BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook

• Oil rose Monday, after a very poor finish last week.  WTI is up +0.64% to USD$63.08 bbl and Brent is up +0.66% to USD$67.12 bbl in the Asia trading day.
• Late Friday the EU President indicated the latest move is to target refineries, traders and petrochemical companies that are still buying Russian oil in a bid to starve Moscow and end the war in Ukraine.  China and India remain the highest profile of buyers but the EU seems intent on casting the net much wider.  
• This comes as French President Macro describes the EU's reliance on Russia now as 'marginal' as Trump continues to pressure Europe to eradicate Russian purchases.   
• The EU has already passed a ban that will prohibit importing petroleum products refined from Russia crude starting next year, and the bloc is discussing banning imports of Russian liquefied natural gas from 2027.
• WTI remains firmly below all major moving averages today, despite the gains. 

• Gold is reaching yet another new high as it rises +0.21% today to USD$3,693.00.  The recent cut in interest rates gave a further boost to gold, already with strong upward momentum with traders now pouring over Chairman Powell's comments for clues as to the next move.  
• At $3,693 gold is above all major moving averages with the 20-day of $3,588.90 below.

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.63 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 128.03 @ 05:49 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 128.03 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures remain below their latest highs and are trading lower as the contract starts the day on a bearish note. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break if this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.63, the 20-day EMA.

JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -30 compared to the settlement levels.

• Japan’s LDP leadership candidates delivered policy speeches in Tokyo, with lawmaker Toshimitsu Motegi pledging to uphold a policy of no tax increases. Kobayashi announced plans to enhance screening for foreign inward investment. A recent poll shows Takaichi as the top pick to lead the LDP with 28.3% support. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi noted that Japan’s past aversion to a strong yen has diminished but warned that potential Fed rate cuts could strengthen the yen and hurt the export-reliant economy.
• The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, but two members dissented in favour of a 25bp hike, arguing the price target is "more or less achieved" and rates should move "closer to neutral," highlighting stronger hawkish voices within the board. See the full MNI BoJ Review here: 
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's modest sell-off.
• Cash JGBs are 1-5bps cheaper across benchmarks, led by the futures-linked 7-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.3bp higher at 1.667%, a new cycle high.
• Swap rates are 2-4bps higher. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be closed for a holiday.