BUND TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.60 @ 06:53 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 128.24/127.88 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trade closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 128.84, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and potentially expose key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open 127.88, Sep 25 low. Key medium-term support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, Sep 3 low.

Finland has announced it will be looking to sell up to a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, October 14:

• the 7-month May-26 RFTB
• the 8-month Aug-26 RFTB

No real reaction in SEK to the September flash CPIF ex-energy inflation reading.  Note that CPIF ex-energy at 2.70% Y/Y was in line with the Riksbank’s September MPR projection, but a touch below consensus (2.69% Riksbank, 2.8% cons, 2.92% prior).

• Riksbank likely remains on hold at 1.75% going forward, this flash print doesn’t change that outlook.
• Headline CPIF inflation was 3.09% Y/Y (vs 3.04% Riksbank, 3.25% prior).
• Full CPI details released next Wednesday.