US TSYS: Tsys Narrow/Higher Range, Trump Been "Speaking to Iran"
Jun-20 19:53
- Treasuries look to finish higher Friday, top half of narrow range. Early risk-on tone followed unscheduled comments from Fed Governor Waller on the possibility of a rate cut in July and headlines that Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment plans.
- No market reaction to late Pres Trump comments to reporters & social media posts: "WILL MAKE TRADE DEAL WITH INDIA, PAKISTAN," "BEEN SPEAKING TO IRAN," "IRAN WANTS TO SPEAK TO US, NOT EUROPE" - Bbg posts. Trump adds Europe is not going to help with Iran, nor will China; Trump "might" support Israel/Iran ceasefire
- The price details of the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June showed a pullback from elevated rates for both prices paid and prices received in the current period. Six-month ahead expectations for prices paid pushed higher again though, and at 68.9 is getting closer to the high of 77.8 from Jan 2022, although prices received isn’t quite as relatively elevated.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures trades +5 at 110-30.5 vs. 111-03 high, remains below key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Curves steeper, 2s10s +2.611 at 47.137, 5s30s +3.530 at 93.143. 10Y yield at 4.3791% vs. 4.3593% low. Projected rate cut pricing back to 50bp by December.
- Cross asset: Stocks mixed (DJIA +29.34 at 42,202.0, SPX eminis -20.75 at 6013.5), Gold mildly lower at 3365.05, Bbg US$ index little firmer at 1210.80 +1.10.
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US TSYS: Massive Deficit Estimates Tied to Tax/Spending Bill Weighing on Bonds
May-21 19:44
- Treasuries look to finish near late Wednesday session lows, curves bear steepening: 2s10s +6.792 at 58.019 - highest level since May 1. Heavier volumes tied to Jun/Sep Tsy futures rolls, 5s well over 1M.
- No economic data, headline or outright flow to site for the move other than trepidation over Pres Trump's tax & spending bill estimated to increase the deficit appr $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Lawmakers continued to debate the bill and passage remained uncertain despite Pre Trump personally haranguing GOP holdouts.
- Treasury futures extend session lows after the $16B 20Y Bond auction (912810UL0) tailed, drawing a high yield of 5.047% vs 5.035% When-Issued yield at the cutoff; 2.46x bid-to-cover vs. 2.63x prior. Bonds yield climbed to 5.0955% intraday high - last seen late October 2023. 10Y yield up to 4.5825% (+.0956).
- The Jun'25 10Y futures contract slipped to 109-13.5 low (-25) briefly -- through initial technical support at 109-18.5 (May 15 low) before bouncing to 109-19 - strengthening a bearish theme and exposing key support at 109-08, Apr 24 low and a bear trigger.
- Cross asset update: Gold up 33.4 at 3323.42, stocks weaker with rise in bond yield (SPX emini -95.0 to 5864.75), Crude retreating (WTI -0.62 at 61.41).
- Look ahead to Thursday's data: Weekly Claims at 0830ET, Flash PMIs at 0945ET, Exist Home Sales at 1000ET and KC Fed Mfg Activity at 1100ET.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Flash PMIs, Exist Home Sales
May-21 19:38
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 22-May 0800 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
- 22-May 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (229k, 230k)
- 22-May 0830 Continuing Claims (1.881M, 1.883M)
- 22-May 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.03, -0.25)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (50.2, 49.9)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (50.8, 51.0)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.6, 50.3)
- 22-May 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.02M, 4.10M), MoM (-5.9%, 2.0%)
- 22-May 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (-4, -5)
- 22-May 1130 US Tsy $85B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
- 22-May 1300 US Tsy $18B 10Y TIPS auction
- 22-May 1400 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks NY Fed event (text, Q&A)
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Point North
May-21 19:30
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6465 @ 16:18 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 0.6362 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
AUDUSD traded higher into the close, and has largely reversed the RBA-tripped weakness seen into the Tuesday close. This keeps the trend condition bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6362, the 50-day EMA.
