SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook

Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E19.1bln in first round operations, down from E25.5bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the new 12-month Sep 16, 2026 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 4.5-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5.5-month Feb 26, 2026 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.7bln of 15/23/25/51-week BTFs: E2.8-3.2bln of the new 15-week Dec 31, 2025 BTF, E0.1-0.5bln of the 23-week Feb 25,2 026 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 25-week Mar 11, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 51-week Sep 9, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Mar 19, 2026 bills.
• On Wednesday morning, Portugal will look to issue a combined E1.50-1.75bln of the 10-month Jul 17, 2026 BT and the new 12-month Sep 18. 2026 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Sep 4, 2026 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8687/8713 High Sep 5 / 2  
• PRICE: 0.8646 @ 06:40 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 0.8637/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. This highlights a dominant uptrend.

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.000 @ 06:05 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 106.965 Low Sep 12   
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and last week’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.