US-EU: Visa Restrictions Risk Further Strain To Already Frayed US-EU Relations

Dec-24 10:09

Visa restrictions launched against five European individuals, including a former European Commissioner, by the US State Department on 23 Dec for alleged 'extraterritorial censorship' comes as another blow to already-strained transatlantic relations. The measures risk fallout in other areas of policy that could have wider-ranging impacts, whether related to trade or security. 

  • In a statement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio (usually seen as one of the more traditional Atlanticist Republicans in the Trump administration) said, "For far too long, ideologues in Europe have led organized efforts to coerce American platforms to punish American viewpoints they oppose. The Trump Administration will no longer tolerate these egregious acts of extraterritorial censorship."
  • Former European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Thierry Breton was hit with visa restrictions. US Under Secretary of State Sarah Rogers described him as “a mastermind of the Digital Services Act”, legislation strongly opposed by the Trump administration.
  • The move was criticised by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who said the DSA "has absolutely no extraterritorial reach and does not apply in any way to the United States. The peoples of Europe are free and sovereign and cannot have rules imposed on their digital space by others."
  • With President Donald Trump's appointment of an 'envoy to Greenland' earlier in the week, resulting in a backlash from Denmark and the EU, the visa restrictions risk further damage to US-EU relations that have hit a multi-decade (if not all-time) nadir in 2025. 

Historical bullets

COMMODITIES: Additional Weakness for WTI Would Expose Key Support at $55.99

Nov-24 10:07

The move down last week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 does suggest that correction is over. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3952.9. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.

  • WTI Crude down $0.54 or -0.93% at $57.5
  • Natural Gas down $0.04 or -0.83% at $4.542
  • Gold spot up $11.14 or +0.27% at $4073.84
  • Copper down $2.4 or -0.47% at $507.25
  • Silver up $0.29 or +0.57% at $50.2912
  • Platinum up $6.53 or +0.43% at $1527.74

EQUITIES: Last Week’s Eurostoxx Sell-Off Highlights a Stronger Corrective Cycle

Nov-24 10:07

Last week’s sell-off in Eurostoxx 50 futures highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5597.64, the 50-day EMA, and 5626.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5427.01, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5633.27, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and weakness last week reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 6476.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6735.63, the 20-day EMA.

  • In China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 1.874 pts or +0.05% at 3836.765 and the HANG SENG ended 496.48 pts higher or +1.97% at 25716.5.
  • Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 179.91 pts or +0.78% at 23272.24, FTSE 100 higher by 27.85 pts or +0.29% at 9567.74, CAC 40 up 20.01 pts or +0.25% at 8002.66 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 16.74 pts or +0.3% at 5531.83.
  • Dow Jones mini up 16 pts or +0.03% at 46331, S&P 500 mini up 21.25 pts or +0.32% at 6640.25, NASDAQ mini up 131.5 pts or +0.54% at 24432.75.

EQUITY OPTIONS: Estoxx Put Spread

Nov-24 10:06

SX5E (20th Feb) 5000/4750ps, bought for 21.2 and 21.3 in 14k.