MNI ASIA OPEN: US Bombs 3 Iranian Nuclear Sites

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• U.S. Bombs Key Nuclear Sites in Iran - The New York Times
• MNI FED: Waller Sees Rate Cuts As Early As July, Pushing Back On Powell
• MNI: Fed Report Flags Tariff Uncertainty, Powell To Testify
• MNI SECURITY: Kremlin Expects To Agree On Next Round Of Ukraine Talks, Next Week
• MNI US DATA: Philly Fed Mfg Current Inflation Eases In June But Expectations Climb

US

MNI FED: Waller Sees Rate Cuts As Early As July, Pushing Back On Powell

Gov Waller (permanent voter), one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, is speaking on CNBC and is in firm contrast to Fed Chair Powell from Wednesday’s press conference. Waller was already seen as a good bet of being one of the two dots looking for three cuts in what’s left of this year. Recall that Powell was far from emphatic about the prospect of rate cuts, all but taking a cut at the July meeting off the table. 

MNI: Fed Report Flags Tariff Uncertainty, Powell To Testify

*The Federal Reserve's latest Monetary Policy Report to Congress released Friday sounded an upbeat note on the state of the economy, arguing the current stance of monetary policy leaves the central bank well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity, and to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments. "The effects on U.S. consumer prices of the increase in import tariffs this year are highly uncertain, as trade policy continues to evolve, and it is still early to assess how consumers and firms will respond," the Fed report said. 

NEWS

U.S. Bombs Key Nuclear Sites in Iran - The New York Times

"American warplanes dropped bombs on three nuclear sites in Iran, President Trump said, bringing the U.S. military directly into the war after days of uncertainty about whether he would intervene."
 

MNI US: Pres Trump social media post on his media platform Truth Social: 

"We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter."

MNI US: Senate Parliamentarian Strikes Key Items From OBBB, Setback For GOP

The Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has ruled that several key pieces of the GOP’s 'One Big Beautiful Bill' fail to conform to the rules of Budget Reconciliation. Per an announcement from Senate Budget Democrats, MacDonough judged that a funding cap on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that would have cut USD$6.4 billion from the agency should be removed.

MNI US-CHINA: US Considers Cancelling Waivers For Chipmakers In China - WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports: “A U.S. official told top global semiconductor makers he wanted to revoke waivers they have used to access American technology in China, people familiar with the matter said, a move that could inflame trade tensions.” The report notes: "People involved in the discussions said revoking the waivers isn’t a done deal." Waivers applied to Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC that allow them to ship American chip-making equipment to their facilities in China without separate licenses could be cancelled, according to the report.

MNI SECURITY: Kremlin Expects To Agree On Next Round Of Ukraine Talks, Next Week

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov has spoken on conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Peskov declined to predict a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump happening this year, noting “complex work” is needed before a meeting could take place, per Reuters. Peskov said the Kremlin hopes to agree on a new date soon to resume talks with US on removing “irritants” in relations. Peskov noted that “dialogue with Ukraine continues,” and the Kremlin expects to “agree next week” on a date for the next round of talks.

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Tsys Narrow/Higher Range, Trump Been "Speaking to Iran"

• Treasuries look to finish higher Friday, top half of narrow range. Early risk-on tone followed unscheduled comments from Fed Governor Waller on the possibility of a rate cut in July and headlines that Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment plans.
• No market reaction to late Pres Trump comments to reporters & social media posts: "WILL MAKE TRADE DEAL WITH INDIA, PAKISTAN," "BEEN SPEAKING TO IRAN," "IRAN WANTS TO SPEAK TO US, NOT EUROPE" - Bbg posts. Trump adds Europe is not going to help with Iran, nor will China; Trump "might" support Israel/Iran ceasefire
• The price details of the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June showed a pullback from elevated rates for both prices paid and prices received in the current period. Six-month ahead expectations for prices paid pushed higher again though, and at 68.9 is getting closer to the high of 77.8 from Jan 2022, although prices received isn’t quite as relatively elevated.
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures trades +5 at 110-30.5 vs. 111-03 high, remains below key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Curves steeper, 2s10s +2.611 at 47.137, 5s30s +3.530 at 93.143. 10Y yield at 4.3791% vs. 4.3593% low. Projected rate cut pricing back to 50bp by December.
• Cross asset: Stocks mixed (DJIA +29.34 at 42,202.0, SPX eminis -20.75 at 6013.5), Gold mildly lower at 3365.05, Bbg US$ index little firmer at 1210.80 +1.10.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Philly Fed Mfg Current Inflation Eases In June But Expectations Climb

The price details of the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June showed a pullback from elevated rates for both prices paid and prices received in the current period. Six-month ahead expectations for prices paid pushed higher again though, and at 68.9 is getting closer to the high of 77.8 from Jan 2022, although prices received isn’t quite as relatively elevated.   

MNI CANADA DATA: Retail Sales Tentatively Slide In May After Two Monthly Gains

Canadian retail sales are indicated to have dropped -1.1% M/M in May after two straight months of increase, according to Statistics Canada’s flash estimate Friday. Official reading shows sales increased 0.3% M/M  in April, below StatsCan’s earlier estimate of 0.5% and analyst expectations of 0.4% M/M, after 0.8% M/M in March.

