BUND TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 130.07 High Oct 24
- RES 1: 129.47/129.73 High Nov 5 / High Oct 28
- PRICE: 129.06 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 128.96 Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7
A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The print below a key support at 129.14, the 50-day EMA, signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support is 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
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BUND TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5
- RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17
- RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg
- PRICE: 128.60 @ 06:53 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 128.24/127.88 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trade closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 128.84, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and potentially expose key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open 127.88, Sep 25 low. Key medium-term support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, Sep 3 low.
FINLAND T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Finland has announced it will be looking to sell up to a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, October 14:
- the 7-month May-26 RFTB
- the 8-month Aug-26 RFTB
SWEDEN: Flash CPIF ex-energy In Line With Riksbank Projection; No Policy Signal
No real reaction in SEK to the September flash CPIF ex-energy inflation reading. Note that CPIF ex-energy at 2.70% Y/Y was in line with the Riksbank’s September MPR projection, but a touch below consensus (2.69% Riksbank, 2.8% cons, 2.92% prior).
- Riksbank likely remains on hold at 1.75% going forward, this flash print doesn’t change that outlook.
- Headline CPIF inflation was 3.09% Y/Y (vs 3.04% Riksbank, 3.25% prior).
- Full CPI details released next Wednesday.
