BUND TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• Q2 and Q1 GDP both unrevised.
• 2024 annual GDP is unrevised at 1.1% but there have been downward revisions to H2-23 GDP and Q1-24 and upside revisions to Q2-24, Q3-24 and Q4-24.
• "The level of GDP in Quarter 2 2025 compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 is now estimated to be 2.9% higher, revised up from the first estimate of 2.6%." ONS
• This includes the Blue Book new methodology and corrections for retail sales (and likely for PPI too). It will be reflected in the next monthly series' release.
• Additionally, it will be used by the OBR for its Budget forecasts, so there is more focus than usual on a final print - but as it came in line with expectations there is no notable market movements here.

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.89 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures have recovered from their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 148.27 @ 07:01 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 148.08/147.59 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18  
• SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high print. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 147.59, the 50-day EMA. Pivot support has been defined at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.