BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Support
- RES 4: 118.635 1.500 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 118.561 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 118.469 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 118.090/400 High Sep 18 / High Sep 8 and 10
- PRICE: 117.820 @ 06:12 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 117.760 Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: 117.690 Low Sep 2
- SUP 3: 117.630 Low Aug 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 117.481 123.6% retracement projection of Aug 25 - 28 rally
Bobl futures are trading below their recent highs. The latest pullback has exposed support at 117.690, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential short-term reversal and instead suggest scope for a climb towards 118.400, the Sep 8 and 10 high.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2
- RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3595 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 1.3476 @ 06:22 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 1.3462 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3449 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3400 Low Aug 11
- SUP 4: 1.3346 Low Aug 7
The latest pullback in GBPUSD, for now, appears corrective and a bullish condition remains intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Clearance of this level would strengthen the S/T bull theme. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3449, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Manufacturing / Services / Composite PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 23-Aug | 1725 | --- | BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole |
| 26-Aug | 0001 | Aug | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26-Aug | - | --- | DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 26-Aug | 1700 | --- | BOE Mann at Banxico Conference |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Aug | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul/Aug | Lending to Individuals / M4 / S&P Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global / CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
| 04-Sep | 0930 | Aug | Decision Maker Panel data / S&P Construction PMI |
| 05-Sep | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 08-Sep | 0001 | --- | KPMG / REC Report on Jobs |
| 09-Sep | 0001 | Aug | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
OIL: US Inventory Data Help To Stabilise Crude
Crude has stabilised during today’s APAC session after falling over a percent on Tuesday. US industry data showing a crude inventory build has provided some support with WTI up 0.4% to $62.04/bbl (Oct contract) off its intraday low of $61.83. Brent is 0.3% higher at $66.00 after falling to $65.81. The USD index is up 0.1%.
- With OPEC steadily increasing its production targets and forecasts for a growing market surplus, supply trends are being monitored closely. CBA is forecasting Brent to fall to $63/bbl in Q4 2025 due to rising global inventories, according to Bloomberg.
- While a Ukraine deal is a long way off, progress increases expectations that eventually sanctions on Russia will be eased. A setback could see the recent sell off reverse.
- Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory draw of 2.4mn barrels last week, more than offsetting last week’s 1.5mn build. Gasoline stocks fell 1mn barrels but distillate rose 500k, according to people familiar with the API data. The official EIA data is out today.
- Later the Fed’s Waller and Bostic appear and the July FOMC meeting minutes are published. Friday’s Chair Powell speech is likely the key event remaining this week.
- UK July CPI & PPI, euro area July CPI and German July PPI print. ECB President Lagarde appears on a panel.
