MNI SNB Preview: September 2025 - Avoid Negativity

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Markets and analysts see a hold at 0.00% at Thursday’s meeting as most likely, with a cut into negative territory appearing improbable given inflation has remained within the SNB’s defined range of price stability for three months now.
• US tariffs at 39% remain of some concern for the Swiss economy leading to downside pressure on GDP estimates but should not move the needle for near-term SNB policy.
• The rates outlook is likely to continue to be characterized by a high bar to further cuts into negative territory, a comment on that may or may not make it into the press statement but will anyways be discussed in the subsequent media conference.
• The SNB’s FX communications paragraph is likely to remain materially unchanged given a limited move in the trade-weighted CHF since the June meeting.
• For the first time, additional colour on the governing board decision making process will be the provided four weeks after the meeting with the new meeting summaries.