US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Intact
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 111-13 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 110-24+ @ 11:01 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
Key resistance in Treasury futures at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high, remains intact for now. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-28, the Jun 6 / 11 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and open the bear trigger at 109-12+, the May 22 low.
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UK DMO UPDATE: 11:30am BST Bidding Deadline Confirmed
The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) confirms that the bidding window for this morning's auction of 4% Treasury Gilt 2031 will close at 11:30am today (Wednesday 21 May 2025).
- The Post Auction Option Facility (PAOF) window for this auction will operate from 2:00pm to 2:30pm today (Wednesday 21 May 2025).
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- They believe that yesterday’s steepening flow is likely the result of hedge fund activity and not actual pension fund flow.
- Rabobank currently estimate a little over of EUR160mln DV01 of pension fund adjustment around 1 January ’26, with an additional ~EUR180mln DV01 of pension fund adjustment around 1 January ’27, although warn that these significant volumes will likely be spread over time, predominantly after the expected transfer date.
G7: Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors' Meeting To Get Underway
The G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting gets underway in earnest today in Banff, Alb. in western Canada.
- Wednesday schedule: A welcoming ceremony and group photograph will take place at 0815 local time (1015ET, 1515BST, 1615CET), followed by an official opening at 0900 local (1100ET, 1600BST, 1700CET). Working sessions on global economy, economic resilience and security, and the situation in Ukraine, among others, get underway 30 mins later, continuing through to 1600 local.
- Thursday schedule: Ministers and governors hold working sessions on financial crime and artificial intelligence from 0830 local (1030ET, 1530BST, 1630CET) before Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem hold a closing press conference from 1230 local (1430ET, 1930BST, 2030CET).
- Leaders of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will also be in attendance at the meeting.
- Ministers from across the G7 are likely to hold sideline meetings with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as they look to push for deals to avoid the re-imposition of reciprocal tariffs.
- On 20 May, Champagne kicked off the meeting with a press conference alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Sergii Marchenko. Champagne told reporters that G7 ministers stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Ukraine, adding, "It sends a strong message to the world that we are, all of us, are recommitting to support Ukraine. We're going to hold Russia to account and we're also going to talk about what we're going to be doing in terms of reconstruction."
