SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $4035.6 - 2.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4000.0 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3945.2 - High Oct 6              
• PRICE: $3928.2 @ 07:26 BST Oct 6
• SUP 1: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2  
• SUP 2: $3731.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
• SUP 4: $3585.1 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and today’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that corrections, when they do occur, are shallow. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3987.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $65.26 @ 07:08 BST Oct 6
• SUP 1: $64.00 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact. Last week’s sell-off saw the contract trade through key support and the bear trigger at $64.20, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. A break of this level would instead signal a reversal.

• The German Bund gapped lower on the Open led by the French OAT, President Macron's choice to keep his Cabinet unchanged is putting risk on PM Lecornu's potential survival this Week.
• Despite some of the Overnight moves, both the OAT and the Bund are still short of their supports, this was seen at 128.26 (gap) in Bund, closed down to 128.24 last Wednesday.
• The identical gap in French OAT was at 120.99, but the contract only managed a 121.00 low last Wednesday.
• The resistance in Bund is unchanged at 128.82.
• It's a lighter Week on the Data front, the EU Retail Sales is the only notable release for Today, instead near term focus will be on the state of French politics this Week for Europe.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Lane, Escriva, Lagarde, BoE Bailey, Fed Schmid.