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US TSY FUTURES: June'25-September'25 Roll Update

May-21 16:21

Surging Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from June'25 to September'25 outlined below. The 5Y continues to lead volumes with nearly 1M so far, the roll approximately 20% complete ahead the "First Notice" date on May 30. Current roll details:

  • TUM5/TUU5 appr 267,100 from -9.12 to -8.5, -8.62 last, appr 10% complete
  • FVM5/FVU5 appr 997,400 from -3.75 to -3.0, -3.25 last, appr 20% complete
  • TYM5/TYU5 appr 530,900 from -1.5 to -0.5, -0.75 last, appr 16% complete
  • UXYM5/UXYU5 appr 145,300 from 3.75 to 4.0, 3.75 last, appr 7% complete
  • USM5/USU5 appr 183,100 from 10.0 to 12.75, 11.5 last, appr 11% complete
  • WNM5/WNU5 appr 98,500 from 6.0 to 6.75, 6.25 last, appr 8% complete
  • Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 18, 2s and 5s on June 30. June Tsy options, however, expire May 23.

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 20Y Auction

May-21 16:02

Tsy futures remain weaker ahead of the $16B 20Y bond auction (912810UL0) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 5.035%, 22.5bp cheap to last month's stop. Today's results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.

  • April auction recap: the $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UJ5) traded 0.4bp through, with a high yield of 4.810% vs a 4.814% When-Issued yield at cutoff. This was a smaller trade-through than prior (1.4bp in March), but was the 3rd in the last 4 auctions.
  • As with the trade-through, the main peripheral statistics were weaker than March's but overall largely in line with the past 5-auction average: bid-cover of 2.63x (5-auction average 2.56x) and primary dealer takedown 17.0% (15.5% avg).
  • Indirects took a relatively high 70.7% (66.6% avg), the highest in 8 auctions and a potential signal of foreign demand for the Bond - with directs taking a lesser 12.3% (18.0% avg).

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Turkiye 7Y Launched

May-21 15:59
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 05/20 $4B *ADB 5Y SOFR+42
  • 05/21 $2B #Turkiye 7Y 7.45%
  • 05/21 $1.5B OKB 3Y +34
  • 05/21 $1.25B *Kommunalbanken +5Y SOFR+49
  • 05/21 $1B Finnvera WNG 5Y SOFR+53a
  • 05/21 $Benchmark Citibank 2Y +58, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +78, 5Y SOFR
  • 05/21 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual Life 30Y +135a
  • 05/21 $Benchmark BPCE 6NC5 +150a, 11NC10 +175a