GERMAN DATA: June Factory Orders Beat Defies Weaker Sentiment Data
Germany factory orders surprised to the upside in June, rising 3.9% M/M SWDA (vs 0.5% cons, a one tenth downwardly revised -1.7% prior). The beat follows five consecutive months of downside surprises (and also five consecutive negative sequential monthly readings) and comes against a backdrop of weakening industrial sentiment data (e.g. the manufacturing PMI, IFO and EC industry survey).
- On a 3m/3m SWDA basis, sales remained weak at -1.4% while the Y/Y figure was -11.8% (vs -14.2% cons, -8.7% prior).
- Looking at the “core” factory orders metric (excluding large-scale orders), sales rose 3.3% M/M (vs -2.4% prior) and 1.4% on a 3m/3m basis (vs -0.8% prior).
- Core durable goods orders rose 11.0% 3m/3m (vs 10.8% prior), with the press release noting a 9.3% M/M rise in automative industry orders.
- Core domestic orders rose 4.7% M/M and 0.9% 3m/3m in June, while foreign orders rose 2.3% M/M and 1.8% 3m/3m.
- Real turnover in manufacturing, which can provide some signal for the June industrial production release (due tomorrow), was -0.9% M/M and -5.0% Y/Y. Current consensus for June IP stands at 1.0% M/M (vs -2.5% prior) and -4.2% Y/Y (vs -6.7% prior).
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US: First Look At Biden's ABC Interview Expected Shortly
18:30 ET 23:30 BST: ABC's "World News Tonight with David Muir" is expected to broadcast shorty the first clips from today's interview with US President Joe Biden, conducted by George Stephanopoulos. Detail can be found on the ABC website here.
- ABC notes: "A first look will air on the Friday, July 5, edition of "World News Tonight with David Muir" and the interview will air in its entirety as a primetime special Friday, July 5 at 8/7c on ABC News. The interview and additional analysis will air again Sunday, July 7 on "This Week.""
- The stakes are exceptionally high for Biden with pressure to intensify on the President to step aside if he fails to deliver an assured performance. MNI's Political Risk team examines the challenging political environment for Biden as he seeks to resurrect his re-election bid following a shaky first debate performance. MNI US Elections Weekly
USDCAD TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
- RES 1: 1.3675 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3632 @ 16:23 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD rallied into the Friday close, however the short-term bearish threat remains in place as resistance stayed untroubled across the week. Note that price has breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3675. This reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a print below 1.3590, May 16 low. An extension would expose 1.3590, the May 16 low and key support. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Breakout
- RES 4: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 0.6752 High Jul 05
- RES 1: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.6742 @ 16:22 BST Jul 05
- SUP 1: 0.6660 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6630 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8
A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact. A strong rally this week resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement, was tested - but prices faded off the mark into the European close. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6626, the 50-day EMA.
