EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Market BoJ Pricing Outlook & USD/JPY Gains Diverging

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
CONSUMERS (RTRS): "British consumer confidence edged down in November but remained in its narrow range of the past six months, a survey showed on Friday, in contrast to other data that has shown more weakness ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget next week."
TECH (BBG): "The UK plans to open a data center campus in south Wales, with developer Vantage Data Centers spending £10 billion ($13.1 billion) for facilities near a Microsoft Corp. site. "
EU
UKRAINE (BBG): "A 28-point peace plan floated by US and Russian envoys would force Ukraine to cede large chunks of territory taken by Russia, cap the size of its military and lift sanctions on Moscow over time, acceding to many of President Vladimir Putin’s wartime demands."
EU/AUSTRALIA (BBG): "The European Union is weighing direct investments in Australian mining companies to secure supplies of critical minerals, according to the bloc’s Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic."
RUSSIA (BBG): "US sanctions that come into effect on Friday could leave nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded on the water, pushing dozens of tankers to scramble for alternative destinations in the latest overhaul of the global oil trade."
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson said Thursday she is taking a guarded approach to next month's decision on whether to keep cutting interest rates because borrowing costs are already close to neutral.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday he is uncomfortable lowering interest rates too far before seeing evidence that tariff-related inflation is transitory and is not spilling over into services.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Thursday said the financial system remains resilient, supported by strong balance sheets among households and businesses and high capital levels across the banking system, but there are risks, including the increased likelihood of outsized asset price declines.
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday warned that the weak yen could raise import costs and domestic prices, ultimately putting upward pressure on consumer prices.
JAPAN (RTRS): “Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package on Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures.”
JAPAN (BBG): “Japan issued its strongest warning yet to foreign exchange markets over sharp recent movements in the yen, with the nation’s finance minister specifically mentioning intervention as an option as she tries to push back against continued falls in the currency.”
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday said the bank is collecting data to assess the initial momentum for wage growth in fiscal 2026 and intends to use this information in policy decisions at or after the next policy-setting meeting.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s annual core consumer inflation rose to 3.0% y/y in October from 2.9% in September, in line with expectations, driven by higher prices for household durable goods, although food prices excluding perishables eased, data released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s exports rose 3.6% y/y in October, marking a second consecutive increase after September’s 4.2% gain, supported by higher shipments of semiconductors and power-generating machinery, as well as a modest pickup in automobile exports, Ministry of Finance data showed Friday.
ARGENTINA/US (WSJ): “A planned $20 billion bailout to Argentina from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup has been shelved as bankers pivot instead to a smaller, short-term loan package to support the financially distressed government, people familiar with the matter said.”
AUSTRALIA (MNI INTERVIEW): A former RBA board member shares his cash rate outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
NEW ZEALAND (MNI INTERVIEW): A former RBNZ economist shares his OCR outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
CHINA
PMI (MNI INTERVIEW): The founder of RatingDog provides insight into China's private manufacturing purchasing managers index. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
FISCAL (YICAI): “China’s general public budget spending will need to grow 12.9% year-on-year in November and December, if authorities are to meet their annual budget targets, according to Yang Yewei, chief fixed-income analyst at Guosheng Securities.”
TRADE (YICAI): “China’s e-commerce exports to Europe are expanding rapidly as sellers redirect their focus amid U.S. geopolitical tensions, according to Jiang Qing, head of an international freight-forwarding company who spoke with Yicai.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY162.2 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY375 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY162.2 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY212.8 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0875 Fri; +1.91% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.0875 on Friday, compared with 7.0905 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1190 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND OCT EXPORTS NZD 6.50BN; PRIOR 5.78BN
NEW ZEALAND OCT IMPORTS NZD 8.04BN; PRIOR 7.17BN
NEW ZEALAND OCT TRADE BALANCE NZD -1542MN; PRIOR -1384MN
AUSTRALIA NOV P S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI MANUFACTURING 51.6; PRIOR 49.7
AUSTRALIA NOV P S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI SERVICES 52.7; PRIOR 52.5
AUSTRALIA NOV P S&P GLOBAL AUSTRALIA PMI COMPOSITE 52.6; PRIOR 52.1
JAPAN OCT NATL CPI Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN OCT NATL CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN OCT NATL CPI EX FRESH FOOD, ENERGY Y/Y 3.1%; MEDIAN 3.1%; PRIOR 3.0%
JAPAN OCT TRADE BALANCE ADJUSTED -¥4.2BN; MEDIAN -¥128.9bn; PRIOR -¥302.4BN
JAPAN OCT EXPORTS Y/Y 3.6%; MEDIAN 1.1%; PRIOR 4.2%
JAPAN OCT IMPORTS Y/Y 0.7%; MEDIAN -1.0%; PRIOR 3.0%
JAPAN NOV P S&P GLOBAL PMI MANUFACTURING 48.8; PRIOR 48.2
JAPAN NOV P S&P GLOBAL PMI SERVICES 53.1; PRIOR 53.1
JAPAN NOV P S&P GLOBAL PMI COMPOSITE 52.0; PRIOR 51.5
SOUTH KOREA OCT PPI Y/Y 1.5%; PRIOR 1.2%
SOUTH KOREA NOV EXPORTS 20 DAYS Y/Y 8.2% ; PRIOR -7.8%
SOUTH KOREA NOV IMPORTS 20 DAYS Y/Y 3.7% ; PRIOR -2.3%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Treasury Yields Give Back Some of Overnight Gains
US treasury futures are all up marginally today whilst heading for a weekly gain. The US 10-Yr is at 113-00 today looking at reasonable gains for the week having closed off last Friday at 112-17. TYZ5 is back above all major moving averages, having dipped below for 10 trading days as investors views on potential rate cuts in December whipsaw around.
Cash is weaker today with yields up to +1bps higher in the front end, giving back overnight gains.
Whilst the flow of government provided data continues tonight with housing starts, building permits and new home sales the reality is that markets are deeming these releases as stale. The November preliminary PMIs however should receive more focus alongside the University of Michigan inflation and sentiment indicators. There are no major auctions scheduled at this stage with bills and 2-Yr notes the focus.
JGBS: Yields Extend Retreat From Yesterday’s Peaks
JGB futures are stronger, +25 compared to settlement levels, albeit off session highs. Nevertheless, the market has managed to unwind yesterday's explosive move to cycle lows.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Modest Rally But AU-US 10Y Diff At Highest Level Since Late 2022
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +1.0) are marginally stronger but well off session highs.

Bloomberg Finance LP
NZGBS: NZ-US 10Y Diff Sharply Wider, RBNZ Next Wednesday
NZGBs closed showing a twist-steepener, with yields 1bp lower to 3bps higher across benchmarks.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Is Consolidating Around 1225
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1225.56 - 1226.95 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1225, -0.10%. The USD has drifted lower in our session albeit still close to its recent highs. While the price remains above 1218-1220 I would be skewed toward expressing a long, looking for a retest of the 1230-1240 area at some point. On the day I suspect dips toward 1222-1224 could continue to be supported as the market tries to build a base from which to extend higher.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY - Consolidates Above 157.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 157.09 - 157.59 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 157.10, -0.20%. The pair continues to consolidate its recent gains above 157.00. The horse looks like it has bolted now though and Japanese officials would have to do something extraordinary to change the narrative. The path of least resistance is now a higher USD/JPY and I suspect any dips back toward the 154-155 area would be used as buying opportunities. I feel they will have to show some sign of fighting this toward or above 160, but given the current inputs this could potentially go a lot higher than that. It will be interesting when we get the CFTC data back as I suspect real money would only just be starting to turn back to a short Yen position.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Support Around 0.6440-0.6450 Holds for Now
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6438 - 0.6458 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6450, +0.15%. The AUD/USD has a little higher in a quiet Asian session as the market tries to digest the implications of the overnight price action in risk. This does not have a great smell and we are now sitting on some pivotal levels in global risk that if they give way will potentially signal a deeper pullback. The AUD/USD traded heavy overnight in sympathy to this backdrop and should risk actually break lower it would become vulnerable. The pair is probing its first support right here around the 0.6440-0.6450 area which has been pretty solid the last couple of months, through here and the focus will then turn to the pivotal 0.6350 support. On the day while risk remains under pressure and the AUD is capped below 0.6500-0.6525 I suspect rallies will be faded and the market will be looking to see if it can break this 0.6440-50 support properly to build for a move lower.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Drifts Back Toward 0.5600
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5581 - 0.5598 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5595, +0.15%. The NZD/USD drifted a little higher as the market tries to digest the implications of the overnight price action in global risk. This does not have a great smell and we are now sitting on some pivotal levels in global risk that if they give way will potentially signal a deeper pullback. The NZD continues to trade heavy with this backdrop having topped out back toward 0.5640 overnight. The next target is the pivotal 0.5500 area which has been very strong support the last few years. On the day I suspect while the NZD remains under 0.5630-50 the rallies will be faded as the market turns its focus toward that support.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
Asia Stocks Looking at Worst Week Since April
Major bourses were down today with the tech heavy NIKKEI and KOSPI leading the falls. The falls have seen the weakest week for major bourses since the volatility of April. With clarity on a rate cut not forthcoming in the data overnight, Asia's investors appear to be resetting their expectations for rates, weighing heavy on equities, with yields ignoring overnight leads to push higher in the Asia trading day. Despite the better than expected Nvidia results, some forecasters are now saying that the tech led rally is on shaky grounds and fundamentals are likely to reassert in the near term. With several key bourses recently at highs and P/Es at top end of estimates, a modest change in sentiment has the potential for a sizeable change in momentum.

Oil Set for Weekly Fall on Ukraine Peace Plan


UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 21/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Public Sector Finances | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | Manufacturing Sentiment | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Foro Gran Via | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | ECB Lagarde Speech at European Banking Congress | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Services PMI flash | |
| 21/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Composite PMI flash | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | Negotiated Wage Growth | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1130/1230 | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Deusto Business School | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1230/0730 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Retail Trade | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1345/0845 | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | Wholesale Trade | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | Wholesale Trade | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1540/1540 | BOE Pill in Panel at Swiss National Bank | ||
| 21/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 21/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 22/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ECB Lagarde in Roundtable at Austrian National Bank | ||
| 22/11/2025 | 1100/1200 | ECB Lagarde Keynote on Fiscal and MonPol |