EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Bloomberg container ship count 30-day average - Ship Departures To US Stabilise Around Averages

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
EU
FRANCE (BBG): “Francois Bayrou said he will negotiate directly with lawmakers next week and warned against new elections as he battles to stop France’s parliament from forcing him to resign.”
EU/RUSSIA (BBG): “The European Union is mulling introducing secondary sanctions in an effort to prevent third countries from helping Russia circumvent the bloc’s existing punitive measures against Moscow, according to people familiar with the matter.”
DEFENCE (EU DK): “On 28-29 August, the European Union’s defence ministers will meet in Copenhagen to discuss European security and defence. The discussions will focus in particular on the EU’s military support to Ukraine and Europe’s defence readiness.”
DEFENCE (DW): “Every member of NATO is now hitting the alliance's previous minimum defense spending threshold. But only Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are currently meeting the military alliance's new target.”
EU (ECONOMIST): “On Thursday Mr Macron will honour the current chancellor, Friedrich Merz, with dinner at the French presidential retreat, the Fort de Brégançon, on the Mediterranean. They dine on the eve of a joint cabinet meeting at the French port of Toulon.”
TECH (POLITICO): “French President Emmanuel Macron has told his ministers that the European Union should consider retaliatory measures against the U.S. digital sector after President Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs over tech regulation and taxes, according to a senior French government official.”
EUROPE (BBC): “Leaders from France, Germany and Poland have travelled to Moldova to show support for the country's accession to the EU and warn of Russia's "relentless" efforts to undermine that ambition.”
EU (POLITICO): “Poverty in old age will be the norm for a large chunk of Europe's population unless current retirement policies undergo deep reform, the EU's workplace pensions regulator has warned.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “Russia on Wednesday rejected the idea of European peacekeeping troops serving in Ukraine, contradicting claims earlier this year by U.S. President Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin would accept such a force as part of a peace deal.”
ENERGY (POLITICO): “It will probably take about five to seven years for Canadian liquefied natural gas to be ready to flow to Europe from an Arctic port, Canada's Energy Minister Tim Hodgson told POLITICO.”
DENMARK (BBC): “The US has told Denmark to "calm down" after the top US diplomat in Copenhagen was summoned over claims that Americans had been conducting covert operations in Greenland.”
US
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve has not yet finished the job of taming inflation and cutting interest rates now could reignite price pressures, especially at a time when the central bank’s credibility is under threat from attacks on its independence, former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker told MNI.
FED (MNI BRIEF): U.S. interest rates will need to decline toward neutral at some point as inflation verges on 2% and the labor market stays strong, and every FOMC meeting is live, New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday.
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is likely to ultimately prevail in a court challenge to President Donald Trump's effort to fire her from the central bank's board, fending off his latest attempt to control U.S. monetary policy, former Fed lawyers and legal scholars told MNI.
TECH (BBG): “Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, signaling that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in artificial intelligence spending.”
ISRAEL (POLITICO): “A Quinnipiac University survey found 60 percent of voters disapprove of the U.S. sending military aid to Israel, while 32 percent support additional aid — the highest level of opposition and lowest level of support for the U.S. military alliance with Israel in a Quinnipiac poll since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks against Israel by Hamas.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa on Thursday backed a gradual rate hike but gave no guidance on the timing, citing high uncertainty.
JAPAN/US (BBG): "Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa canceled his US visit at the last minute on Thursday, due to issues that still need to be debated at the administrative level, according to the Cabinet Office."
JAPAN (MNI POLICY): MNI discusses the BOJ's hiking strategy ahead.
SOUTH KOREA (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday for a second straight meeting, as expected, adopting a wait-and-see stance amid economic and price uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, Yonhap News Agency reported.
INDIA (BBG): “White House trade adviser Peter Navarro cranked up pressure on India to halt its purchases of Russian oil, repeating accusations that New Delhi is funding the Kremlin’s campaign in Ukraine and casting the conflict as “Modi’s war”.”
MEXICO (BBG): “The Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on China as part of its 2026 budget proposal next month, protecting the nation’s businesses from cheap imports and satisfying a longstanding demand of US President Donald Trump.”
CHINA
ECONOMY (SECURITIES DAILY): “China’s new momentum index for economic development was 136 in 2024, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year, Securities Daily reported citing data by National Bureau of Statistics.”
STOCKS (BBG): “China’s commercial banks are tightening oversight of clients using credit cards to fund stock investments as small-time investors pour in to catch the nation’s $1 trillion market rally.”
STOCKS (CSJ): " Analysts and fund managers in China are warning investors about potential short-term volatility in high-flying AI shares as some investors move away from broad index funds and into sector-specific ETFs, according to a report by China Securities Journal."
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY163.1 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY416.1 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY163.1 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY253 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1063 Thurs; -0.63% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1063 on Thursday, compared with 7.1108 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1465 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND JULY FILLED JOBS +0.2% M/M; JUNE +0.1%
NEW ZEALAND ANZ AUG. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 49.7%; JULY 47.8%
NEW ZEALAND ANZ AUG. BUSINESS OWN ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 38.7%; JULY 40.6%
AUSTRALIA Q2 BUSINESS INVESTMENT +0.2% Q/Q; EST. 0.8%; Q1 -0.2%
AUSTRALIAN FIRMS PLAN TO SPEND A$174.8B IN 2025-26; EST. A$174B
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yield Curve Steepener's See Some Profit Taking
The TYU5 range has been 112-12 to 112-15+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-13+, up 0-00+ from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Futures Lower Post Poor 2yr Auction, Ranges Holding, Tokyo CPI Tomorrow
JGB futures sit off session highs, last around 137.40, +.05 versus settlement levels. The poor 2yr auction has weighed post the lunch time break, but support still appears evident under 137.40. Recent August lows at 137.22 also remain intact.
AUSSIE BONDS: Futures Higher, AU-US 10yr Spread Close To Multi Month Highs
Aussie bond futures continue to hold gain, but tight ranges have prevailed. Positive carry over from futures gains in the US and the EU look to be major driver today, while Q2 capex data locally was weaker than expected. 10yr futures (XM) were just off session highs, last 95.68, +3bps, while 3yr futures (YM) were at 96.585, +2bps.
BONDS: NZGBS: Yields 3-5bps Lower, Back End Leads
New Zealand government bond yields have lost traction as the Thursday session unfolded. Benchmark yields sit close to 3-5bps lower across the curve, with back end yields seeing slightly largely losses. The 2yr NZGB yield was last at 2.95%, consolidating the recent break sub 3.00%, while the 10yr is back to 4.32%. We are tracking towards fresh lows since April of this year for this benchmark.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Weakness Extends In Asia
The BBDXY has had a range of 1202.84 - 1204.36 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1203, -0.15%. The initial USD demand seemed to be easily soaked up and when completed the USD proceeded to fall away effortlessly in the N/Y session. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. Risk has traded on the backfoot in Asia as the drag from the poor Nvidia earnings report followed through, E-minis -0.15%, NQU5 -0.30%. The USD’s use as a safe haven continues to be challenged though and has come back under pressure in early Asia even with risk trading heavy.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Drifts Back Towards 147.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 147.08-147.49, Asia is currently trading around 147.15, -0.20%. USD/JPY was capped by solid supply above 148.00 and when the USD demand was completed the pair proceeded to fall very easily again in the N/Y session. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. CFTC data for last week shows leveraged accounts again added to JPY shorts so they will be betting on the support continuing to hold. Should risk top out and have a deeper pullback this could create headwinds for cross-JPY.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Probes Above 0.6500
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6503 - 0.6522 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6510, +0.10%. The Nvidia quarterly earning report disappointed and risk traded under pressure early on, it stabilised mid day and has since pared back a good portion of the losses, E-minis -0.10%, NQU5 -0.25%. The AUD finds itself firmly back in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 and will need a clearer direction from both the USD and risk to embark on a decent move in either direction.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Probes Above 0.5850
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5855 - 0.5868 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5860, +0.05%. The Nvidia quarterly earning report disappointed being the poster child for AI and Tech it will be worth watching to see how the market digests this. The NZD again found some demand back towards 0.5800 overnight, sellers should continue to be around looking to fade any move back towards the 0.5950 area initially. US Futures traded heavily on the open on the back of Nvidia but have pared back a good portion of those losses, E-minis -0.05%, NQU5 -0.25%.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: US Tariffs Hit India as Major Markets Mixed Today
Analysts and fund managers in China are warning investors about potential short-term volatility in high-flying AI shares as some investors move away from broad index funds and into sector-specific ETFs, according to a report by China Securities Journal. The FT reported that one fabrication plant dedicated to producing Huawei’s AI processors in China is due to start production as soon as the end of the year, while another two are to launch next year and likely to double production output. Japanese stocks rose as sentiment improved after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake in Mitsubishi Corp. and as investors looked past Nvidia’s tepid earnings to focus on value shares.
It was generally a mixed day in Asia with the JCI and KOSPI leading, whilst the HSI and the NIFTY fell. The NIFTY is dragged down further by the doubling of US tariffs on Indian goods coming into effect overnight.
OIL: Crude Unwinds Wednesday’s Gains As Supply Worries At The Fore
Oil has given up a large share of Wednesday’s gains during today’s APAC trading as the excess supply outlook continues to worry the market and pressure prices. WTI is down 0.9% to $63.56/bbl just off the intraday low of $63.48, while Brent is 0.8% lower at $67.52/bbl after falling to $67.50. Both are set for a monthly decline in August. The USD index is down 0.1%.
Gold prices fell to $3384.67/oz earlier and while off the low are still down 0.2% to $3391.3/oz. The weaker US dollar (BBDXY -0.1%) has not provided support as 2-year yields are slightly higher. Bullion will be watching Fed developments closely with PCE prices on Friday which could impact September rate cut pricing, as well as continued attacks on Fed independence from the administration.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Economic Tendency Indicator | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | GDP | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | M3 | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
| 28/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Current account | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Payroll employment | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP / PCE Quarterly | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | NAR Pending Home Sales | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 28/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note | |
| 28/08/2025 | 2200/1800 | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | ||
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | Labor Force Survey | |
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | Tokyo CPI | |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | Retail Sales (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | GDP | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Import/Export Prices | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0630/0730 | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar | ||
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | PPI | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | GDP (f) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | Consumer Spending | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | GDP (f) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Bavaria CPI | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ECB de Guindos at Cursos Europeos de Verano | ||
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | Germany CPI (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | Germany CPI (p) | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | MNI Chicago PMI |