Real Wages Back Into Positive Territory For July

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
EU
ECB (BBG): "The European Central Bank is done lowering interest rates, with fresh projections set to confirm inflation will hold at target over the medium term, a Bloomberg survey showed. Respondents expect the deposit rate to remain at 2% through at least the end of next year. About a quarter even anticipate one or more increases between June and December 2026.
DEFENCE (MNI BRIEF): The EU's EUR150bn defence loan facility has now been fully subscribed by EU member states, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted in a statement Thursday following the 'Coalition of the Willing' summit in Paris.
FRANCE (BBG): “French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said he doesn’t regret calling a confidence vote putting his government on the line, as France is “burdened with debt” and the political parties must “each take responsibility.”
UKRAINE (BBG): “European leaders forged ahead with pledges to provide Ukraine with security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire even as little clarity emerged over concrete commitments from US President Donald Trump.”
RUSSIA (RTRS): "Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday he had ordered the government to present a programme for the development of rare earth metals no later than November. Putin made the comments in his opening remarks at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok."
US
TECH (BBG): “Broadcom Inc. Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan told investors that the chipmaker’s artificial intelligence outlook will improve “significantly” in fiscal 2026, helping allay concerns about slowing growth.”
TECH (BBG): "Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg and Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook joined tech industry leaders in touting their pledges to boost spending in the US on artificial intelligence during a dinner hosted by President Donald Trump that highlighted his deepening relationship with Silicon Valley."
JOBS (MNI BRIEF): Private-sector hiring saw a "noticeable deceleration" in August to 54,000 from 106,000 a month earlier and firms are cutting back employee hours, a possible leading indicator of further labor market weakness, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said Thursday.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday he still has not yet made up his mind on whether to support cutting interest rates in September, and is still balancing out growing concern about the labor markets with lingering worries about persistent inflation.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday downward revisions to payroll employment are hard to interpret because they are happening at the same time as immigration restrictions, and he will take the upcoming August payroll figures with a grain or salt, focusing more closely instead on the jobless rate.
FED (MNI BRIEF): New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said Federal Reserve independence is critically important, pointing to recent examples of countries that lost monetary independence and experienced disastrous outcomes.
FED (MNI): It will become appropriate to lower U.S. interest rates to a "more neutral setting over time" as the labor market is gradually cooling to pre-pandemic levels and inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target, New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday.
SERVICES (MNI INTERVIEW): U.S. service sector growth will get a boost from expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts starting this month, which should help counter fading demand from firms that had been stockpiling ahead of the implementation of new tariffs, Institute for Supply Management services chair Steve Miller told MNI Thursday.
TRADE (WSJ): “The U.S. is preparing to start renegotiating its largest free trade deal -- the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Within the next month, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative office will begin public consultations on renegotiating the deal, which it must do by Oct. 4 under the 2020 law that implemented the trade deal.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The inflation-adjusted real wage, a key gauge of households’ purchasing power, turned positive in July for the first time since December 2024, rising 0.5% y/y after -0.8% in June, preliminary data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed Friday.
JAPAN (BBG): “Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated his intention to stay on as leader after securing the lowering of US auto tariffs, dismissing the view that implementation of the trade deal with Washington might change his mind.”
THAILAND (BBG): "Anutin Charnvirakul is poised to win a Thai parliament vote for prime minister on Friday after the conservative party politician cobbled together an unlikely alliance of royalist and pro-democracy groups to break a political deadlock."
CHINA
BANKING (MNI): Chinese advisors are increasingly calling for the creation of dedicated bad banks. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
HOUSING (SECURITIES TIMES): “Chinese cities are experimenting with novel strategies to absorb unsold housing stock, in a fresh push to clear millions of vacant units, Securities Times reported.”
HOUSING (YICAI): “New home sales in Beijing rose 6.2% m/m to 2,733 units in August after the city scrapped the limit on the number of houses purchased outside the fifth ring road and cut borrowing costs, Yicai.com reported.”
MONEY MARKET (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “China’s financial market liquidity is expected to remain “reasonably ample” despite mounting pressure, underpinned by rising fiscal expenditures and support from the PBOC, Shanghai Securities News reported.”