MNI CANADA DATA: Industrial Price Inflation Cools In May

Canada's Industrial Price Index surprisingly slipped -0.5% M/M in May (cons 0.0, albeit only three analyst estimates) after -0.8% M/M in April. There wasn't much different on the month when excluding energy & petroleum products, at -0.3% M/M. It left IPPI inflation at 1.2% Y/Y in May, led by gold as prices were boosted by trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. It's an eighth consecutive positive reading although is the softest pace since October having peaked at 5.6% Y/Y in January.

MNI EUROZONE DATA: Flash June Consumer Confidence Slightly Weaker Than Expected

Eurozone June flash consumer confidence was slightly weaker than expected at -15.3 (vs -14.9 cons, a one tenth upward revised  -15.1 prior), but remains above April’s -16.6 low. No details provided in the flash release as usual.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 15.98 points (0.04%) at 42190.87
S&P E-Mini Future down 17.75 points (-0.29%) at 6017
Nasdaq down 106 points (-0.5%) at 19441.82
US 10-Yr yield is down 1.2 bps at 4.3791%
US Sep 10-Yr futures are up 5/32 at 110-30.5
EURUSD up 0.0021 (0.18%) at 1.1516
USDJPY up 0.72 (0.5%) at 146.17
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.21 (-0.28%) at $74.93
Gold is down $5.71 (-0.17%) at $3365.31

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 36.55 points (0.7%) at 5233.58
FTSE 100 down 17.15 points (-0.2%) at 8774.65
German DAX up 293.17 points (1.27%) at 23350.55
French CAC 40 up 36.21 points (0.48%) at 7589.66

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

3M10Y +1.821, 6.931 (L: 1.17 / H: 11.907)
2Y10Y +2.188, 46.714 (L: 43.627 / H: 48.452)
2Y30Y +3.875, 98.182 (L: 93.441 / H: 99.858)
5Y30Y +3.151, 92.764 (L: 89.335 / H: 93.919)
Current futures levels:
Sep 2-Yr futures up 1.875/32 at 103-22.375 (L: 103-18.87 / H: 103-23.625)
Sep 5-Yr futures up 3.5/32 at 108-7.25 (L: 107-30.25 / H: 108-10.5)
Sep 10-Yr futures up 5/32 at 110-30.5 (L: 110-16 / H: 111-03)
Sep 30-Yr futures up 1/32 at 113-21 (L: 112-29 / H: 114-00)
Sep Ultra futures down 1/32 at 116-25 (L: 115-28 / H: 117-11)

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Intact

• RES 4: 111-30   76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
• RES 3: 111-21   1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
• RES 1: 111-13   High Jun 13
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-24+ @ 11:01 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11       
• SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing

Key resistance in Treasury futures at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high, remains intact for now. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger at 109-12+, the May 22 low.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Sep 25 +0.030 at 95.890
Dec 25 +0.040 at 96.150
Mar 26 +0.045 at 96.370
Jun 26 +0.040 at 96.575
Red Pack (Sep 26-Jun 27) +0.025 to +0.035
Green Pack (Sep 27-Jun 28) +0.025 to +0.030
Blue Pack (Sep 28-Jun 29) +0.020 to +0.025
Gold Pack (Sep 29-Jun 30) +0.010 to +0.015

REFERENCE RATES (PRIOR SESSION)
​​​​​​​
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.28% (-0.03), volume: $2.639T

• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.27% (-0.02), volume: $1.088T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.27% (-0.02), volume: $1.062T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $109B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $290B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage resumes following Thursday's holiday, retreats $138.283B this afternoon from $205.050B Wednesday, total number of counterparties at 40. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $3B XAI 5Y Launched

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 06/20 $3B #XAI 5Y 12.5% (Elon Musk's xAI funding)
• 06/18-19 No new issuance Wed-Thu, 32.717B/wk

MNI FOREX: EURJPY Extends Rally, Reaches Near 11-Month High

• The week has been characterised by a fragile risk backdrop associated with the middle east conflict, furtively boosting the greenback’s appeal. The USD Index has showed above the downtrendline that has helped define the dollar weakness across Trump's term so far, with the geopolitical uncertainty prompting a covering phase that triggered a close above resistance yesterday. This level remains relevant and a corrective phase higher could build a base on a convincing break.
• There has been mixed price action across G10 on Friday, with the most notable laggards, the AUD and NZD, while the Japanese yen has also been under pressure. As such, USDJPY has risen as high as 145.96, narrowing the gap to an important resistance at 146.28, the May 29 high.
• However, EURUSD is higher Friday and sits just 25 pips lower on the week, a very positive sign for market participants looking for further single currency appreciation in H2. Moving average studies continue to display a dominant uptrend, with corrective dips remaining well supported. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.1696, a Fibonacci projection.
• The Euro’s resilience has seen EURJPY (+0.63%) extend its recent rally, and notably climbing above 168.00 to trade at near 11-month highs for the cross, and signalling scope for a move towards 170.00.
• USDCAD stands 0.22% higher on the day following a weaker-than-expected set of Canadian April retail sales and a notably weak flash print for May.
• Global flash PMI data highlights Monday’s calendar, with French and German readings kicking things off. 

MONDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
23/06/2025	0700/0300		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
23/06/2025	0715/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0715/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0730/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0730/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
23/06/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
23/06/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
23/06/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
23/06/2025	1300/1500		EU	ECB Lagarde At ECON Hearing
23/06/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
23/06/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
23/06/2025	1400/1000	***	US	NAR existing home sales
23/06/2025	1400/1000		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
23/06/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
23/06/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
23/06/2025	1720/1320		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
23/06/2025	1830/1430		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler