BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle Low

• Africa has become a new hotspot for Chinese exports as Donald Trump’s tariffs redraw trade for the world’s biggest manufacturing nation.  With a 25% on-year jump to $122 billion, growth in sales to the continent of 1.5 billion people has far outpaced other major markets this year while orders from the US slumped. China’s exports to Africa so far in 2025 are more than in the whole of 2020 and on track to exceed $200 billion for the first time.  Although the trading relationship shows no sign of becoming less lopsided, with China running a far wider surplus with Africa than last year, Beijing is cracking open its domestic market while seizing on the chance to meet the continent’s infrastructure needs.  (source BBG)
• China's Industrial Profit in July declined, marking a third consecutive month.  China Industrial Profits YoY contracted -1.5%, following -4.3% in June.
• This is the seventh monthly decline out of the prior 12.  The Year to date result of -1.70% was in line with the prior month's result of -1.8%.  The Year to date Industrial Company's Profit was CNY4.02tn.  (source MNI)
• President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that promoting the high-level development of China-Russia relations with tireless efforts serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples and provides a source of stability for world peace.  Xi made the remarks during a meeting with Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Russian parliament's lower house, the State Duma, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.  The president said that in today's world of turbulence and transformation, the China-Russia relationship is unparalleled in terms of stability, maturity and strategic significance among major-country relation.  (source China Daily)
• Whilst the Hang Seng hovered around where it opened, the onshore offshore divide continues with the CSI 300 up +0.72%, Shanghai up +0.33% and Shenzhen one of the best regional performers up +0.80%.
• Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1108 Per USD; Estimate 7.1546
• Government bond yields are steady with the CGB 10yr at 1.77%

July CPI printed higher than expected impacted by the timing of Commonwealth government electricity rebates. However, both the trimmed mean and CPI ex volatile items & holiday travel saw a sizeable pickup. While this is only the first month in Q3, Westpac says it is suggesting upside risks to its quarterly forecast of 0.8% q/q & 2.7% y/y for headline and 0.6% q/q & 2.4% y/y for trimmed mean. It notes that the 0.9% m/m rise in headline showed a “potentially important shift in inflation dynamics”.

• Westpac states that the material increase in underlying inflation measures in July “should not be ignored” and that the RBA is likely to be on hold in September to wait for Q3 CPI on October 29.
• “Excluding volatile items and holiday travel, the Monthly CPI rose 3.2%yr in July, up from 2.5%yr in June and marking the fastest pace in over a year (since June 2024). This measure excludes automotive fuel, fruit and vegetables, and holiday travel and accommodation.”
• “July is the first month of the quarter, so we also received updates on quarterly price surveys, primarily for durable goods.”
• “New dwelling prices rose 0.4% in July, stronger than our 0.2% estimate. The ABS attributed this to project home builders increasing prices and reducing discounts. This presents upside risk to our September quarter dwelling price forecast, particularly if this momentum continues into August and September.”
• “The quarterly CPI is not a simple average of the Monthly CPI Indicator. History shows that taking the monthly data at face value can be misleading. Several volatile components—such as food, automotive fuel, and household durables—can reverse more quickly than reflected in our current monthly profile.”