SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Southbound
- RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4
- RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
- RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 106.940 @ 06:10 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish. Thursday’s move lower delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.9000 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8
- RES 1: 0.8674 High Aug 25
- PRICE: 0.8636 @ 06:45 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
Short-term gains in EURGBP are considered corrective - for now. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. On the downside, note that recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. The cross has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8622. A clear breach of these supports would highlight a stronger bear reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point.
EQUITY OPTIONS: Large CAC Option Block trade
Large CAC Option Block trade last night:
- CAC (21st Nov) 7400/7200ps, bought for 40.15 in 11k (circa €850mln Notional).
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 25 August
Italy is still due to sell bills this week while Germany, France and Austria already came to the market earlier this week. We expect issuance to be E18.8bln in first round operations, up from E14.8bln last week.
To conclude bill issuance for the week this morning, Italy will look to sell E3bln of the 5-month Jan 30, 2026 BOT.
