BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• The German Bund saw a small gap higher on the Open, this resides at 128.26, but the contract hasn't quite challenged last Week's high at 128.42, the Initial resistance.
• Above the Latter, opens to 128.82 followed by the 129.13 Gap.
• Support moves up to 127.88, last Week's low and 127.61.
• This is an extremely busy Week ahead, but a very light start in terms of Tier 1 Data, Today only sees Spanish prelim CPI.
• Month End in Govies are average for Europe, small for the US and a non Event for the UK, the Data and the US Government shutdown potential will drive Global Assets.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Muller Cipollone, Centeno, Schnabel, Nagel, Lane, Fed Waller, Hammack, Bostic, BoE Ramsden.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 175.13 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 174.36 @ 07:14 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 173.67/172.35 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.67, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.74/120.74 20-day EMA / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.46 @ Close Sep 26
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.