ECB: Kocher Continues To Advocate For MonPol Caution

• Weekly jobless claims are released at 0830ET, a day early owing to the Christmas holiday, and should offer a clearer look at latest labor developments another week on from Thanksgiving distortions.   
• Initial claims will be for the week to Dec 20 (expected to remain unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 224k) and include revisions to the Dec 13 week. The latter is a payrolls reference period, not that revisions tend to be large for initial claims and with them currently close to historically low levels (averaged 218k in 2019).
• The seasonally adjusted 224k currently shown for the December reference period compares with 222k for Nov, 231k for Oct, 232k for Sep and 234k for Aug.
• Continuing claims will provide a more useful update when it comes to reference periods, expected at a seasonally adjusted 1900k. If accurate, it would provide a favorable comparison after the 1944k in Nov, 1957k in Oct, 1916k in Sep and 1944k in Aug. Bear in mind that there is a longstanding pattern of downward revisions to the first release in the following week.
• Continuing claims have seen cycle highs in the 1960k’s throughout June, July, Aug and late Oct but haven’t broken above this (again, after revisions), implying a deterioration in hiring conditions ahead of the summer but one that has since stabilized.

Following on from our previous bullet highlighting the latest strain on US-EU relations (US-EU: Visa Restrictions Risk Further Strain To Already Frayed US-EU Relations), the European Commission and French President Emmanuel Macron have now publicly condemned the US's actions in restricting visa access to French former European Commissioner Thierry Breton. 

• In a statement, the Commission said it "strongly condemns" the visa restrictions, and that "We have requested clarifications from the U.S. authorities and remain engaged. If needed, we will respond swiftly and decisively to defend our regulatory autonomy against unjustified measures."
• Posting in English on X, Macron said France also condemns the actions, and "These measures amount to intimidation and coercion aimed at undermining European digital sovereignty."
• After two German citizens were also subjected to entry bans, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the action was "not acceptable". The German foreign minister utilised the same language that EU and French officials have used in emphasising that the DSA was passed democratically and it does not have an extraterritorial effect.
• Earlier in the month, following EU fines levied against Elon Musk's X platform over violations of the DSA, senior administration officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Federal Communications Commission chair Brendan Carr, and the US' ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder, criticised the ruling as an attack on US firms, and an attempt to shut down free speech in the US.