EU: Zelenskyy Says He & Lagarde Held Talks On Using Frozen Russian Assets

Oct-10 11:45

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesnkyy posts on X following a call with ECB President Christine Lagarde. Zelesnkyy: "We discussed how to ensure the fair use of frozen Russian assets to protect against Russia’s war and to help rebuild life in Ukraine. There are solutions for how this can be done. I am grateful for the support. There must be sufficient political will in Europe, as most of these assets are concentrated there. The majority of our partners support us in this effort, and we count on action."

  • The EU is considering the potential use of ~EUR140bln in frozen Russian assets as part of a 'reparation loan', a complex plan for using the funds without seizing them that sits in something of a legal grey area.
  • Lagarde has been seen as an obstacle to any plans, raising concerns on financial stability. Speaking to MEPs on 6 Oct, Lagarde said "...with in mind financial stability and the strength of the euro, we will be looking very attentively to make sure that what is proposed is in accordance with international law (and) is mindful of financial stability."
  • There remain divisions within the EU regarding the plans. Speaking ahead of the ECOFIN meeting, Sweden's Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said, “We will do whatever it takes to get all countries on board”. Constrast with Belgian PM Bart De Wever warning his gov't would not approve a plan unless guaranteed by other EU countries (the assets are largely held at Belgium's Euroclear, meaning Brussels carries the legal risk should the assets be seized). 

Historical bullets

SNB: SNB To Start Publishing Meeting Summaries from Sep Meeting

Sep-10 11:45
  • SNB Chair Schlegel has announced in a speech today that the SNB will start publishing meeting summaries from the 25 September meeting. We see no signal for SNB near-term monetary policy from the announcement:
  • "Starting with the next quarterly assessment, we will publish a summary of our monetary policy discussions. The summary will be published four weeks after the monetary policy decision. It will cover the two days of the monetary policy assessment and provide our view of the economic and monetary situation. The new summary will present the main points from the Governing Board’s discussions. It aims to promote a better understanding of how we apply our monetary strategy to the situation at hand", SNB Chairman Schlegel says today at his speech before the Ticino Bankers’ Association in Vezia.
  • "The summary will not include details of individual positions. Rather it will present the deliberations and decision of the Governing Board collectively", Schlegel adds.

EGB SYNDICATION: Luxembourg New 10-Year Sep-35 LGB: Allocations

Sep-10 11:41
  • Spread set at MS + 30bp (Guidance was MS+35bps area then revised to MS+32bps area )
  • Size: E2.5bln (MNI pencilled in a transaction size of E1.00-1.75bln so this is larger than we expected)
  • Books in excess of E18bln ex JLM interest
  • Maturity: 17-September-2035
  • Settlement: 17-September-2025 (T+5)
  • Hedge ratio: 99.5% vs 2.60% Aug-35 Bund
  • ISIN: LU3182454440
  • Bookrunners: BofA / BCEE / CACIB / DB / SG (B&D)
  • Timing: Hedge deadline 13:00BST / 14:00CET. Pricing later today
From market source / MNI colour

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present

Sep-10 11:32
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus this week’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, A 2.382 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3474.7, the 20-day EMA.
  • In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.