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY594.6 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY188.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY594.6 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY782.9 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1064 Fri; -0.38% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1064 on Friday, compared with 7.1052 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1415 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
JAPAN JULY LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y 4.1%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 3.1%
JAPAN JULY REAL CASH EARNINGS Y/Y 0.5%; MEDIAN -0.6%; PRIOR -0.8%
JAPAN JULY CASH EARNINGS - SAME SAMPLE BASE Y/Y 2.9%; MEDIAN 3.3%; PRIOR 3.4%
JAPAN JULY SCHEDULED FULL-TIME PAY SAME BASE Y/Y 2.4%; MEDIAN 2.5%; PRIOR 2.3%
JAPAN JULY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y 1.4%; MEDIAN 2.3%; PRIOR 1.3%
JAPAN JULY P LEADING INDEX 105.9; PRIOR 105.1
JAPAN JULY P COINCIDENT INDEX 113.3; PRIOR 115.9
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Drift Lower, Focus Turns To NFP
The TYZ5 range has been 112-28 to 112-31 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-31, up 0-04 from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Futures Higher, 30yr Yield Falls Further, Q2 GDP Revisions Monday
JGB futures sit close to session highs (137.94), the Sep contract last 137.88, +.25 versus settlement levels. We have traded with a positive bias for much of the session, aided by carry over from global futures gains in Thursday trade (the US 10yr future broke higher amid signs of softer labor market outcomes). This, of course, comes ahead of the US NFP print later today.
AUSSIE BONDS: Futures Steady, OIS Up In Past Week, Sentiment Readings Next Week
Aussie bond futures sit little changed in Friday dealings, with domestic news/data flow light, while the US non-farm payrolls print is in firm focus later. 10yr futures (XM) were last at 95.63, up 1bps, with earlier highs at 95.645. For the 3yr future (YM), we were at 96.50.
BONDS: NZGBS: Yields Lower Led By Back End
Benchmark NZGB yields sit lower across the curve. Losses have extended modestly as Friday trade unfolded. The back end has led the moves, with the 10yr yield off close to 2.5%, last around 4.39%. The 2yr yield is little changed, sitting near 2.95%. The 2/10s curve is flatter by around 1bps, tracking at +143.5bps currently. These moves largely mirror offshore developments from Thursday, with the US 10yr yield breaking sub 4.20%, on signs of softer labor market data. The bias so far today in US Tsy futures has been firmer.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Drifts Lower Into NFP
The BBDXY has had a range of 1204.89 - 1207.08 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1205, -0.15%. The USD was surprisingly able to shrug off the extension lower in US yields and actually ground higher overnight. Most of these gains have been retraced in today’s Asian session. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. The USD is looking comfortable for the moment above this support, tonight's NFP print will determine if that remains the case.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Drifts Back Toward148.00 Ahead Of NFP
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 148.08-148.54, Asia is currently trading around 148.20, -0.20%. USD/JPY continues to consolidate its recent gains on a 148 handle as we head into NFP. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. The price action looks pretty constructive but I would not be expecting any major extensions until the market has had a look at the NFP tonight, which given the reaction to this week's labour data could be a key driver.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Takes Back Overnight Losses
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6515 - 0.6531 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6530, +0.20%. The AUD has drifted higher, erasing its overnight losses. The AUD remains in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 with little clear long-term direction. The market will be looking towards NFP tonight to hopefully be a catalyst.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Erases Overnight Losses, Bounces Off 0.5800
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5842 - 0.5865 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5860, +0.25%. The NZD has drifted higher all session, erasing all its overnight losses as we head into NFP and moving away from its support back towards 0.5800. The NFP will be an important input as to whether this support continues to hold.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: China Ends Week with Rally
China announced more policy enhancements, this time aimed at the sporting sector. The State Council announced measures that provide loans and subsidized interest to sport companies and incentives to local / regional governments to boost sport. Companies such as Jiangsu Jinling, China Sports Industry, Jiangsu Kangliyuan Sports Tech, Sanfo Outdoor Product, China Sports Industry Group and Li Ning were up strongly, supporting the market performance today. Japan's stocks had a good end to the week also as the Trump tariff deal is signed, ending the uncertainty.
Gold Holding Near New Highs Ahead of NFP
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Manufacturing Orders | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | Foreign Trade | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | Retail Sales | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | Employment | |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EZ GDP 3rd (Regular) | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Labour Force Survey | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | Ivey PMI | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 05/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |