EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: JGB 10yr Yield Through 2.00% Post BoJ Hike

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UK
BOE (MNI BOE WATCH): The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in December by the narrowest possible margin, with a five-to-four vote in the Monetary Policy Committee, and said that the case for further easing was becoming more finely balanced.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (BBG): “ Britons are more likely to buy big-ticket items than they were before Rachel Reeves’ budget, according to a prominent survey that suggests sentiment has improved in the run up to Christmas.”
EU
UKRAINE/EU (BBG): “European Union leaders reached an agreement to loan Ukraine €90 billion ($106 billion) for the next two years, aiming to strengthen Kyiv’s hand at the negotiating table and keep the war-torn country afloat.”
ECB (MNI ECB WATCH): The European Central Bank as expected held its key deposit interest rate at 2% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday with President Christine Lagarde saying that there was an unanimous view on the Governing Council that there was no set rate path.
SWEDEN (MNI INTERVIEW): Sweden’s Riksbank aims to issue certificates to reduce the volume of reserves, Governor Erik Thedeen told MNI, adding that the hurdles before restarting any future round of quantitative easing will be higher than previously.
TRADE (BBG): “European Union leaders missed a self-imposed deadline to complete a free-trade agreement with a South American bloc of countries this week.”
US
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday he remains optimistic that interest rates can come down a significant amount over the next year, but stressed he needs some more assurance that inflation is on track to the central bank's 2% goal.
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): U.S. headline and core CPI both rose 0.2% over the two months from September to November, and are up a below-expected 2.74% and 2.63%, respectively, in the 12 months ended November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. Analysts had expected the annual rates for headline and core CPI to be 3.1% and 3.0%.
TECH (BBG): “TikTok’s long-delayed plan to separate from Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd. was put in motion Thursday when the video sharing sensation said it’s being bought by a group of buyers led by Oracle Corp.”
TECH (WSJ): “OpenAI is aiming to raise as much as $100 billion as it seeks to pay for ambitious growth plans in a market that has cooled recently on the artificial-intelligence boom.”
JAPAN
BOJ (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan on Friday unanimously decided to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50%, marking the highest level since 1995, while maintaining its gradual rate hike stance.
BOJ (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan on Friday maintained its cautious view on the economy and largely left unchanged its assessments of major components, including private consumption, capital investment and exports, following the Board's decision to hike the policy rate 25 basis points to 0.75%.
CPI (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s annual core consumer inflation rate rose 3.0% y/y in November, unchanged from October, reflecting a combination of lower energy prices and higher food prices excluding perishables, data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.
GEOPOLITICS (BBG): “A senior government official who advises Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on security expressed a personal opinion that Japan should have nuclear weapons, according to local media reports. “
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday trade talks with the U.S. will resume in mid-January, after President Donald Trump halted them a few weeks ago.
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): "New Zealand business confidence soared to a three-decade high in December and the mood of consumers also surged, adding to signs of further economic expansion in the fourth quarter and into 2026."
CHINA
FISCAL (YICAI): “Chief economists interviewed by Yicai broadly agree that fiscal policy support will intensify in 2026, with a more explicit emphasis on “investment in people” and on stimulating consumption. “
PBOC (YICAI): “China’s central bank conducted CNY100 billion in 14-day reverse repo operations on Dec 18, marking the reactivation of the tool for the first time in three-months, Yicai reports.”
RRR (CSJ): "The Chinese central bank’s reverse repurchase agreements started this week signals an effort to balance liquidity and steady market expectations ahead of the year-end, China Securities Journal reported, citing analysts."
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY35.7 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY56.2 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The PBOC conducted another CNY100 billion via 14-day reverse repos. The operation led to a net injection of CNY35.7 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY120.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0550 Fri; +3.65% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.0550 on Friday, compared with 7.0583 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.0378 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 101.5; PRIOR 98.4
NEW ZEALAND NOV EXPORTS NZD 6.99bn; PRIOR 6.44bn
NEW ZEALAND NOV IMPORTS NZD 7.15bn; PRIOR 8.03bn
NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE NZD -163mn; PRIOR -1598mn
NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 60.9; PRIOR 53.1
NEW ZEALAND DEC ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 73.6; PRIOR 67.1
AUSTRALIA NOV PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M 0.6%; MEDIAN 0.6%; PRIOR 0.7%
JAPAN NOV NATL CPI Y/Y 2.9%; MEDIAN 2.9%; PRIOR 3.0%
JAPAN NOV NATL CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 3.0%
JAPAN NOV NATL CPI EX FRESH FOOD, ENERGY Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 3.1%
JAPAN BOJ TARGET RATE 0.75%; MEDIAN 0.75%; PRIOR 0.50%
SOUTH KOREA NOV PPI Y/Y 1.9%; PRIOR 1.6%
UK DEC GfK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -17; MEDIAN -18; PRIOR -19
MARKETS
US TSYS: Yields Ending Week Near Bottom End of Recent Ranges
US bond futures fell today as equities rebounded and the BOJ raised rates. The 10-Yr is down -05 to 112-18. TYH6 remains higher by +12+ for the week, and near to the 20-day EMA of 112-19. A break below would see downside resistance from the 100 day EMA of 112-14+.

Cash is weak with yields higher across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year near the bottom end of the weekly range.
There are no scheduled bond auctions at this stage tonight.
Data wise home sales, Michigan sentiment and Kansas City Activity are out.
JGBS: Post-BOJ Decision Sell-Off Gathers Pace
JGB futures (JBH6) have cheapened dramatically, -45 compared to settlement levels, after an initial muted reaction to the BOJ decision to hike rates.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper & Near Worst Levels, AU-US 10Y Diff At Highs
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.0) are modestly weaker, although trading near the session’s worst levels.
Figure 1: AU-US Cash 10-Year Yield Differential (%)

Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
BONDS: NZGBS: Richer, NZ-AU 10Y Diff Back Near Lows
NZGBs closed 1-3bps richer, with the 5-10-year zone leading. The 5-year yield, nevertheless, remains 35bps higher than pre-RBNZ levels.

Bloomberg Finance LP
JPY: USD/JPY - Tests 156.00-30 After BOJ, Resistance Holds For Now
The USD/JPY range today has been 155.50 - 156.16 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around {USDJPY Curncy}. USD/JPY first traded a little lower after the BOJ raised rates but it quickly returned to challenge the 156.00-156.30 area which has capped the move in our session. Technically USD/JPY is in an uptrend, the first big support is back toward the 152.50-154.50 area. On the day, resistance is between the 156.00-156.30 area initially, support is seen back toward 154.50-155.00 where demand has been strong recently. A break above 156.30 would potentially open up a move back toward 157.00.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Treading Water
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1206.94 - 1208.33 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around {BBDXY Index}. The USD continues to chop around without really going anywhere, trading a little higher after the BOJ hiked rates. On the day I still have very little conviction on direction, look for initial resistance again back towards the 1209-1210 area and above here the more important 1213-1216 area where sellers should remerge initially. Can this 1204 area continue to provide support if not a move below here would target 1198-1200.
Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Continues To Hold Above 0.6600
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6608 - 0.6622 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around {AUDUSD Curncy}. The AUD continues to consolidate above 0.6600. The AUD price action for the moment remains consolidative, but I do remain wary of what seems to be happening in US stocks, let's see if this bounce can extend from here. Technically while the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 dips should continue to be supported. In the Asian session, watch to see if this 0.6590-0.6600 area can continue to hold, if not we could see a deeper pullback towards the 0.6500-50 support. On the day I suspect a break back above 0.6635 area could see the AUD target the 0.6660-80 resistance.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - A Little Softer Within Its Range
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5763-0.5783 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around {NZD Curncy}. The NZD is trading a little lower within its recent range. The NZD is consolidating its gains above 0.5700-0.5750 and for the most part has been left unscathed by the choppy price action seen elsewhere. On the day, I suspect more of the same, support is back toward 0.5740-0.5760 and resistance is around 0.5810-30.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Tech Rebound Provides Friday Boost
All eyes were on the BOJ today as 10-Yr JGB yields headed north of 2% and the Yen remains pressured. Whilst the hike was expected it was the outlook that investors focused on with the BOJ indicating that it will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation if the outlook for economic activity and prices presented in the October Outlook Report is realized. It seems that the BOJ may be overlooked and the weaker US CPI overnight the greater influence as equities rallied for many major bourses to finish the week, on hopes that a US rate cut could come sooner than what is currently priced in. Strong guidance from major chipmakers like Micron Technology in the US gave tech stocks a boost today also with some names up over 5% Friday.

OIL: Supply Concerns Override Geopolitical Tensions

Gold Set for Weekly Gains, Back Below Overbought on RSI

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 19/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Public Sector Finances | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | PPI | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | * | GFK Consumer Climate | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | PPI | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | Economic Tendency Indicator | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0830/0930 | ECB Wage Tracker | ||
| 19/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EZ Current Account | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
| 19/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | CBI Distributive Trades | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1200/1300 | ECB Cipollone Remarks, Roundtable at Aspen Institute | ||
| 19/12/2025 | 1200/1200 | BOE Market Participants Survey | ||
| 19/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Retail Trade | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1400/1500 | ** | BNB Business Confidence | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | NAR existing home sales | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1510/1610 | ECB Lane Lecture at Central Bank of Ireland | ||
| 19/12/2025 | 1630/1630 | BOE to announce APF Q4 Sales Schedule | ||
| 19/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 19/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |