MNI ASIA OPEN: Focus on Midweek Data, Tsy Quarterly Refunding
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI US TSYS/SUPPLY: Analysts Eye Distant Upsizings, Bill Sales To Rise
- MNI ENERGY SECURITY: Trump Weighing Venezuela Options: NYT
- MNI US DATA: Light Vehicle Sales Could Drag On October Retail Sales
- MNI US DATA: Redbook Retail Sales Close Out October On Solid Footing
- MNI US DATA: Private Labor Indicators To Watch Over The Next Two Days
US
MNI US TSYS/SUPPLY: Analysts Eye Distant Upsizings, Bill Sales To Rise
Analysts' outlooks for Wednesday's refunding reflect almost no expectations for any major changes, but there is increasing attention being paid to the likelihood of increased bill issuance ahead as coupon sizes aren't increased until well into 2026 at least.
NEWS
BITCOIN HITS LOWEST SINCE JUNE AS RISK-OFF MOOD HITS CRYPTO
MNI ENERGY SECURITY: Trump Weighing Venezuela Options: NYT
The NYT released an article citing US officials which states that the Trump administration has developed a range of military options against Venezuela, including seizing oil fields. Officials said Trump is in no rush to decide on action. He remains reluctant to approve operations that may fail and risk American troops. His public remarks on action have also been conflicting. The NYT said that a decision will be delayed at least until the Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean in mid-Nov.
MNI NORTH KOREA: Newsis-SK Spy Agency Says Trump-Kim Summit 'Highly Likely' In 2026
South Korea's Newsis reports that according to the country's National Intelligence Service, North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is "willing" to talk to US President Donald Trump, adding that a US-North Korea summit is "highly likely" and could come after the joint military exercises planned between South Korea and the US in March.
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Tsys Hold Higher Levels Ahead Midweek Data & Tsy Refunding Annc
- Treasuries look to finish modestly higher Tuesday - upper half of narrow session range as markets await Wednesday's non-government produced economic data: ADP employment, S&P Global US Services/Composite PMI and ISM Services as well as US Tsy Quarterly Refunding annc.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +4.5 at 112-26 vs. 112-28.5 high, 10Y yield -.0272 at 4.0832%. The contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 114-02, the Oct 17 high.
- The next two days see some private sector labor indicators that likely will see particular attention this week with a lack of BLS releases. ADP is expected to see some stabilization after recent job losses, with added questions over how its regular monthly report correlates with a newly published weekly series, whilst the Challenger report offers a look at hiring plans for a second important seasonal month.
- Analysts' outlooks for Wednesday's refunding reflect almost no expectations for any major changes, but there is increasing attention being paid to the likelihood of increased bill issuance ahead as coupon sizes aren't increased until well into 2026 at least.
- Greenback underpinned Tuesday, prompting the USD index to establish its position back above the 100 mark, at fresh recovery highs. The index traded to within 4 pips of the August 01 highs. Price action led an impressive lurch lower for spot gold, which briefly extended declines to 1.8% on the day to $3,930/oz.
- Stocks expected to announce earnings after the close include: Arista Networks Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Corteva, Rivian Automotive, Advanced Micro Devices, American International Grp, Mosaic Co, Pinterest, Match Group, AES Corp, Super Micro Computer, Amgen Inc.
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Redbook Retail Sales Close Out October On Solid Footing
Retail sales growth picked up in the final week of October to 5.7% Y/Y from 5.2% prior, per the Johnson Redbook index. This kept October's sales at +5.4% Y/Y, same as the month-to-date figure estimated for the prior week albeit slightly below retailers' targeted 5.6% gain.
MNI US DATA: Private Labor Indicators To Watch Over The Next Two Days
The next two days see some private sector labor indicators that likely will see particular attention this week with a lack of BLS releases. ADP is expected to see some stabilization after recent job losses, with added questions over how its regular monthly report correlates with a newly published weekly series, whilst the Challenger report offers a look at hiring plans for a second important seasonal month. The ADP employment report on Wednesday is expected to point to a 40k increase in private payrolls in October after a surprisingly weak -32k in September and -3k in August.
MNI US DATA: Light Vehicle Sales Could Drag On October Retail Sales
Light vehicle sales weakened considerably in October per data from Wards Automotive, coming in at 15.32 million on a seasonally-adjusted, annual basis in volumes, down from 16.39 million prior (and weaker than the 15.50 million consensus). This was the lowest figure since August 2024 and represented a 6.5% M/M drop, the biggest in 5 months. The dropoff is due to the end-September expiry of tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles. Overall, sales are more or less where they typically printed in 2023-24 before tariff-related frontrunning/volatility in 2025.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 243.9 points (-0.52%) at 47096.21
S&P E-Mini Future down 74 points (-1.08%) at 6809
Nasdaq down 437.1 points (-1.8%) at 23399.31
US 10-Yr yield is down 2.5 bps at 4.0852%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are up 4.5/32 at 112-26
EURUSD down 0.0038 (-0.33%) at 1.1482
USDJPY down 0.56 (-0.36%) at 153.66
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.61 (-1%) at $60.44
Gold is down $62.5 (-1.56%) at $3938.99
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 19.05 points (-0.34%) at 5660.2
FTSE 100 up 13.59 points (0.14%) at 9714.96
German DAX down 183.3 points (-0.76%) at 23949.11
French CAC 40 down 42.26 points (-0.52%) at 8067.53
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y -3.032, 20.494 (L: 16.681 / H: 22.621)
2Y10Y +0.137, 50.523 (L: 49.677 / H: 51.687)
2Y30Y +0.228, 108.557 (L: 107.625 / H: 110.399)
5Y30Y +0.368, 96.999 (L: 96.395 / H: 98.258)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures up 1.125/32 at 104-5.5 (L: 104-03.875 / H: 104-06.5)
Dec 5-Yr futures up 2.5/32 at 109-9.5 (L: 109-05.5 / H: 109-11.5)
Dec 10-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 112-26 (L: 112-19.5 / H: 112-28.5)
Dec 30-Yr futures up 9/32 at 117-14 (L: 117-01 / H: 117-18)
Dec Ultra futures up 13/32 at 121-12 (L: 120-27 / H: 121-17)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-03 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-26 @ 10:41 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 112-16 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 112-14 Low Oct 9
- SUP 3: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 4: 111-30+ Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
Recent weakness in Treasuries undermines a bullish theme. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 112-26+, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement near-term. A continuation lower would open 112-06, the Sep 25 low and the next key support. The contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 114-02, the Oct 17 high.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 +0.015 at 96.250
Mar 26 +0.025 at 96.440
Jun 26 +0.020 at 96.665
Sep 26 +0.015 at 96.820
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) +0.015 to +0.025
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) +0.015 to +0.020
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) +0.015 to +0.015
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) +0.015 to +0.020
REFERENCE RATES
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.13% (-0.09), volume: $3.237T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.09% (-0.06), volume: $1.159T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.09% (-0.06), volume: $1.122T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.86% (-0.01), volume: $107B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.86% (-0.01), volume: $195B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage slips to $16.893B with 13 counterparties this afternoon - from $23.792B Monday. Compares to $2.435B on October 24 (lowest level since mid-March 2021) and the year's highest usage of $460.731B on June 30.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1B Standard Chartered Priced
$5.7B to Price Tuesday - well off Monday's pace of $40.7B
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/04 $1.3B #Entergy $600M 30.5NC5.25 5.875%, $700M 30.5NC10.25 6.1%
- 11/04 $1.2B #Westlake Corp $600M 10Y +150, $600M 30Y +175
- 11/04 $1B *Standard Chartered Perp NC10 7.0%
- 11/04 $700M *Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 7Y 5.95%
- 11/04 $700M Wayfair 7NC3
- 11/04 $500M #Sharjah Islamic Bank 5Y Sukuk +95a
- 11/04 $300M *Laos People's Democratic Rep 5Y 11.25%
- Expected later in the week:
- 11/06 $800M Breakwater Energy 5NC2 9%a
- 11/06 $1.4B Cipher Compute 5NC2 Investor calls, launching Thursday
MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Light UK Bull Steepening On Fiscal Factors
European yields fell modestly Tuesday, partially retracing Monday's rise.
- A broader risk-off move helped underpin core EGBs in early trade, but didn't provide a significant boost.
- Regional data was limited, with more focus on fiscal developments in the UK.
- UK Chancellor Reeves' pre-budget appearance appeared to signal incoming tax increases, with the government hoping to pave the way for BOE rate cuts via tighter fiscal policy.
- That helped the UK curve bull steepen lightly, with Germany's bull flattening. Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads widened slightly.
- Wednesday's schedule includes German factory orders and final services PMIs, along with multiple ECB speakers (including Villeroy and Nagel) and BOE's Breeden not to mention the Swedish Riksbank decision. Focus remains on Thursday's BOE however.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.1bps at 1.997%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.255%, 10-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.654%, and 30-Yr is down 1.4bps at 3.237%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.1bps at 3.784%, 5-Yr is down 0.8bps at 3.899%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 4.425%, and 30-Yr is down 0.4bps at 5.204%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.3bps at 74.6bps / French OAT up 0.4bps at 78.2bps
MNI FOREX: USD Index Extends Towards Aug Highs, Notable GBP and NZD Weakness
- Further upward pressure on the greenback was on show Tuesday, prompting the USD index to establish its position back above the 100 mark, at fresh recovery highs. The index traded to within 4 pips of the August 01 highs. Price action led an impressive lurch lower for spot gold, which briefly extended declines to 1.8% on the day to $3,930/oz. Across the G10, dented risk sentiment weighed significantly on the likes of AUD and NZD, while additional fiscal headwinds added further pressure on GBP.
- GBPUSD extended notably lower, with downside momentum building on a break of 1.31. UK Chancellor Reeves’ pre-budget appearance provided her clearest signal yet that sizeable tax rises are incoming (suggested by the statement of working in the national interest, rather than political popularity), as well as indicating her intention to pave the way with fiscal policy to allow for further BoE rate cuts.
- As we approach the APAC crossover, GBPUSD sits below 1.3041, the Apr 14 low, another bearish technical development for the pair. 1.2971 will act as interim support on the way to 1.2709, a key medium-term level.
- NZDUSD tracks lower for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, significantly breaching both trendline support (drawn from the April lows) and the recent cycle low of 0.5683. Coupled with the NZDUSD extension lower, AUDNZD was also in focus Tuesday, after two separate rallies stalled just ahead of key medium-term resistance at 1.1491.
- We have highlighted that a break of this level would place the cross at its highest point since 2013, with plenty of attention on the level/1.1500 ahead of NZ employment data, which highlights the APAC calendar on Wednesday.
- Central bank decisions in Sweden, Poland and Brazil are also due tomorrow, while US ISM services data are also scheduled.
WEDNESDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** |  SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 05/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/11/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 05/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 05/11/2025 | 1610/1610 | GB | BOE Breeden At SALT Blockchain Event | |
| 06/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | average wages (p) |
| 06/11/2025 | - |  NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 06/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Trade Balance |
